For a year now, the right wing promised us herd immunity was around the corner. It was a lazy reaction to the pandemic. We would not have to do anything, and the pandemic would just stop.
Lets look at a place that is far ahead of us on the path towards herd immunity. Brazil's President says Covid-19 is a hoax. They have made far less of an attempt to stop it than the USA. The biggest city in the Amazon, Manaus, was hardest hit. In April, the city of 2 million was filling mass graves as quickly as they could dig them, but by June, deaths had gone back to pre-pandemic levels. Locals started talking about herd immunity being achieved.
A peer reviewed study entitled "Covid-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon" said that 76% of the people had immunity, based on tests for antibodies among blood donors. Throughout Brazil there was rejoicing, and even further ignoring of preventative measures. If everyone is immune, why bother with masks?
And now the second wave is hitting. Manaus' hospitals filled up in January. Deaths are almost as high as they were at the highest point, and are continuing to rise. They are digging mass graves as quickly as they can... AGAIN.
What went wrong? Nobody really knows why we cannot seem to get herd immunity with Covid-19, but it is clear that herd immunity is not close. Some theories are:
https://www.economist.com/the-ameri...ity-thought-it-had-herd-immunity-it-was-wrong
Lets look at a place that is far ahead of us on the path towards herd immunity. Brazil's President says Covid-19 is a hoax. They have made far less of an attempt to stop it than the USA. The biggest city in the Amazon, Manaus, was hardest hit. In April, the city of 2 million was filling mass graves as quickly as they could dig them, but by June, deaths had gone back to pre-pandemic levels. Locals started talking about herd immunity being achieved.
A peer reviewed study entitled "Covid-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon" said that 76% of the people had immunity, based on tests for antibodies among blood donors. Throughout Brazil there was rejoicing, and even further ignoring of preventative measures. If everyone is immune, why bother with masks?
And now the second wave is hitting. Manaus' hospitals filled up in January. Deaths are almost as high as they were at the highest point, and are continuing to rise. They are digging mass graves as quickly as they can... AGAIN.
What went wrong? Nobody really knows why we cannot seem to get herd immunity with Covid-19, but it is clear that herd immunity is not close. Some theories are:
The reasons for the spike in Manaus are unclear. Perhaps a new variant—identified in 42% of samples collected in December—is more contagious. It could be that existing antibodies offer less protection against the variant, and that some cases are reinfections.
It could be that the study’s methodology is flawed and that 76% was an overestimate. Blood donors are more likely to leave the house, and therefore to get infected, than most people, says Pedro Hallal, an epidemiologist at the Federal University of Pelotas. A nationwide study he co-ordinated, with population samples picked at random, found that just 15% of Manaus residents had antibodies in June. He thinks the preprint’s authors were “not cautious enough” in interpreting their findings.
https://www.economist.com/the-ameri...ity-thought-it-had-herd-immunity-it-was-wrong