We knew that trump's biggest ever release of strategic oil reserves was going to run out sooner or later. It has not yet, but it is headed in that direction. As of April 30th, the average gasoline price is $4.392, and the average diesel price is $5.572. It is going up quickly. There are only 14 states that are below $4, and soon there will be none.
The trump's attack on Iran started February 28th, 2026. Putin's attack on Ukraine started February 24th, 2022, or at almost exactly the same point in the presidency. Biden's peak was June. trump has delayed the peak by a little, and this is a much worse oil crisis, so the peak will be later still. Clearly the peak is going to be higher, and the high gasoline prices will be longer this time around.
With some markets, animal spirits can keep the market up or down. Oil is just plain needed, and if there is not enough, demand has to be destroyed. There are two ways to destroy demand, higher prices or rationing.
The trump's attack on Iran started February 28th, 2026. Putin's attack on Ukraine started February 24th, 2022, or at almost exactly the same point in the presidency. Biden's peak was June. trump has delayed the peak by a little, and this is a much worse oil crisis, so the peak will be later still. Clearly the peak is going to be higher, and the high gasoline prices will be longer this time around.
With some markets, animal spirits can keep the market up or down. Oil is just plain needed, and if there is not enough, demand has to be destroyed. There are two ways to destroy demand, higher prices or rationing.