Democrats Senate Odds Getting Better and Better - New High Today

M

martin

Well-known member
The odds of Democrats keeping control of the Senate are beginning to near the strong odds the GOP has of taking the House. The odds in both have been moving against the GOP for weeks. Today, for the Senate, Democrats are 70 per cent favorites. In July it was a dead even race. Republicans were overwhelming favorites to win the House in July with odds in excess of 80 per cent. The odds today are 74 percent after dropping about a point a week from their high.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Democrats strong showing in the recent primaries and special elections initially surprised observers. Looking into it, the answer turned out to be an unexpected surge in female registrations following the SC's abortion ruling. This would seem to be the major factor as well in the current polling.
 
Last edited:
martin said:
The odds of Democrats keeping control of the Senate is beginning to near the strong odds the GOP has of taking the House. The odds in both have been moving against the GOP for weeks. Today, for the Senate, Democrats are 70 per cent favorites. In July it was a dead even race. Republicans were overwhelming favorites to win the House in July with odds in excess of 80 per cent. The odds today are 74 percent after dropping about a point a week from their high.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Democrats strong showing in the recent primaries and special elections initially surprised observers. Looking into it, the answer turned out to be an unexpected surge in female registrations following the SC's abortion ruling. This would seem to be the major factor as well in the current polling.
Click to expand...

The BLUE Tsunami right?

tenor.gif
 
martin said:
The odds of Democrats keeping control of the Senate is beginning to near the strong odds the GOP has of taking the House. The odds in both have been moving against the GOP for weeks. Today, for the Senate, Democrats are 70 per cent favorites. In July it was a dead even race. Republicans were overwhelming favorites to win the House in July with odds in excess of 80 per cent. The odds today are 74 percent after dropping about a point a week from their high.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Democrats strong showing in the recent primaries and special elections initially surprised observers. Looking into it, the answer turned out to be an unexpected surge in female registrations following the SC's abortion ruling. This would seem to be the major factor as well in the current polling.
Click to expand...

Another thread to save for later. :laugh:
 
martin said:
The odds of Democrats keeping control of the Senate is beginning to near the strong odds the GOP has of taking the House. The odds in both have been moving against the GOP for weeks. Today, for the Senate, Democrats are 70 per cent favorites. In July it was a dead even race. Republicans were overwhelming favorites to win the House in July with odds in excess of 80 per cent. The odds today are 74 percent after dropping about a point a week from their high.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Democrats strong showing in the recent primaries and special elections initially surprised observers. Looking into it, the answer turned out to be an unexpected surge in female registrations following the SC's abortion ruling. This would seem to be the major factor as well in the current polling.
Click to expand...

I'm banking on the house, for the Dems as well. Look at how the predictions were wrong on twump prior to 2020!

https://fortune.com/2020/11/02/who-...a-arizona-pennsylvania-must-win-swing-states/

Here's a 11/2/2020 article that claims trump was "surging" back then :)
 
martin said:
The odds of Democrats keeping control of the Senate is beginning to near the strong odds the GOP has of taking the House. The odds in both have been moving against the GOP for weeks. Today, for the Senate, Democrats are 70 per cent favorites. In July it was a dead even race. Republicans were overwhelming favorites to win the House in July with odds in excess of 80 per cent. The odds today are 74 percent after dropping about a point a week from their high.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Democrats strong showing in the recent primaries and special elections initially surprised observers. Looking into it, the answer turned out to be an unexpected surge in female registrations following the SC's abortion ruling. This would seem to be the major factor as well in the current polling.
Click to expand...

How many points was Hilary supposed to win by?
 
Biden's popularity has been rising at the same time, as might be expected. He still polls under 50 percent but is well into the 40's after months in the 30's. You can see the numbers in the same link as in the opening post.
 
martin said:
The odds of Democrats keeping control of the Senate are beginning to near the strong odds the GOP has of taking the House. The odds in both have been moving against the GOP for weeks. Today, for the Senate, Democrats are 70 per cent favorites. In July it was a dead even race. Republicans were overwhelming favorites to win the House in July with odds in excess of 80 per cent. The odds today are 74 percent after dropping about a point a week from their high.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Democrats strong showing in the recent primaries and special elections initially surprised observers. Looking into it, the answer turned out to be an unexpected surge in female registrations following the SC's abortion ruling. This would seem to be the major factor as well in the current polling.
Click to expand...

The female under-35 registrations have been breaking records.
 
LurchAddams said:
I'm banking on the house, for the Dems as well. Look at how the predictions were wrong on twump prior to 2020!

https://fortune.com/2020/11/02/who-...a-arizona-pennsylvania-must-win-swing-states/

Here's a 11/2/2020 article that claims trump was "surging" back then :)
Click to expand...

One disadvantage for the GOP to retain control of the House is to retain control of all those narrow Orange County and San Diego CA House seats that Republicans narrowly won in 2020 with Trump on the ballot.

They lost all those same seats in 2018 when Trump wasn't on the ballot.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
I wonder if he realizes we only need to pick up one seat in the senate to take control.....
Click to expand...

Where is the GOP going to do that?

Because they're gonna lose the PA and OH races, so they'll need to flip 3 seats to win control, not 1.

And Warnock isn't gonna lose either.
 
archives said:
Unfortunately, the House is going red, too many variables working against the Democrats; history, statistics, gerrymandering, and GOP electoral
shenanigans
Click to expand...

Maybe. I wouldn't count out the female vote like everyone did in 2018.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
I wonder if he realizes we only need to pick up one seat in the senate to take control.....
Click to expand...

Appears “pp” doesn’t know the GOP is defending 21 seats as opposed to the Democrats 14, “we” need to pick up one plus win all the others, given the GOP is plagued by the likes of Ron Johnson I don’t think Mitch has your confidence
 
LV426 said:
One disadvantage for the GOP to retain control of the House is to retain control of all those narrow Orange County and San Diego CA House seats that Republicans narrowly won in 2020 with Trump on the ballot.

They lost all those same seats in 2018 when Trump wasn't on the ballot.
Click to expand...

I think even suburban GOP women don't like being told what they can't do. The women always save the Democrats.
 
archives said:
Unfortunately, the House is going red, too many variables working against the Democrats; history, statistics, gerrymandering, and GOP electoral
shenanigans
Click to expand...

I'm keeping hope alive. I'm praying to the Pelosi shrine behind the false wall of my closet each night!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top