I wouldn't say it's a shoe-in for the Democrats, but this will be another referendum on Donald Trump election, so I believe the chance of a TRUMPTARD or Freedom Caucus Republican replacing Santos is highly unlikely!
I look for a very challenging fair fight though, with a lot of voters showing up, in this more-than Conservative but NEVER-TRUMPER district!
And regardless to who wins, they will have to battle it all out again next fall anyway!