A Wall Street vet’s Walmart recession indicator just hit its highest point since 2008—and he says the fear ‘just keeps multiplying’

[Guno צְבִי]

Forget the Fed. Forget nonfarm employment. Forget even industrial production and real income. For Jim Paulsen, the real recession indicator is watching Walmart.

Paulsen, former chief investment strategist at investment research firm the Leuthold Group, devised an indicator he dubs the “Walmart Recession Signal” (WRS), which tracks the stock price of Walmart against the S&P Global Luxury Index, a basket of 80 companies producing or distributing luxury goods. He said that since economic downturns are usually felt first by lower-income individuals, an increase in Walmart’s stock price could indicate a potential economic downturn.

Paulsen wrote in a Substack post that the indicator is now at its highest level since the 2008 Great Recession. “‘Walmart Worries’ just keep multiplying,” he wrote. “It’s currently close to the highest level ever recorded, which was during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008–09.”

A Wall Street vet’s Walmart recession indicator just hit its highest point since 2008—and he says the fear ‘just keeps multiplying’

Jim Paulsen’s “Walmart Recession Signal” has tracked closely with downturns in real GDP growth and unemployment spikes.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Grokmaster]

Then, there's this:


U.S. stocks soared on March 31, 2026, marking their best day in nearly a year as investors grew optimistic about a potential end to the war with Iran. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 1,100 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw significant gains, reversing earlier losses and concluding a volatile quarter.
+1
Market Performance Highlights (March 31, 2026):

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose by roughly 1,125 points or 2.5% to 46,341.51.
• S&P 500: Leaped 2.9% for its best day since May 2025.
• Nasdaq Composite: Jumped 3.8%.