Hi everyone! Its me! Most of you probably dont remember me but I used to frequent this site and wrote articles. Im trying to get back into politics and geopolitics now and even started my own youtube podcast 
. I remember I used to love the discussion in this place. I even had a emoji named after me.
Anywhoo on to the point.
So how would a war in Iran go. Lets start of with the Iranian side.
The number one goal of the Iranians aside from surviving is going to be to kill as many Americans as possible. If they can get 10+ kills they would claim that as a victory. As is usual with members of "axis of resistance" countries they dont care about defense. The entire country could be reduced to a smoldering ruin like Gaza and as long as they survive they will call it a victory. So how would this go. For reference here is a picture of the ME with US bases.
We have 3 major concentrations of US life. USS Gerald Ford CBG. USS Abraham Lincoln CBG and the various American bases.
My prediction is that the USS Gerald Ford group will be completely safe. The bad restrooms they apparently have is the biggest danger they will face. They are located in the mediteranian sea. I dont even think Iranian missiles reach that far and in any case they will have to be found first. The same goes for the Abraham lincoln CBG. They are somewhere in the middle of the indian ocean and the arabian sea. Its practically impossible to find the CBGs in open ocean. At this point people usually bring up the action during the Yemen war where some aircraft were lost and some ships took hits. Remember that the mission then was to keep the straits open as Yemen was hitting ships there and using helicopters to capture others. The CVG then had to be located close to land, within visual site of the Houthi forces.
That leaves the bases. Luckily it seems that the Trump and co have realized this vulnerability and have begun to evacuate those bases. This leaves Iran with no American lives in easy reach which means they will go for the second option. Israel. I expect Israel will be hit heavily in the coming war with widespread damage and casualties in the tens to the low hundreds. This is a point against the Israelis pushing for this war as they know they will take the majority of the damage.
A lot has also been said about Chinese weapons deals and Russian missile and drone support. All I have to say is they better get there by Fedex because otherwise its going to be too late. I think most of these weapons are not even scheduled to be delivered until 2027. I fully expect Iran to stand alone or with the help of their own proxy groups.
It has also been said that Iran will blockade the Straits of Hormuz ruining global oil supplies. First off it will not ruin global oil supplies. Most of those ships go to Asia. The ships bound for the west would leave via the other sea next to the Suez canal. It would only ruin Chinas oil supply. In any case any country affected has enough SPR to ride out any price variances. I dont expect this conflict to last more than a month anyway.
US side.
US has 2 win conditions. Regime change or Regime collapse. I doubt Trump cares which.
I fully expect US to use its air power as normal with Israeli help and we all know how that goes so we dont need to expand on that.
In addition to this I expect US to use the different ethnic groups of Iran to its advantage. It has not been widely reported but Vance recently visited Azerbeijan maybe one or two weeks ago. Azerbeijan is a great ally of Israel and is capable enough to destroy Armenia and take part of their land in a recent war. This shows that they are perfectly willing to use force to acquire new land given the opportunity. When war starts I expect the provinces of West and East Azerbeijan Ardabil Zanjan and Kurdistan to break away from Iran and request protection from Azerbeijan. They will then move their army in and be on the defensive with the help of US air power. That takes care of most of northwest Iran. On the other end SouthEast I expect Baluchistan to revolt on its own with support from the US as well. The northern areas are populated by Kurds and Azeris who dont like the government and the southern part by Baluchis.
From there I expect it will just be a matter of killing enough people till you find a willing puppet like Delci.
Ultimate Prediction : US win. Smaller Iran. Bigger Azerbeijan. Few US casualties. Massive Israeli casualties and damage. Iran government similar to Venezuela.
. I remember I used to love the discussion in this place. I even had a emoji named after me.Anywhoo on to the point.
So how would a war in Iran go. Lets start of with the Iranian side.
The number one goal of the Iranians aside from surviving is going to be to kill as many Americans as possible. If they can get 10+ kills they would claim that as a victory. As is usual with members of "axis of resistance" countries they dont care about defense. The entire country could be reduced to a smoldering ruin like Gaza and as long as they survive they will call it a victory. So how would this go. For reference here is a picture of the ME with US bases.
We have 3 major concentrations of US life. USS Gerald Ford CBG. USS Abraham Lincoln CBG and the various American bases.
My prediction is that the USS Gerald Ford group will be completely safe. The bad restrooms they apparently have is the biggest danger they will face. They are located in the mediteranian sea. I dont even think Iranian missiles reach that far and in any case they will have to be found first. The same goes for the Abraham lincoln CBG. They are somewhere in the middle of the indian ocean and the arabian sea. Its practically impossible to find the CBGs in open ocean. At this point people usually bring up the action during the Yemen war where some aircraft were lost and some ships took hits. Remember that the mission then was to keep the straits open as Yemen was hitting ships there and using helicopters to capture others. The CVG then had to be located close to land, within visual site of the Houthi forces.
That leaves the bases. Luckily it seems that the Trump and co have realized this vulnerability and have begun to evacuate those bases. This leaves Iran with no American lives in easy reach which means they will go for the second option. Israel. I expect Israel will be hit heavily in the coming war with widespread damage and casualties in the tens to the low hundreds. This is a point against the Israelis pushing for this war as they know they will take the majority of the damage.
A lot has also been said about Chinese weapons deals and Russian missile and drone support. All I have to say is they better get there by Fedex because otherwise its going to be too late. I think most of these weapons are not even scheduled to be delivered until 2027. I fully expect Iran to stand alone or with the help of their own proxy groups.
It has also been said that Iran will blockade the Straits of Hormuz ruining global oil supplies. First off it will not ruin global oil supplies. Most of those ships go to Asia. The ships bound for the west would leave via the other sea next to the Suez canal. It would only ruin Chinas oil supply. In any case any country affected has enough SPR to ride out any price variances. I dont expect this conflict to last more than a month anyway.
US side.
US has 2 win conditions. Regime change or Regime collapse. I doubt Trump cares which.
I fully expect US to use its air power as normal with Israeli help and we all know how that goes so we dont need to expand on that.
In addition to this I expect US to use the different ethnic groups of Iran to its advantage. It has not been widely reported but Vance recently visited Azerbeijan maybe one or two weeks ago. Azerbeijan is a great ally of Israel and is capable enough to destroy Armenia and take part of their land in a recent war. This shows that they are perfectly willing to use force to acquire new land given the opportunity. When war starts I expect the provinces of West and East Azerbeijan Ardabil Zanjan and Kurdistan to break away from Iran and request protection from Azerbeijan. They will then move their army in and be on the defensive with the help of US air power. That takes care of most of northwest Iran. On the other end SouthEast I expect Baluchistan to revolt on its own with support from the US as well. The northern areas are populated by Kurds and Azeris who dont like the government and the southern part by Baluchis.
From there I expect it will just be a matter of killing enough people till you find a willing puppet like Delci.
Ultimate Prediction : US win. Smaller Iran. Bigger Azerbeijan. Few US casualties. Massive Israeli casualties and damage. Iran government similar to Venezuela.