My election prediction!

Jarod

Jarod

Well-known member
Contributor
I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, I have been wrong as much as I am correct. I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.

However, I have been studying this years election and where we are and I have been asked to offer a prediction..... Until now I have held off because I did not think it was reasonable to make a prediction because it has been nothing but a shot in the dark, but I think I am ready to say that we have enough evidence to make a guess with a reasonable degree of likelihood that will be correct.

The polling this year is very unusually consistent, and that makes it a lot different than in 2016. Most Americans have made their mind up about Donald Trump and more recently seem to have rejected the idea that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden, in the eyes of many is a reasonable alternative.

With a majority of voters seeming to have decided that Trump is not a good choice and that Biden is an acceptable one, and Biden polling over 50% in enough states to put his electoral vote count above 270 (This occured last week.) I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

I was going to post this over the weekend, but decided to wait and consider if I felt the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg would affect the outcome. I have thought about it, and read some thoughts of experts and talked to people I respect and I believe it will not fundamentally change the outcome, and if it does... it has just as much a chance of helping Biden as it does of helping Trump*.

I am happy to discuss...

Change my mind?!?!?!?
 
I hope you are correct, Jarod.

But I am not making any predictions, because NOTHING would surprise me at this point.

I will say this, though: Trump would happily tear down the United States if he loses. Make no mistake about it...he would leave destruction in his wake as he leaves.
 
Frank Apisa said:
I hope you are correct, Jarod.

But I am not making any predictions, because NOTHING would surprise me at this point.

I will say this, though: Trump would happily tear down the United States if he loses. Make no mistake about it...he would leave destruction in his wake as he leaves.
Click to expand...

Yes, he will try to tear the country down as he leaves.
 
The coming hissy fit riots over the SCOTUS will turn many undecided and on the fence voters it will be a loser for the Dems and will gain them nothing.
 
Jarod said:
I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, ......I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.
Click to expand...

You've been wrong every time you bloviate your lie filled stupidity here snowflake. :palm:

Jarod said:
I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.
Click to expand...

SAVED! A pretend lawyer who can't spell column. Whodda think it. :laugh: TAKE MY BET NOW: https://www.justplainpolitics.com/s...berals-are-strongly-encouraged-to-participate
 
Frank Apisa said:
Trump would happily tear down the United States if he loses. Make no mistake about it...he would leave destruction in his wake as he leaves.
Click to expand...

Wrong again you whiny, lying asshole; that's what the left has been doing and are threatening to do. I hope they take to the streets with their guns after Trump's re-election. Great target practice. ;)
 
ExpressLane said:
The coming hissy fit riots over the SCOTUS will turn many undecided and on the fence voters it will be a loser for the Dems and will gain them nothing.
Click to expand...

You mean like it was in 2018 with Kavanaugh?

What happened in 2018?

Oh right, the Democrats won the House with a 10,000,000 vote margin.
 
ExpressLane said:
The coming hissy fit riots over the SCOTUS will turn many undecided and on the fence voters it will be a loser for the Dems and will gain them nothing.
Click to expand...

I am more convinced I am correct. Above is the only argument anyone could come up with since I posted this thread. Its not much of an argument but at least it was an attempt. Looks like those who can think logically dont disagree with my prediction.
 
Jarod said:
I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, I have been wrong as much as I am correct. I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.

However, I have been studying this years election and where we are and I have been asked to offer a prediction..... Until now I have held off because I did not think it was reasonable to make a prediction because it has been nothing but a shot in the dark, but I think I am ready to say that we have enough evidence to make a guess with a reasonable degree of likelihood that will be correct.

The polling this year is very unusually consistent, and that makes it a lot different than in 2016. Most Americans have made their mind up about Donald Trump and more recently seem to have rejected the idea that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden, in the eyes of many is a reasonable alternative.

With a majority of voters seeming to have decided that Trump is not a good choice and that Biden is an acceptable one, and Biden polling over 50% in enough states to put his electoral vote count above 270 (This occured last week.) I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

I was going to post this over the weekend, but decided to wait and consider if I felt the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg would affect the outcome. I have thought about it, and read some thoughts of experts and talked to people I respect and I believe it will not fundamentally change the outcome, and if it does... it has just as much a chance of helping Biden as it does of helping Trump*.

I am happy to discuss...

Change my mind?!?!?!?
Click to expand...

I think Biden will win the popular vote by at least 5 million.

I think the Democrats will flip the seats they need to take the Senate back.

I think the Democrats will expand their House majority by about 10 seats.

I think Biden surprises with a win in Georgia, but I think he loses Texas by less than 2%.

On a state level, I think if Biden wins Texas, the state legislature will flip to blue.

I think there's going to be several state houses that change hands.

This SCOTUS fight is what motivated Democrats in 2018...no reason to believe they wouldn't repeat that performance in 2020.
 
Jarod said:
I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, I have been wrong as much as I am correct. I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.

However, I have been studying this years election and where we are and I have been asked to offer a prediction..... Until now I have held off because I did not think it was reasonable to make a prediction because it has been nothing but a shot in the dark, but I think I am ready to say that we have enough evidence to make a guess with a reasonable degree of likelihood that will be correct.

The polling this year is very unusually consistent, and that makes it a lot different than in 2016. Most Americans have made their mind up about Donald Trump and more recently seem to have rejected the idea that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden, in the eyes of many is a reasonable alternative.

With a majority of voters seeming to have decided that Trump is not a good choice and that Biden is an acceptable one, and Biden polling over 50% in enough states to put his electoral vote count above 270 (This occured last week.) I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

I was going to post this over the weekend, but decided to wait and consider if I felt the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg would affect the outcome. I have thought about it, and read some thoughts of experts and talked to people I respect and I believe it will not fundamentally change the outcome, and if it does... it has just as much a chance of helping Biden as it does of helping Trump*.

I am happy to discuss...

Change my mind?!?!?!?
Click to expand...

Why would you want someone to change your mind?

Funny that only a few days ago you weren’t making predictions.

Too funny
 
LV426 said:
I think Biden will win the popular vote by at least 5 million.

I think the Democrats will flip the seats they need to take the Senate back.

I think the Democrats will expand their House majority by about 10 seats.

I think Biden surprises with a win in Georgia, but I think he loses Texas by less than 2%.

On a state level, I think if Biden wins Texas, the state legislature will flip to blue.

I think there's going to be several state houses that change hands.

This SCOTUS fight is what motivated Democrats in 2018...no reason to believe they wouldn't repeat that performance in 2020.
Click to expand...

I think you are likely correct about the SCOUTS fight, it will blow up for them, I think they know it also, but what can they do...

I do not think Biden will get Georgia, they have closed down lots of polling sites in minority areas and have made the lines very long to vote.
I think Texas will be 3-4% for Trump.

I like your thoughts about SOCUTS.
 
Joe Hiden said:
Why would you want someone to change your mind?

Funny that only a few days ago you weren’t making predictions.

Too funny
Click to expand...

I would like to hear a compelling argument about why I am wrong, I always like to learn.
 
LV426 said:
You mean like it was in 2018 with Kavanaugh?What happened in 2018?

Oh right, the Democrats won the House with a 10,000,000 vote margin.
Click to expand...

the House wasn't involved with the Kavanaugh hearings......the senate was......the Demmycrats lost seats in the senate.....
 
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