Русский агент
Путин - мl
A survey from the Princeton Election Consortium found that Hillary Clinton had a 99 per cent chance of winning the election over Donald Trump.
In 2012, his own campaign's polls, among others, predicted Mitt Romney would defeat Obama for the presidency.
Two years later, surveys in Kentucky suggested then-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would lose his seat.
Three different public-opinion polls, three important elections, three decisively erroneous results.
Public opinion polls have racked up big-time fails in recent years, embarrassments that compelled a leading firm to conduct an internal audit to find out what went wrong.
Analysts are also openly questioning whether the industry has kept up with a rapidly transforming, highly-mobile electorate – one that's relying on everyday technology to opt out.
A boorish reality-TV billionaire with zero political experience and no apparent verbal filter shot past a dozen experienced politicians in presidential opinion polls to become the president.
"The science of public surveying is in something of a crisis right now," says Geoffrey Skelley, a political analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. Errors, and a steep decline in the number of people responding to opinion surveys, is a trend because one of the main claims of polling is that it represents the people's views.
It's a different world now.
Gallup says it made mistakes in its core samples, including its racial makeup and political ideology, as well as its overall methodology.
Gallup's audit, however, also says the entire industry is due for an overhaul, with some of the leading firms using analog, black-and-white methods in a digital, multicultural world. Case in point: the rise of the cell phone and the fall of public engagement in opinion surveys.
Besides not being tied to a fixed address – it's not unusual for owners to have a different area code than where they actually live, and the numbers usually aren't listed in the white pages – cell phones provide more control over its users' privacy than a landline. It's likely, analysts say, that the ability to screen or block incoming calls has accelerated the public's unwillingness to take part.
The industry is worried about the falling response rate. the technology factor likely slanted 2015 polls in Israel indicating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party was locked in a dead heat with the opposition days before high-stakes parliamentary elections. Likud, however, won in a blowout, handing Netanyahu another term and giving the polling industry another headache.
A federal law designed to protect consumers from aggressive debt collectors or telemarketers bans pollsters from using automated calls to get opinions. Other factors include gated, private communities that door-to-door surveyors can't reach, and survey subjects who don't speak English as a first language.
Gallup and others spend far more time, effort and money than ever before, trying to get opinions.
Another key factor is polling firms' methodologies. Put simply, if you ask the right sampling of people the wrong thing – questioning Virginia residents in 2014, for example, whether they prefer Rep. Eric Cantor, a veteran politician with wide name recognition, or Dave Brat, his unknown challenger, without determining if they'll actually show up to vote – you'll get a bad result.
https://www.usnews.com/news/the-rep...lic-opinion-polls-are-increasingly-inaccurate
In 2012, his own campaign's polls, among others, predicted Mitt Romney would defeat Obama for the presidency.
Two years later, surveys in Kentucky suggested then-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would lose his seat.
Three different public-opinion polls, three important elections, three decisively erroneous results.
Public opinion polls have racked up big-time fails in recent years, embarrassments that compelled a leading firm to conduct an internal audit to find out what went wrong.
Analysts are also openly questioning whether the industry has kept up with a rapidly transforming, highly-mobile electorate – one that's relying on everyday technology to opt out.
A boorish reality-TV billionaire with zero political experience and no apparent verbal filter shot past a dozen experienced politicians in presidential opinion polls to become the president.
"The science of public surveying is in something of a crisis right now," says Geoffrey Skelley, a political analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. Errors, and a steep decline in the number of people responding to opinion surveys, is a trend because one of the main claims of polling is that it represents the people's views.
It's a different world now.
Gallup says it made mistakes in its core samples, including its racial makeup and political ideology, as well as its overall methodology.
Gallup's audit, however, also says the entire industry is due for an overhaul, with some of the leading firms using analog, black-and-white methods in a digital, multicultural world. Case in point: the rise of the cell phone and the fall of public engagement in opinion surveys.
Besides not being tied to a fixed address – it's not unusual for owners to have a different area code than where they actually live, and the numbers usually aren't listed in the white pages – cell phones provide more control over its users' privacy than a landline. It's likely, analysts say, that the ability to screen or block incoming calls has accelerated the public's unwillingness to take part.
The industry is worried about the falling response rate. the technology factor likely slanted 2015 polls in Israel indicating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party was locked in a dead heat with the opposition days before high-stakes parliamentary elections. Likud, however, won in a blowout, handing Netanyahu another term and giving the polling industry another headache.
A federal law designed to protect consumers from aggressive debt collectors or telemarketers bans pollsters from using automated calls to get opinions. Other factors include gated, private communities that door-to-door surveyors can't reach, and survey subjects who don't speak English as a first language.
Gallup and others spend far more time, effort and money than ever before, trying to get opinions.
Another key factor is polling firms' methodologies. Put simply, if you ask the right sampling of people the wrong thing – questioning Virginia residents in 2014, for example, whether they prefer Rep. Eric Cantor, a veteran politician with wide name recognition, or Dave Brat, his unknown challenger, without determining if they'll actually show up to vote – you'll get a bad result.
https://www.usnews.com/news/the-rep...lic-opinion-polls-are-increasingly-inaccurate