Big split between RCP and 538....

[PostmodernProphet]

Five weeks out from the election we see a big divide between the predictions of 538 and Real Clear Politics.....

on the seven key senate districts.....

RCP predicts.....giving the Republicans a 2 seat lead....

Pennsylvania Fetterman +3.7 Biden +6.6 Casey +16.0 Clinton +8.6 GOP 5.9 Oz +2.2 GOP Hold
Georgia Warnock +3.8 Biden +0.3 - Trump +5.0 No Difference Warnock +3.8 Dem Hold
Arizona Kelly +4.1 Biden +3.4 Sinema +3.4 Trump +1.0 GOP 2.2 Kelly +1.9 GOP Pick Up
Nevada Laxalt +2.1 Biden +5.3 Rosen +1.2 Clinton +1.3 Dem 0.8 Laxalt +1.3 GOP Pick Up
New Hampshire Hassan +5.3 Biden +9.0 - Clinton +6.0 GOP 3.8 Hassan +1.5 Dem Hold
North Carolina Budd +1.5 Biden +1.2 - Clinton +2.6 GOP 4.4 Budd +5.9 GOP Hold
Florida Rubio +4.7 Biden +3.3 Nelson +2.4 Clinton +2.4 GOP 4.3 Rubio +9.0 GOP Hold
Wisconsin Johnson +2.7 Biden +6.0 Baldwin +11.0 Clinton +6.8 GOP 4.3 Johnson +7.0 GOP Hold
Ohio Vance +1.2 Biden +1.2 Brown +15.3 Clinton +2.4 GOP 9.6 Vance +10.8 GOP Hold

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html

538 predicts....giving the Demmycrats a 51-49 lead....

AZ goes blue (odds 81-19) Dem Hold
NV still toss up (odds 50-50) Dem Hold
NH goes blue (odds 84-16) Dem Hold
GA goes blue (odds 58-42) Dem Hold
PA goes blue (odds 71-29) Dem Pickup
OH goes red (odds 30-70) GOP Hold
WI goes red (odds 33-67) GOP Hold

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/


NOTE both RCP and 538 predict the Reublicans will take the House

 

[PostmodernProphet]

RCP gives Nevada to Republicans. 538 calls it a 50-50 shot....

however, according to RCP Cortes-Masto has only ever one poll........that doesn't look good for the blues.....