Gold explained

[Walt]

So for a while there, alt right posters were claiming that gold was going up, when it was actually going slightly down. It has since started going up, and I have more than tripled my money, but why were they so wrong before?

There was all the hallmarks of gold going up. Inflation was being threatened, stocks were crashing, trade was going to hell, prospects of recession were all but certain. etc. Gold should have been going up.

But bonds were crashing too... Especially Treasury Bonds. Treasurys usually seen as a safe haven, are not being seen as a safe haven with trump in office. Besides Treasurys are used in escrow accounts for trade, which is going to be less needed in the future.

Anyway, as bonds and stocks crashed, people began getting margin calls. They had borrowed to invest, and now the security had dropped below an acceptable level. They were forced to sell what they could to stave off collapse, which included gold. It is never good to sell at a loss, but if you have to you have to.

What confuses me is that alt right posters still believed gold was going up, even when it was going down. They must not keep up with even the most basic market news.

Anyway, gold went up 12.3%, and GLD $300 calls have gone from $6.41 to $21.675. And the ones I have do not expire until Sept 30th.

 

[Bai Lan]

So for a while there, alt right posters were claiming that gold was going up, when it was actually going slightly down. It has since started going up, and I have more than tripled my money, but why were they so wrong before?

There was all the hallmarks of gold going up. Inflation was being threatened, stocks were crashing, trade was going to hell, prospects of recession were all but certain. etc. Gold should have been going up.

But bonds were crashing too... Especially Treasury Bonds. Treasurys usually seen as a safe haven, are not being seen as a safe haven with trump in office. Besides Treasurys are used in escrow accounts for trade, which is going to be less needed in the future.

Anyway, as bonds and stocks crashed, people began getting margin calls. They had borrowed to invest, and now the security had dropped below an acceptable level. They were forced to sell what they could to stave off collapse, which included gold. It is never good to sell at a loss, but if you have to you have to.

What confuses me is that alt right posters still believed gold was going up, even when it was going down. They must not keep up with even the most basic market news.

Anyway, gold went up 12.3%, and GLD $300 calls have gone from $6.41 to $21.675. And the ones I have do not expire until Sept 30th.

the price of gold is manipulated, to hide the true horror of the economy.

numbers on a screen.

 

[Walt]

Oh and the $6.41 was when I moved to Sept 30th expiration dates. I bought the original June 30th expiration dates between $1.70 and $2.41, so that is a 900% rise, or 10 times rise. I really should have put more money into it.

 

[Walt]

the price of gold is manipulated, to hide the true horror of the economy.

The true horror of the economy manipulates gold prices.

numbers on a screen.

Numbers on a screen, that I can use to buy goods and services.

 

[Earl]

Well, Walter, we know that you have a “whole lot of money.”

You have told us over and over and over.

Are you still reporting to your Uber Eat’s job on Sunday afternoon…at 5PM?

 

[Bai Lan]

The true horror of the economy manipulates gold prices.


Numbers on a screen, that I can use to buy goods and services.

and the ptb will not let it rise to reflect the true worthlessness of the money.

 

[Walt]

and the ptb will not let it rise to reflect the true worthlessness of the money.

I know I am making a lot of money off the rise of gold, but I question the worth of gold. Money can be used to pay taxes, and to buy goods and services from other people who might want to pay taxes. Money is infinitely fungible. Gold is non-corrosive, conductive, shiny, and kind of pretty; these are hardly things of amazing worth in the modern world.

And gold is so heavy and difficult to exchange. It is difficult to use in commerce.

 

[Walt]

Well, Walter, we know that you have a “whole lot of money.”

Actually, you are using that out of context. I did not actually say I have a whole lot of money. I said I had a whole lot of money in a Roth IRA. If you have a $1,000 in your wallet, you have a whole lot of money in your wallet, but you do not have a whole lot of money.

There are over 3,000 billionaires in the world, but only one known Roth billionaire. Getting money in a Roth is very difficult, so somewhat unusual.

While in normal times, this would be great for me, these days it is a little worrisome. A Roth is very tied to the USA, and trump is doing a lot of destruction to the USA.

Are you still reporting to your Uber Eat’s job on Sunday afternoon…at 5PM?

I do not work for Uber Eats, and do not start work at 5:00PM. Again, knowing the truth, I know when you are lying about what I said. The computer systems are crunching risks until 6:30, so I do not start work until 6:30... When I do have to go to work which is getting rarer these days. I am working more on other projects from home.

 

[goat]

I know I am making a lot of money off the rise of gold, but I question the worth of gold. Money can be used to pay taxes, and to buy goods and services from other people who might want to pay taxes. Money is infinitely fungible. Gold is non-corrosive, conductive, shiny, and kind of pretty; these are hardly things of amazing worth in the modern world.

And gold is so heavy and difficult to exchange. It is difficult to use in commerce.

A year or 2 ago I told you war would cause oil to go up to $130 a barrel, so if you think the US will bomb Iran, now is a good time to buy oil.

 

[Walt]

A year or 2 ago I told you war would cause oil to go up to $130 a barrel,

Oil is at $64 to $65 a barrel now, so we have a long way to go. Bush, and Bush's wars did take it up to $147.27. That was in a time when the huge oil companies could push up the price more. There are a lot of smaller producers now.

so if you think the US will bomb Iran, now is a good time to buy oil.

trump allowed oil to go negative. I got a bunch of panicked messages from a few friends saying oil was below $10, and I should buy. I slept through them, because I was tired. When I woke up and heard the messages, I rushed to my computer, only to see oil had gone negative. I did not even know that was possible.

It wiped out a lot of people. This might be a good time to buy oil futures, but I have seen that trump will allow the markets to collapse, and even go negative. That is making me worried to invest in oil futures.

 

[goat]

Oil is at $64 to $65 a barrel now, so we have a long way to go. Bush, and Bush's wars did take it up to $147.27. That was in a time when the huge oil companies could push up the price more. There are a lot of smaller producers now.


trump allowed oil to go negative. I got a bunch of panicked messages from a few friends saying oil was below $10, and I should buy. I slept through them, because I was tired. When I woke up and heard the messages, I rushed to my computer, only to see oil had gone negative. I did not even know that was possible.

It wiped out a lot of people. This might be a good time to buy oil futures, but I have seen that trump will allow the markets to collapse, and even go negative. That is making me worried to invest in oil futures.

OPEC is putting the hurt on US oil and gas companies. How much does the price of oil have to be for the Permian Basin oilfields to break even? Minus their subsidies.

 

[Walt]

OPEC is putting the hurt on US oil and gas companies. How much does the price of oil have to be for the Permian Basin oilfields to break even? Minus their subsidies.

I do not keep completely up on the oil market, but from my understanding:
The cost of the last barrel of oil in the USA is usually given as in the low 50's. I think that has changed, and the cost of investment has gone up severely. I believe the cost of the last barrel of oil is really in the low 60's. A lot of our oil production has been cheaper due to the low cost of financing investment in the USA. That former low cost is rising.

OPEC has in the past hurt small oil companies, but companies like ExxonMobile are insulated. If oil prices go up, they have huge investments in oil production, and do well. If oil prices go down, they have huge investments in gasoline production, and do well.

There is only one person who has ever really hurt ExxonMobile, and that is trump. trump devastated the American oil industry with his oil price shock.

 

[goat]

I do not keep completely up on the oil market, but from my understanding:
The cost of the last barrel of oil in the USA is usually given as in the low 50's. I think that has changed, and the cost of investment has gone up severely. I believe the cost of the last barrel of oil is really in the low 60's. A lot of our oil production has been cheaper due to the low cost of financing investment in the USA. That former low cost is rising.

OPEC has in the past hurt small oil companies, but companies like ExxonMobile are insulated. If oil prices go up, they have huge investments in oil production, and do well. If oil prices go down, they have huge investments in gasoline production, and do well.

There is only one person who has ever really hurt ExxonMobile, and that is trump. trump devastated the American oil industry with his oil price shock.

The Permian Basin needs oil to be at $72 a barrel to break even including their subsidies. But that price excludes the cost of the US navy escorts to protect the shipping lanes. Ironically, the US military has the biggest carbon footprint on the globe.

MBS made a deal with Putin to keep the price of oil down and force US companies to leave our oil in the ground. Keep in mind that North America drills sideways at a much higher cost.

Economists are predicting that once the US expands on the wars we instigated that oil will jump to $130 a barrel and gold will drop like a rock.

 

[Walt]

gold will drop like a rock.

This interests me. What do you think the mechanism for gold dropping will be?

The Permian Basin needs oil to be at $72 a barrel to break even including their subsidies.

Wouldn't you expect the smaller oil companies to be in trouble with oil $10 below that?

But that price excludes the cost of the US navy escorts to protect the shipping lanes.

The oil companies do not have to pay that, so it would not be included in the cost. Besides, most of the oil stays in America(so might be shipped up the East Coast, without much protection), and the rest mostly goes to well protected shipping lanes.

Oddly enough, the main shipping lane having trouble is the shipping lane used by China to connect to Europe, Middle East oil producers to connect to Europe, Russia to connect to China, etc... Everyone but us. I almost think we should just forget about it, and leave it to the rest of the world to handle.

 

[T. A. Gardner]

I know I am making a lot of money off the rise of gold, but I question the worth of gold. Money can be used to pay taxes, and to buy goods and services from other people who might want to pay taxes. Money is infinitely fungible. Gold is non-corrosive, conductive, shiny, and kind of pretty; these are hardly things of amazing worth in the modern world.

And gold is so heavy and difficult to exchange. It is difficult to use in commerce.

Gold is a commodity. It's no different than steel (iron), silver, copper, tomatoes, or lumber for that matter. The price is set by two things:

Demand for use in end products
Speculation on trading markets.

Gold is widely used in industrial practices usually as a plating. Gold in its pure form is very malleable and not nearly as useful as it is when alloyed.

 

[goat]

This interests me. What do you think the mechanism for gold dropping will be?


Wouldn't you expect the smaller oil companies to be in trouble with oil $10 below that?


The oil companies do not have to pay that, so it would not be included in the cost. Besides, most of the oil stays in America(so might be shipped up the East Coast, without much protection), and the rest mostly goes to well protected shipping lanes.

Oddly enough, the main shipping lane having trouble is the shipping lane used by China to connect to Europe, Middle East oil producers to connect to Europe, Russia to connect to China, etc... Everyone but us. I almost think we should just forget about it, and leave it to the rest of the world to handle.

TA answered your question on gold. I will add that banksters are touting crypto and CBDC as the new gold. The US will eventually ditch the dollar and default on our debt. We've been talking about this for years.

Someone has to pay the US navy to protect oil tankers. Trump gave the pentagon a $1 trillion budget on the books. That doesn't include the other $1 trillion of taxpayer money that goes to USAID and NGOs run by the CIA.

The global economy is in big trouble so expect the US to make use of this crisis by expanding on the wars we instigated. Not many here seem to care about all the international laws the US ignores.

 

[Walt]

Gold is a commodity. It's no different than steel (iron), silver, copper, tomatoes, or lumber for that matter. The price is set by two things:

Demand for use in end products
Speculation on trading markets.

Gold is widely used in industrial practices usually as a plating. Gold in its pure form is very malleable and not nearly as useful as it is when alloyed.

Almost no gold is consumed. It is mostly just stored in one form or another. Lumber is mostly consumed.

 

[Walt]

Someone has to pay the US navy to protect oil tankers.

That is the taxpayers, not the oil companies in particular. The huge trump deficit is not weighing on oil prices.

 

[Into the Night]

So for a while there, alt right posters were claiming that gold was going up, when it was actually going slightly down. It has since started going up, and I have more than tripled my money, but why were they so wrong before?

There was all the hallmarks of gold going up. Inflation was being threatened, stocks were crashing, trade was going to hell, prospects of recession were all but certain. etc. Gold should have been going up.

But bonds were crashing too... Especially Treasury Bonds. Treasurys usually seen as a safe haven, are not being seen as a safe haven with trump in office. Besides Treasurys are used in escrow accounts for trade, which is going to be less needed in the future.

Anyway, as bonds and stocks crashed, people began getting margin calls. They had borrowed to invest, and now the security had dropped below an acceptable level. They were forced to sell what they could to stave off collapse, which included gold. It is never good to sell at a loss, but if you have to you have to.

What confuses me is that alt right posters still believed gold was going up, even when it was going down. They must not keep up with even the most basic market news.

Anyway, gold went up 12.3%, and GLD $300 calls have gone from $6.41 to $21.675. And the ones I have do not expire until Sept 30th.

Gold's current price is $3342/oz (source: Kitco, reporting London Spot Price).

 

[Into the Night]

the price of gold is manipulated, to hide the true horror of the economy.

numbers on a screen.

While the price of gold is certainly manipulated by the US government, they are losing control of that manipulation. They can only do so through 'paper' gold, and people want the actual gold, not a paper promise, particularly one from a government using fiat currency.

The price of gold has nothing to do with the economy.