Arizona might flip for trump!

B

BRUTALITOPS

on indefiniate mod break
Contributor
You heard it here first

I'll show my work, let me walk you through it with my genius:

early this evening, There is 430k votes remaining, trump at a deficit of 68k

Trump needs to do around 58% for the rest of the remaining state. (430k-68k) = 363k | 363k * .51 = 184k | 184k + 68k =252k | 252 / 430 = .587

The remaining ballots are ballots pre-filled and dropped off in person.

This skews more conservative because while the media is considering these ballots "early voting" or "mail in ballots," they are functionally election day votes. They took their ballot, walked to the polls, and dropped it, in person.

These ballots were done from 11/2 - 11/4

They are doing oldest to newest. The closest we get to election day, the more it skews conservative.

These votes are coming from liberal maricopa county.

They are releasing batches of 50-60k at once tonight (i think they stopped now)

First batch that came in was 57% trump advantage

Second batch just came in. Demos were 39-26-30 rep-dem-independent. Trump gained 10k net. 35k-25k. The magic number we are seeing? 58%

That's two batches in a row from the most liberal county. There are still red counties ostanding. So far, trump is on pace with no area worse than where he already is

Independents in the state were leaning trump

So now we have data from two counties, in the most liberal area, oldest first, and they are both saying trump 58% roughly. As we get more batches in (next might be tomorrow afternoon) they might continue to skew trump as it becomes more equiv to election day voting which was 2:1 trump

The only mitigating factor is if the independents hold with trump. So far, they have in arizona. Basically we've knocked down a couple of dominoes, and if we get like another, we are fucking GOOD. Arizona will be fucking flipped. It was +900 last I checked. This is super early deep level news only retrieved from a genius like myself.

I can't find a place to bet or I would be betting trump now for arizona (even if trump loses no way his equity is this bad at this point) :(

I hope I don't look like an idiot :(
 
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Trump is holding the line in GA and PA

Even if trump loses GA if he flips AZ and keeps PA we'll be at 269-269 LOL

Trump legit might still win the god damn presidency
 
dukkha said:
58 is a tough lift . are they all from maricopa county.
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yes. and even redder counties with more bulk. Yes it's a razor thin margin but with so many votes outstanding, trump has now had two bulks released and they've both been 58%. This will be a nailbiter.
 
if like the next release is a rando 51 oor 52% it's prob not good but two sets already and we are going to be getting newer votes, this could be very promising.
 
unlike the cheater states like WI, MI, and PA, where their early and mail in were counted last, AZ was counting them first. Trump should close this gap, the data set will continue to skew towards him and he's already hit 58% twice.
 
AProudLefty said:
I wonder if they are counting the dead donkeys at the bottom of the Grand Canyon?
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Democrat_Convention_Dead_Donkey_Bounce.jpg


They're still counting.
 
Trump is holding PA.

I just looked at the numbers on NYT and trump still has a 160k vote lead. Most blue counties are in now. Allegheny county has 80k votes left. even if you give biden 80 percent of that, that's only a net gain of 50k. Fuck, give him 100%. He still needs to find another 80k votes. Centre county, the next biggest dem strong hold with votes oustanding only has 11k total.

Chester county is 98% in. Montgomery 98% in.

Delware county only 83% in leaving 57k votes up for grabs. Give biden all of them. Biden is Still 30k short

There is literally NO WHERE else in PA where there are votes. They don't exist.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

Unless NYT has wrong information, trump should hold PA
 
AP doesn't call a state unless it's statically impossible for a candidate to catch up. They have an extraordinarily complex system in place, which includes people on the ground. They've called Arizona for Biden.
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
oh hi CNN have you been reading my posts on JPP?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1324259387548917760
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Didn’t I tell you not to worry

Remember the guy in the first debate with Buyden? That’s the guy we want. A fighter.

The left knows they lost this election they were counting on cheating to do it

It’s why Fox called Arizona when people in Arizona were still in line.

They know where these races are going.

Georgia should have been called Tuesday night.

Florida should have been called at 7:30. The media colluded to not call it because they knew that if Florida was called that early it would have signaled a good night for Trump and dem voters would have bailed. Would have made it harder to “manufacture” votes.

Now consider that Wisconsin and Minnesota supposedly had almost 90% turnout of registered voters? Really?

I think Trump won Minnesota too but Ellison sent out the rallying cry for more “ballots”

The left on this board know deep down Trump won
 
Teflon Don said:
Didn’t I tell you not to worry

Remember the guy in the first debate with Buyden? That’s the guy we want. A fighter.

The left knows they lost this election they were counting on cheating to do it

It’s why Fox called Arizona when people in Arizona were still in line.

They know where these races are going.

Georgia should have been called Tuesday night.

Florida should have been called at 7:30. The media colluded to not call it because they knew that if Florida was called that early it would have signaled a good night for Trump and dem voters would have bailed. Would have made it harder to “manufacture” votes.

Now consider that Wisconsin and Minnesota supposedly had almost 90% turnout of registered voters? Really?

I think Trump won Minnesota too but Ellison sent out the rallying cry for more “ballots”

The left on this board know deep down Trump won
Click to expand...

You're nuts.
 
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