cawacko
Well-known member
As the article itself says, and as we know from history, poll numbers this far out have to be taken with a large grain of salt. Us political junkies are paying attention to these races but not everyone in America is a political junkie and follows the daily happenings in politics this far out from an election.
That being said Rubio is currently doing better than Trump and Cruz against Hillary in general election polls. What's interesting is he's tied with her among millennials who the Democrats count on as part of their coalition. Again, these polls are fluid and all these numbers will change. But interesting point in time reference.
Should Hillary Clinton be worried about Marco Rubio? Probably. Here’s why.
As you faithful readers are well aware, at this early stage head-to-head general election polling is not at all predictive of campaign outcomes. So take what follows as merely an effort to plant a flag on something to keep an eye out for as the campaign progresses.
There is a striking finding in the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll: Marco Rubio is tied with Hillary Clinton among young voters. Given the importance of Barack Obama’s overwhelming margins among young voters to his two victories — and, more broadly, given that Democrats are betting the future of the party on their rising coalition of young voters and minorities — this is something Democrats should probably start paying attention to right now.
The NBC/WSJ poll’s toplines are that Rubio holds a 48-45 lead over Clinton among adults nationally, effectively a tie. By contrast, Clinton leads Donald Trump by 50-40, and she leads Ted Cruz by 48-45 (also effectively a tie). But note this data from the crosstabs, sent over by the good folks at NBC:
— Clinton and Rubio are tied among voters who are 18-34 years old, 45-45.
— Clinton leads Trump among these voters, 54-33.
— Clinton leads Cruz among these voters, 49-40.
This is only one poll; the sample sizes are not that large; and again, early polling is not predictive. Also, the poll shows Ben Carson also practically ties Clinton among these young voters. But Carson is not credible; the point is that of the credible candidates, Rubio performs far better in this poll among these voters against Clinton than the others do. And note that the recent Quinnipiac poll also showed Rubio trailing Clinton by only seven points among young voters, a margin (if accurate) that is far too close for comfort and is far tighter than it is for Trump (who trails by 20 points among them) or Cruz (who trails by 18).
So take this as something to watch for: How Clinton will fare among young voters — and whether Rubio can substantially cut into the Dem advantage among them — are crucial unknowns. The Clinton campaign is already thinking about this: Amy Chozick of the New York Times reports that Clinton advisers have grown concerned that younger women are less excited by the historic promise of electing the first female president than Baby Boomer females are. The Clinton camp is moving to appeal to younger women with a focus on issues like equal pay, college affordability, and women’s health care. More broadly, it remains to be seen whether Clinton can motivate or culturally connect with young voters to the degree Obama did. Veteran Dem pollster Stan Greenberg recently sounded the alarm on this matter, too.
Why would Rubio do better (again, assuming the polling is on to something here) against Clinton among these voters than Cruz, who is the same age as the Florida Senator? Recall that the Rubio campaign is actively building its long term strategy around the belief that a GOP candidate must make inroads among Dem voter groups to win, while Cruz appears more wedded to the notion that running up huge turnout among evangelicals and other GOP base groups is the secret. Rubio is trying to strike hopeful, optimistic tones, and repeatedly says that a new generation of leaders is required, a point that Cruz appears far less interested in making. Rubio’s apparent performance edge over Trump and Cruz among young voters is another sign that nominating Trump or Cruz might be self-destructive demographic folly for the GOP.
To be sure, there are plenty of things that could prevent Rubio from seriously cutting into these voters, such as his conservative positions on abortion, women’s health, gay marriage, and climate change. But one of the big questions about 2016 remains remains whether Clinton can achieve Obama-level turnout among the voter groups that powered Obama’s two victories in national elections. And the prospect that the Democratic advantage among young voters is not a foregone conclusion is one Democrats should take seriously. This goes beyond just 2016, since young voters are crucial to the grand wager that Dems are placing on the idea that demographics — in the form of the Rising American Electorate of millennials, minorities, socially liberal college educated whites, and single women — will keep trending their way for the foreseeable future.
“That any Republican at this point can theoretically breach the Democratic demographic firewall is a reminder that the new coalition strategy was always more opportunity than destiny,” Dem strategist Simon Rosenberg, an early proponent of that demographic strategy, tells me. “It still needs to be earned by every Democratic candidate in every cycle. It’s clearly no longer a given.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...worried-about-marco-rubio-probably-heres-why/
That being said Rubio is currently doing better than Trump and Cruz against Hillary in general election polls. What's interesting is he's tied with her among millennials who the Democrats count on as part of their coalition. Again, these polls are fluid and all these numbers will change. But interesting point in time reference.
Should Hillary Clinton be worried about Marco Rubio? Probably. Here’s why.
As you faithful readers are well aware, at this early stage head-to-head general election polling is not at all predictive of campaign outcomes. So take what follows as merely an effort to plant a flag on something to keep an eye out for as the campaign progresses.
There is a striking finding in the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll: Marco Rubio is tied with Hillary Clinton among young voters. Given the importance of Barack Obama’s overwhelming margins among young voters to his two victories — and, more broadly, given that Democrats are betting the future of the party on their rising coalition of young voters and minorities — this is something Democrats should probably start paying attention to right now.
The NBC/WSJ poll’s toplines are that Rubio holds a 48-45 lead over Clinton among adults nationally, effectively a tie. By contrast, Clinton leads Donald Trump by 50-40, and she leads Ted Cruz by 48-45 (also effectively a tie). But note this data from the crosstabs, sent over by the good folks at NBC:
— Clinton and Rubio are tied among voters who are 18-34 years old, 45-45.
— Clinton leads Trump among these voters, 54-33.
— Clinton leads Cruz among these voters, 49-40.
This is only one poll; the sample sizes are not that large; and again, early polling is not predictive. Also, the poll shows Ben Carson also practically ties Clinton among these young voters. But Carson is not credible; the point is that of the credible candidates, Rubio performs far better in this poll among these voters against Clinton than the others do. And note that the recent Quinnipiac poll also showed Rubio trailing Clinton by only seven points among young voters, a margin (if accurate) that is far too close for comfort and is far tighter than it is for Trump (who trails by 20 points among them) or Cruz (who trails by 18).
So take this as something to watch for: How Clinton will fare among young voters — and whether Rubio can substantially cut into the Dem advantage among them — are crucial unknowns. The Clinton campaign is already thinking about this: Amy Chozick of the New York Times reports that Clinton advisers have grown concerned that younger women are less excited by the historic promise of electing the first female president than Baby Boomer females are. The Clinton camp is moving to appeal to younger women with a focus on issues like equal pay, college affordability, and women’s health care. More broadly, it remains to be seen whether Clinton can motivate or culturally connect with young voters to the degree Obama did. Veteran Dem pollster Stan Greenberg recently sounded the alarm on this matter, too.
Why would Rubio do better (again, assuming the polling is on to something here) against Clinton among these voters than Cruz, who is the same age as the Florida Senator? Recall that the Rubio campaign is actively building its long term strategy around the belief that a GOP candidate must make inroads among Dem voter groups to win, while Cruz appears more wedded to the notion that running up huge turnout among evangelicals and other GOP base groups is the secret. Rubio is trying to strike hopeful, optimistic tones, and repeatedly says that a new generation of leaders is required, a point that Cruz appears far less interested in making. Rubio’s apparent performance edge over Trump and Cruz among young voters is another sign that nominating Trump or Cruz might be self-destructive demographic folly for the GOP.
To be sure, there are plenty of things that could prevent Rubio from seriously cutting into these voters, such as his conservative positions on abortion, women’s health, gay marriage, and climate change. But one of the big questions about 2016 remains remains whether Clinton can achieve Obama-level turnout among the voter groups that powered Obama’s two victories in national elections. And the prospect that the Democratic advantage among young voters is not a foregone conclusion is one Democrats should take seriously. This goes beyond just 2016, since young voters are crucial to the grand wager that Dems are placing on the idea that demographics — in the form of the Rising American Electorate of millennials, minorities, socially liberal college educated whites, and single women — will keep trending their way for the foreseeable future.
“That any Republican at this point can theoretically breach the Democratic demographic firewall is a reminder that the new coalition strategy was always more opportunity than destiny,” Dem strategist Simon Rosenberg, an early proponent of that demographic strategy, tells me. “It still needs to be earned by every Democratic candidate in every cycle. It’s clearly no longer a given.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...worried-about-marco-rubio-probably-heres-why/
