Hey JAROD.... INTRADE UNDER 60% for Obama

I do take it seriously, I am very happy the president is above 50%.


I love how upset talking about intrade gets some of you.... Its fun to watch Mitt lose a debate and see the odds drop in real time.
 
Intrade isn't flawless. They had like 75% odds that SCOTUS would overturn the ACA and they were wrong. The problem with RCP on the other hand is it's just a simple average. It's not even weighted. Though because it is broken down by the States it does provide substantially more predicitive information than a simple national poll does. Still, it appears Romneys bump has been to little to late. Obama still carries a slight but significant advantage and, to borrow a poker phrase, he has more outs than Romney does. The statistical odds of Obama winning are still about 2:1 over Romney.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Intrade isn't flawless. They had like 75% odds that SCOTUS would overturn the ACA and they were wrong. The problem with RCP on the other hand is it's just a simple average. It's not even weighted. Though because it is broken down by the States it does provide substantially more predicitive information than a simple national poll does. Still, it appears Romneys bump has been to little to late. Obama still carries a slight but significant advantage and, to borrow a poker phrase, he has more outs than Romney does. The statistical odds of Obama winning are still about 2:1 over Romney.
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Um... wrong... Based on current numbers it comes down to Ohio, for both. Ohio is showing a tie to a slight lead for Obama, but about 5-6% still undecided. Undecideds tend to break for the challenger. Right now, Romney has the edge because of that. To say Romney's bump is too little to late is either extremely partisan or completely naive. The bump came at exactly the right time. The momentum is right ahead of the election where more and more people are deciding. We are but two weeks out... Given that it has carried Romney up to a tie, has improved his favorability and has locked down states like NC, MO and likely wins in VA, CO and FL... I would say Romney is at a minimum 50/50 right now.

Too many swing states within margin of error... but to proclaim Obama has more outs... nah... Ohio again is the key.
 
all intrade is composed of are idiots that don't know anything about politics betting on politics. Just because the line for the lakers is 3:1 doesn't mean that they are good odds.
 
Q _ Q said:
all intrade is composed of are idiots that don't know anything about politics betting on politics. Just because the line for the lakers is 3:1 doesn't mean that they are good odds.
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Shhhhh... don't go using logic to dispel Jarod's little fantasy.
 
Superfreak said:
Um... wrong... Based on current numbers it comes down to Ohio, for both. Ohio is showing a tie to a slight lead for Obama, but about 5-6% still undecided. Undecideds tend to break for the challenger. Right now, Romney has the edge because of that. To say Romney's bump is too little to late is either extremely partisan or completely naive. The bump came at exactly the right time. The momentum is right ahead of the election where more and more people are deciding. We are but two weeks out... Given that it has carried Romney up to a tie, has improved his favorability and has locked down states like NC, MO and likely wins in VA, CO and FL... I would say Romney is at a minimum 50/50 right now.

Too many swing states within margin of error... but to proclaim Obama has more outs... nah... Ohio again is the key.
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Not true. Obama can win with out Ohio, though it would be difficult the outs are there. They are not there for Romney. If Romney loses the Buckeye State he's toast.
 
Most people don't understand what they read when they see these stats. A 67% advantage for Obama means his odds of winning are 2:1. That means on average that under these same conditions Obama would win two out of three contests and Romney would win 1 out of 3 but there's only one contest and it may be that this is the one time Romney wins. These are good odds for Obama but I wouldn't put money on them unless the payout is at least 2:1 as well. At 1:1 payout the return isn't worth the risk.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Not true. Obama can win with out Ohio, though it would be difficult the outs are there. They are not there for Romney. If Romney loses the Buckeye State he's toast.
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Not true, he still has outs as well, though it would be difficult for him as well. Romney could take NH and WI instead of Ohio and win. Not as easy, but both are well within the margin of error for him to do so. He could also take NV and WI, though NV is looking increasingly unlikely.

The point is that you are wrong. As usual.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Most people don't understand what they read when they see these stats. A 67% advantage for Obama means his odds of winning are 2:1. That means on average that under these same conditions Obama would two out of three contests and Romney would win 1 out of 3 but there's only one contest and it may be that one that this is the one time Romney wins. These are good odds for Obama but I wouldn't put money on them unless the payout is at least 2:1 as well. At 1:1 payout the return isn't worth the risk.
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I understand statistics. The point is that he is no where near that high of a probability given the current situation. With Ohio a 50/50 proposition, if Obama loses that, he is done.
 
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