Your analogy is spot on; but the ONLY ones who can call for war are the Ukranians themselves. And then it would be a bloodbath which would turn Russian public opinion against Comrade Putin. Perhaps that would force Russians to withdraw.
So the question for Ukranians is this; is liberty worth a bloodbath? The question for the West; would we then have the spine to defend liberty?
I think the answer to these questions are painfully obvious to anyone with more than two brain cells.
I would not doubt it if a majority of Crimeans favored union with Russia. Pre-crisis polls indicated a bare majority in favor, and the deposing of a government friendly towards Russian speaking Ukrainians and ethnic Russians in favor of a Ukrainian nationalist (which includes some practically neo-fascist elements) one obviously would have inflamed things significantly. But 96% for in among those who voted, and a full 80% among all registered voters? Come on, they're spitting in our face.
Normally, I would be in favor of the right to self-determination. However, I think they are moving too fast, they should wait a few years and try to negotiate with the legitimate government in Ukraine over the issue first, perhaps let tensions cool somewhat, before going down the path of a unilateral DoI. Any referendum, unilateral or with the approval of the Ukrainian government, should be declared at least a few months (preferably more than a year) in advance to give time for discussion, should not have armed men at present at the polling station, and should be observed by international authorities for fairness. And they should not rely on a strong third party country to bully Ukraine in the process.
Any result like the current one, that claims that 80% of people in the area voted for accession to Russia should just be rejected out of hand. Again, even if 100% of ethnic Russians voted for accession to Russia (which shouldn't be the case, there are many ethnic Russians happy to be part of Ukraine), that would only be 58%. I suppose it's not entirely unthinkable that some sizable minority of ethnic Ukrainians (24% of the population), especially the Russian speaking portion, would vote for it as well. But even if half voted wanted it (and I seriously doubt that would be the case, certainly no more), that would only get you 58% + 12% = 70% of all Crimeans. The only other signifigant minority, the Crimean Tartars, hate Russia, and almost all of their 12% of the population can be expected to abstain or vote against. A result like 80% would require that a full 100% of both ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians support joining Russia, or some ridiculous supermajority of Ukrainians in combination with a large minority of Crimean Tartars (even if a bare majority, 51% majority of Crimean tartars supported the referendum, which is even more implausible than 51% of Ukrainians joining in, it would require an absurdly implausible 75% of ethnic Ukrainians as well to join in as well to reach 80% total).
