How many iPads will Apple sell?

[Topspin]

How many iPads will Apple sell?
Posted by Philip Elmer-DeWitt
January 28, 2010 9:00 AM

The Street looked at that $499 price point and hastily revised its numbers


Steve Jobs with his iPad. Photo: Michael Copeland
"It finally gives the right form," writes Oppenheimer's Yair Reiner in what is so far the most lyrical analyst note on Apple's new iPad, "to leisurely functions long trapped, like the Frog Prince, in the body of a late-20th century office productivity tool."

Yet after all that and more ("Copycat devices will pullulate in iPad's wake"), Reiner's estimates of iPad sales are among the lowest — a mere 1.1 million in fiscal 2010. Others were not so conservative. Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has Apple (AAPL) selling 9 million iPads in calendar 2011 at an average sales price of $660, adding $5.9 billion to its bottom line. That's within striking distance of her estimate for the entire iPod line ($6.8 billion).

Below: Our analysts' spreadsheet. We'll update it as more estimates come in.




Unit sales 2010 (millions) Unit sales 2011 (millions) Year (C or F)
Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 7.0 13.0 Calendar
David Bailey, Goldman Sachs 6.2 10.1 Calendar
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 6.0 9.0 Calendar
Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 5.0 10.0 12 mos.
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 3.5 8.0 Calendar
Ben Reitzes, Barclay's Capital 2.9 7.3 Fiscal
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 2.5 5.5 Fiscal
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 2.1 3.8 Calendar
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 2.0 4.0 Calendar
Bill Shope, Credit Suisse 1.8 7.4 Fiscal
Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 1.2 3.7 Fiscal
Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 1.2 3.5 Fiscal
Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 1.1 6.8 Fiscal
Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 1.1 4.0 Fiscal


. . .

(Note that the sales estimates are difficult to compare because they are measured over different time periods. Wu, for example, is using 12 months dating from when the first units ship.)

At least six analysts — Reitzes, Munster, Reiner, Fidacaro, Craig and Bailey — have raised their AAPL targets since the unveiling (to $285, $284, $265, $260, $250 and $240, respectively).

Shares closed Wednesday at $207.88, up 1.03 points (0.5%) for the day. They were down sharply in early trading Thursday.

 

[Chapdog]

I just dont know what I would do with a Giant Itouch.

 

[Topspin]

I just dont know what I would do with a Giant Itouch.

I'm guessing it'll be near the high end of the estimates.
These will be for iphone and apple freaks, watch movies, youtube, gamers, websurfing with Wifi!!!

Several analyst have prices for apple around $275

 

[Chapdog]

I don't know how many regular people are going to buy that thing. Iphone/Itouch is portable pocket gadget. This isnt. I think they would have been better off beefing up iphone with sweet camera and GPS standard. 1 item for everything.

 

[Topspin]

Apple is all about game changing.

Watch this thing rocket. It's more portable than a laptop.

 

[Cancel 2016.2]

I think they would be better off deciding that I didn't have to jump through 4328 different hoops just to sync my ipod with a new computer. I refuse to buy another product from Apple until they change that.

 

[Topspin]

I'll buy one. The iphone has far exceeded my expectations.

 

[Chapdog]

yah no shit. the music I buy on Itunes I only get 5 free music transfers before they become invalid. Im prob on like computer 4 since some of those have been purchased? Crap.

 

[Damocles]

They won't sell nearly as many as they want. They didn't solve problems that they already knew about with the phones.

1. It is plain idiotic that something that has a microphone and connects to the phone network cannot be used as a voice communication device.

2. You STILL can't run more than one app at a time.

3. The memory isn't much more than the phones, the price isn't all that different, and you need a man-purse to carry the thing around with you.

This thing isn't going to sell even close to as well as they thought it would. Even with the free advertising they got from the media. It's like buying a huge retarded iPhone. It doesn't help that Mad TV made fun of the name YEARS before the thing ever came onto the market....

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

yah no shit. the music I buy on Itunes I only get 5 free music transfers before they become invalid.

lol old people.....

http://www.thepiratebay.org

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

3

 

[Topspin]

it's supposed to have equivalent to high def screen, gamers will go bonkers and more movies will be watched on the go than ever in airports etc.

they will sell millions

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

IT'S A BIG IPHONE THAT YOU CAN'T MAKE CALLS WITH! WHOOP-DE-DOO!

Apple isn't even trying this time.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

gamers will go bonkers

Yes, gamers will go bonkers playing 1999 level graphics.

 

[Damocles]

IT'S A BIG IPHONE! WHOOP-DE-DOO!

Apple isn't even trying this time.

A big iPhone that you can't use as a phone... Seriously, the "good video" doesn't make up for the fact that it is a huge retarded phone that can't be used as a phone. It's like buying a 1992 laptop that doesn't have a protective cover for the screen.

 

[Topspin]

It will start by killing the kindle, then the publishing industry model with follow the black hole that is itunes. You guys are underestimating Apple just like you did with the Jesus phone.

 

[Damocles]

It will start by killing the kindle, then the publishing industry model with follow the black hole that is itunes. You guys are underestimating Apple just like you did with the Jesus phone.

I never underestimated the iPhone, that's just uscitizen style historic revisionism. The reality is, out of 50 people I know with iPhones, just one will purchase this huge moronic phone that you can't use as a phone.

Just like true book lovers don't purchase the kindle or the B&N version (can't remember what it is called) because of how books are used that cannot be done with the devices.

One can't just hand them a book they just finished to read without handing them a multi-hundred dollar device... (for instance).

Now, if they had solved some of the issues people have with the iPhone on this device they'd get some of my iPhone friends to buy one. But they didn't.

 

[Chapdog]

It will start by killing the kindle, then the publishing industry model with follow the black hole that is itunes. You guys are underestimating Apple just like you did with the Jesus phone.

I agree it will take out kindle.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

It will start by killing the kindle, then the publishing industry model with follow the black hole that is itunes. You guys are underestimating Apple just like you did with the Jesus phone.

It's supposed to compete with Kindle, so I guess we could add to it the title of Expensive Kindle.

 

[Topspin]

I never underestimated the iPhone, that's just uscitizen style historic revisionism. The reality is, out of 50 people I know with iPhones, just one will purchase this huge moronic phone that you can't use as a phone.

I'm not pointing out specific people, but most where negative.

I'm betting on continued success of the iphone and ipad to get apple above $250. I dropped 50G on aapl and T to double down on the mobile internet wave. Then the market dropped for a week straight.