Could one million monkeys type out Hamlet?
- Thread starter Cypress
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Which doesn't invalidate the theorem, does it? Actually supports it. Assume there is no end of time and you've got it.
It's interesting to put it on a cosmic timeline.
Google AI claims that star formation will end at 10^14 years, protons and therefore all atomic matter will decay away in 10^14 years, and the heat death of the universe will be in 10^76 years.
If the monkeys only managed to type two sentences in 10^60 years, long after all atomic matter has dissipated, if doesn't look like they would come up with more than a few sentences of Hamlet before all motion and momentum essentially froze. The monkeys themselves are made of protons, so they wouldn't even make it to 10^60 years.
T. A. Gardner
Serial Thread Killer
Already been done...
I think the theorem implies a cosmic timeline. As you indicate, practical realities stop it cold.
The probability of a monkey typing that phrase is
P = (1/27)^18
That means that a single monkey has a probability of typing of 1.72X10^-26
If we want to raise the odds of a monkey typing "To be or not to be" to something like 50% we could do it:
We want 1-(1-P)^n > 0.5 | n = number of monkeys it will require a logarithmic estimation
(1-P)^n ~ e^-np
It works out to about 4.X10^25 monkeys should at least get you to 50% probability
I could do it in an hour with enough monkeys.
P = (1/27)^18
That means that a single monkey has a probability of typing of 1.72X10^-26
If we want to raise the odds of a monkey typing "To be or not to be" to something like 50% we could do it:
We want 1-(1-P)^n > 0.5 | n = number of monkeys it will require a logarithmic estimation
(1-P)^n ~ e^-np
It works out to about 4.X10^25 monkeys should at least get you to 50% probability
I could do it in an hour with enough monkeys.
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
Agreed. It would take a very long time.
Infinite monkey theorem explained
What is the Infinite monkey theorem? The infinite monkey theorem is infinite in size.
everything.explained.today
T. A. Gardner
Serial Thread Killer
Well, it's less than a Google... That's good.
T. A. Gardner
Serial Thread Killer
Well, it might prove Einstein's fifth theory. You know, the one that involves lots of drinking and saying "Hold my beer 'n watch this shit!"
I don't like the premise of the infinite monkey theorem.
It's asking a question about what is possible, but then it uses outlandish and impossible assumptions to answer the question about what is possible.
Infinity monkeys is impossible.
A million monkeys is not outlandish, because it comports reasonably, give or take, with a monkey population we see on Earth, and in theory that population could be maintained over time by reproduction.
An infinite timeline is outlandish because protons in theory are unstable, and all protons in the universe will decay away after 10^40 years. Since monkeys are made of protons, there won't be any more monkeys in 10^40 years.
As Martin suggests, if the question is asked without using outlandish assumptions to answer it, the practical answer is that a population of a million monkeys will never type Hamlet for as long as atomic matter exists.
I thought "entropy favors life" so given a universe of the size of ours why are aren't there enough monkeys? Does Dr. Carroll calculate how many monkeys can be spawned by an increase in a couple J/K?
ftfyI'm going to do my best to derail this thread!
What they found when they did the experiment with real monkeys is that the monkeys would get fixated on typing one key over and over (500 T's in a row), or they would break the keyboard.
So monkeys aren't even a good proxy for random probability, which is supposed to be at the heart of the theorem.
I'm the only one who actually brought some MATH to the thread. LOL.
Outclassed you again.
LOLOLOLOLOL
ftfy. You based the probability on 27 keysI'm the only one who actually brought some MATH to the thread. LOL!
Outclassed you again!
LOLOLOLOLOL.
That's bad reasoning and faulty probability. A computer keyboard has over 100 keys. Even an old fashioned typewriter has around 50 keys.
Your probability is faulty, your reasoning is subpar, and therefore any math you posted is wrong.
You didn't even think about the keys for punctuation, capitalization, numeric symbols.
You created a keyboard that doesn't exist. Computer keyboards have over 100 keys a monkey would have access to.
LOL. Funny but you didn't run any numbers, you didn't do any math. As per usual all you do is quote other people and hope it makes you look smart.
I find it hilarious that you are such a faker.
(Also this is:
1. A bit of levity, you are such a fucking drudge
2. A simplified system (ie I didn't look at dvorak keyboards or Logitech 5M44 keyboards or whatever. A simplified system leverages 26 letters and a space since that's all the characters there are in the system. )
Phyllis Diller
Was it me?
ftfy, Thanks for the tacit admission that you didn't even think about punctuation, capitalization, numbers, and that makes your probability faulty and your math completely incorrect.I find it hilarious that you are such a faker!