Jarod is calling the game before it's over. It's only been a couple of weeks, and Trump has been talking about wrapping this up in his four-to-six-week window. We'll see what the actual end state looks like instead of declaring right now that Iran "won" the Strait of Hormuz.
The way Trump is downplaying the Strait right now, saying the U.S. isn't responsible for reopening it and that Europe should "go get your own oil", looks like his "classic" leverage play. Europe (especially France, Spain, and Italy) has been blocking or heavily restricting U.S. and Israeli overflights, basing rights, and logistics for these operations. By signaling "we have access to two oceans, this isn't our problem long-term," he's putting the heat on them. They depend far more on that oil flow than we do, and he's basically telling them to step up or live with the consequences, and by stepping up he could literally mean stop standing in the way and let us work, the same way he keeps hammering NATO as a one-way street where America defends them but they won't help when we ask.
Trump wants it to seem he believes he can hit Iran's nuclear program hard enough to set it back, declare the main objectives met, and exit without owning the endless policing of the Strait. However to me he doesn't appear ready to walk away and just hand permanent control to Iran, though, the tough talk seems designed to force Europe (and others) to get out of the way and let us do the job they rely on the US for.
Personally, I wouldn't have started an operation like this without reliable backup already lined up in advance, more than just Israel, as their power is literally equipment we give them. I don't like him stumbling into the shop, breaking stuff, then turning around and telling Europe they need to help clean up the mess. And I definitely wouldn't support leaving Iran effectively in charge of the Strait of Hormuz as some kind of exit deal. That's too critical a chokepoint for the world's energy to concede. I think he knows that, he's just noting the incentive countries like Spain have to let us fly into the bases we have in their nations.
Whether this approach actually works or just creates more loose ends... time will tell once the dust settles.
