Arming Rebels? That Could Never Backfire, Right?

[Bonestorm]

I hope that the don't arm the rebels crowd wins the debate, though if history is any guide, they won't. What the hell are they thinking? This is one of th main reasons that I opposed military intervention at the outset.

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is engaged in a fierce debate over whether to supply weapons to the rebels in Libya, senior officials said on Tuesday, with some fearful that providing arms would deepen American involvement in a civil war and that some fighters may have links to Al Qaeda.

The debate has drawn in the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon, these officials said, and has prompted an urgent call for intelligence about a ragtag band of rebels who are waging a town-by-town battle against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, from a base in eastern Libya long suspected of supplying terrorist recruits.

“Al Qaeda in that part of the country is obviously an issue,” a senior official said.

On a day when Libyan forces counterattacked, fears about the rebels surfaced publicly on Capitol Hill on Tuesday when the military commander of NATO, Adm. James G. Stavridis, told a Senate hearing that there were “flickers” in intelligence reports about the presence of Qaeda and Hezbollah members among the anti-Qaddafi forces. No full picture of the opposition has emerged, Admiral Stavridis said. While eastern Libya was the center of Islamist protests in the late 1990s, it is unclear how many groups retain ties to Al Qaeda.

The French government, which has led the international charge against Colonel Qaddafi, has placed mounting pressure on the United States to provide greater assistance to the rebels. The question of how best to support the opposition dominated an international conference about Libya on Tuesday in London.

While Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the administration had not yet decided whether to actually transfer arms, she reiterated that the United States had a right to do so, despite an arms embargo on Libya, because of the United Nations Security Council’s broad resolution authorizing military action to protect civilians.

In a reflection of the seriousness of the administration’s debate, Mr. Obama said Tuesday that he was keeping his options open on arming the rebels. “I’m not ruling it out, but I’m also not ruling it in,” Mr. Obama told NBC News. “We’re still making an assessment partly about what Qaddafi’s forces are going to be doing. Keep in mind, we’ve been at this now for nine days.”

But some administration officials argue that supplying arms would further entangle the United States in a drawn-out civil war because the rebels would need to be trained to use any weapons, even relatively simple rifles and shoulder-fired anti-armor weapons. This could mean sending trainers. One official said the United States might simply let others supply the weapons.

The question of whether to arm the rebels underscores the difficult choices the United States faces as it tries to move from being the leader of the military operation to a member of a NATO-led coalition, with no clear political endgame. It also carries echoes of previous American efforts to arm rebels, in Angola, Nicaragua, Afghanistan and elsewhere, many of which backfired. The United States has a deep, often unsuccessful, history of arming insurgencies.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/world/africa/30diplo.html?_r=1

 

[Cancel 2018. 3]

iirc correctly, some liberals on this board (onceler comes to mind) said that the claim AQ might be among the rebels has been debunked....

are you saying there is a real possibility that AQ is among the rebels....is it also possible they are backing them....

 

[Onceler]

iirc correctly, some liberals on this board (onceler comes to mind) said that the claim AQ might be among the rebels has been debunked....

are you saying there is a real possibility that AQ is among the rebels....is it also possible they are backing them....

I do?

 

[Bonestorm]

iirc correctly, some liberals on this board (onceler comes to mind) said that the claim AQ might be among the rebels has been debunked....

are you saying there is a real possibility that AQ is among the rebels....is it also possible they are backing them....

I don't know who the rebels are and I don't particularly care. To me, it doesn't really matter who they are and what their allegiances are. Those allegiances are transitory at best. Our track record of arming friendly opposition forces that years later end up being not so friendly isn't very good.

Moreover, what happens if (when?) Qaddafi is ousted? The thought of competing rebel factions using US supplied arms to fight one another for control of Libya and the inevitable civilian casualties attendant thereto is pretty horrifying.

 

[Cancel 2018. 3]

I don't know who the rebels are and I don't particularly care. To me, it doesn't really matter who they are and what their allegiances are. Those allegiances are transitory at best. Our track record of arming friendly opposition forces that years later end up being not so friendly isn't very good.

Moreover, what happens if (when?) Qaddafi is ousted? The thought of competing rebel factions using US supplied arms to fight one another for control of Libya and the inevitable civilian casualties attendant thereto is pretty horrifying.

quite possible. this is why i have tempered my support of this action. what exactly are our goals? and how do we accomplish them? obama at first said, gaddafi must go, now he says we won't remove him. if we arm the so called rebels, i'm pretty much in agreement with you, it has not historically worked out and historically those weapons have later been used against us. the information from the whitehouse in the beginning made it sound as if this was another egypt type situation where it was the "people" who wanted freedom and i thought we were going in quick and removing gaddafi, resulting in an egypt type situation, but that is clearly not happening. if we go the route of arming the rebels, there is the great potential that civil war will last for years resulting a huge number of casualties.

imo, i think its important to know who the rebels are. in all honesty, it could be that gaddafi might be better for US interests than the rebels. i just don't know, as obama isn't talking about the rebels.

 

[Topspin]

how was it debunked, the NATO military guy says Al Queda is among the rebels. He'll be fired and replaced with a line toater.

 

[Cancel 2016.2]

I hope that the don't arm the rebels crowd wins the debate, though if history is any guide, they won't. What the hell are they thinking? This is one of th main reasons that I opposed military intervention at the outset.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/world/africa/30diplo.html?_r=1

Agreed. If we are going for regime change, then it should be the UN/NATO led forces that do the removing (including Arab League partners). We should in no manner arm the rebels. For one, they are not experienced enough to take out Gaddafi forces on their own, even with weapons. Second, there are almost certainly radical extremists within the rebel groups that could use the weapons to take control of the rebel movement.... thus leaving us with bad outcome A or bad outcome B scenario.

 

[Topspin]

Libya: al-Qaeda among Libya rebels, Nato chief fears
Libyan rebel forces may have been infiltrated by al-Qaeda fighters, a senior American military commander has warned.
By Robert Winnett, and Duncan Gardham 9:00PM BST 29 Mar 2011
Admiral James Stavridis, Nato's Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, said that American intelligence had picked up "flickers" of terrorist activity among the rebel groups. Senior British government figures described the comment as "very alarming".

The admission came as the American, Qatari and British Governments indicated that they were considering arming rebel groups, who yesterday suffered a series of setbacks in their advance along the Libyan coast towards Tripoli.

The plan is likely to spark further splits in the international coalition, with Nato and Italian sources indicating the move would require another United Nations resolution.

On Tuesday more than 40 ministers from around the world met at a conference in London to discuss the situation in Libya.

They agreed to establish formal links with opposition groups in the rebel-stronghold of Benghazi with several countries sending official envoys to the area. Libyan opposition leaders yesterday also travelled to Britain for talks with David Cameron and Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State.
Britain and America signalled they would allow Colonel Muammar Gaddafi to seek exile – rather than face a war crimes trial – if he agrees to step aside immediately.

However, the emerging plan being discussed for the political future of Libya was undermined by the growing military doubts over the make-up of the rebel groups.

"We are examining very closely the content, composition, the personalities, who are the leaders of these opposition forces," Admiral Stavridis said in testimony yesterday to the US Senate.

While the opposition's leadership appeared to be "responsible men and women" fighting the Gaddafi regime, Admiral Stavridis said, "we have seen flickers in the intelligence of potential al Qaeda, Hizbollah, we've seen different things."

"But at this point I don't have detail sufficient to say there is a significant al-Qaeda presence or any other terrorist presence," he added.

The remarks are likely to be seized on by Col Gaddafi who has repeatedly claimed that the uprising is being driven by terrorists.

Last night a series of powerful explosions rocked Tripoli and state television said several targets in the Libyan capital had come under attack from "crusader aggressors". Tripoli residents said the latest explosions took place in the east of the capital but their exact location was not clear. Aircraft were heard above Tripoli earlier in the day.

Rebel forces retreated from attacks on Sirte after meeting heavy resistance in the town, Col Gaddafi's birthplace. The front line was reported to be near again to Bin Jawad, a town recaptured by rebels in recent days. There were also unconfirmed reports last night that the rebels were in trouble further back on the road heading east, around the oil town of Ras Lanuf.

Last night, Baroness Warsi, the Muslim cabinet minister and co-chairman of the Conservatives, said the comments about the composition of the rebel force were "very concerning".

"That is the first I'm hearing of the news, of course it is very concerning," she said. "What we've heard today is their [the Libyan Interim National Council's] version of a new Libya. I'm confident it is not a post-Gaddafi Libya that includes al-Qaeda."

William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, sought to play down the concerns, welcoming a document from opposition leaders backing the creation of a free democracy in Libya. He said that there was a greater risk of terrorist threats if Britain and other countries did not intervene.

But, Mr Hague said: "We can never be complacent about the way events like this could turn out … Of course, there is a danger, if things go wrong in the region on a sustained basis, there could be opportunities for terrorism."

Mr Cameron accused the Gaddafi regime of launching "murderous attacks" on people in Misurata, Libya's third largest city.

Regime tanks surrounded the city and fired on apartment blocks in the city which was described as being "under siege". Snipers were also said to have taken rooftop positions to pick off rebel fighters.

Yesterday, the Prime Minister said: "As this broad range of countries gathers here today in London, there are people suffering terribly under Gaddafi's rule. Our message to them is this: there are better days ahead for Libya."

It was announced that Nato is in the process of assuming command of the military operation and will be in full control by tomorrow. Several other countries also pledged to support the action.

Humanitarian groups will be encouraged to offer assistance to Libyans in safe areas.
X Share & bookmark
Delicious Facebook Google Messenger Reddit Twitter Digg Fark LinkedIn Google Buzz StumbleUpon Y! Buzz What are these? Share: Share
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...aeda-among-Libya-rebels-Nato-chief-fears.html
Telegraph
Libya News
News »World News »Africa and Indian Ocean »Duncan Gardham »Robert Winnett »In news