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Thread: The Democratic wave is growing, just how big will it be?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nordberg View Post
    538 has a 75 percent chance the Dems take the house.
    depends what view you are looking at. it's 75% in classic which takes into account historical data and fundraising in addition to polls. lite just has the polls. deluxe has a bit more.

    but thanks for the headsup I might have to adjust the odds I accept a tinge


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    Quote Originally Posted by Mott the Hoople View Post
    I haven’t the foggiest notion what would happen but I’m sure there would be vast numbers of really pissed off women.
    and you think any of them would have voted for anyone except a demmycrat in the first place?......

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    Quote Originally Posted by cawacko View Post
    Ahhhh, I see. Pollsters don't predict who will win the presidency they just predict who will win the popular vote. Makes sense. Why predict what matters right?
    the step the demmycrats keep forgetting is to look at polls on a state by state basis.......personally I hope they never get it right.......

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    Quote Originally Posted by LV426 View Post
    I think the Democrats will probably pick up between 30-50 seats in the House, and might net out +1 or +2 in the Senate. Recent Senate polling in red seats like TN, NV, AZ, and even MS, show Democrats either ahead or breaking even.

    The real story is going to be at the state level...there, I think Democrats are going to clean up bigly. There are 25 governorships up in 2018, and I think Democrats have a real shot at flipping most of the red ones thanks to poor Conservative candidates and policies.
    Well if having control of redistricting is a priority you need more than Governorships. You need State Houses too.
    You're Never Alone With A Schizophrenic!

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    Quote Originally Posted by evince View Post
    soon they will all claim they didn't vote for trumpy

    just like none of them voted for Bush

    or Robmoney
    I voted for Trump......I voted for Romney.......I voted for McCain......I voted for Bush twice......

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    Quote Originally Posted by LV426 View Post
    What EC predictions? This is all within the context of the general polling showing a Democratic advantage in the midterms right now. What does the EC have to do with that? Nothing.

    You're just a garbage person. One of the worst of the worst.
    El Oh El. Sure thing homeboy. Some more words of wisdom, learn to read what people say instead of just assuming.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mott the Hoople View Post
    Well if having control of redistricting is a priority you need more than Governorships. You need State Houses too.
    And I think the tsunami is going to be felt most at the state level. That's what I was referring to when I said "the real story is going to be at the state level". I was just using governorships as an example, because I think you're going to see a lot of state houses shift from red to purple and/or blue.
    When I die, turn me into a brick and use me to cave in the skull of a fascist


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    Quote Originally Posted by PostmodernProphet View Post
    I voted for Trump......I voted for Romney.......I voted for McCain......I voted for Bush twice......
    So every single political choice you've made in your adult life has been wrong.

    Bravo.
    When I die, turn me into a brick and use me to cave in the skull of a fascist


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    Quote Originally Posted by PostmodernProphet View Post
    the step the demmycrats keep forgetting is to look at polls on a state by state basis.......personally I hope they never get it right.......
    you are partially correct.

    yes, state by state matters, but you can still take away trends and patterns from national data. For an extreme example, if democrats were up by 40 pts nationally, it should be pretty obvious to anyone with a brain that would translate very well for them on a state by state basis.

    Concurrently, lets say clinton in 2016 was projected to win the state of alabama by 10 pts. Now, one could say "hurrr durrr that's only one state, that doesn't have any say on what happens elsewhere" but again, anyone with a brain would be able to see that if clinton were going to win alabama by 10 points, that this would indicate an almost for sure electoral college victory, because if you are winning over a state 80%+ republican, you are almost certain to be polling as good if not better in any other state.

    So, national data correlates to state data. This is where electoral projections in part come from. Thorough analysis will take into account polling within states but also look at national trends and other correlating effects to get an accurate picture.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Mott the Hoople View Post
    Grind is basically right
    Quote Originally Posted by Phantasmal View Post
    Grind’s got you beat by miles. He is very intelligent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Irthriuth View Post
    I am apparently much more informed than you are. Again, just like 2016, you are the one that is clueless. I am not saying dems wont take the house. it's very likely. 66% likely in fact. But 33% is still a very high number for republicans to pull off keeping the house. This is basic data and statistics, and your arrogance or lack of understanding of this doesn't do you or your side any favors. your arrogance last election might have cost you, as you assumed it was all locked up and inevitable clinton would win, and you got bitchslapped.

    I wont be surprised at all if dems take the house. The opposition party almost always wins more seats in the midterm election. You on the otherhand will be blasted into the stratsophere if republicans keep control, and i'll be here laughing in your face if republicans roll a 5 or a 6 with you thinking such a thing is impossible.
    I predict they will not lose the house......I predict they will not even come close......I predict the Republicans will add seats in the Senate......

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    Quote Originally Posted by cawacko View Post
    El Oh El. Sure thing homeboy. Some more words of wisdom, learn to read what people say instead of just assuming.
    You're a fucking fraud and possibly the worst human being on these boards.

    You're such a duplicitous and phony piece of shit, you can't even own up to your own garbage tactics.
    When I die, turn me into a brick and use me to cave in the skull of a fascist


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    Quote Originally Posted by Nordberg View Post
    polling shows Dems have an 11 percent edge. that is very big.
    your problem is that generics don't vote.........you have to look at the polls on each individual election.......as with the popular vote the fact you might have a 20% edge in California elects no one in Michigan or Wisconsin....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Irthriuth View Post
    you are partially correct.

    yes, state by state matters, but you can still take away trends and patterns from national data. For an extreme example, if democrats were up by 40 pts nationally, it should be pretty obvious to anyone with a brain that would translate very well for them on a state by state basis.

    Concurrently, lets say clinton in 2016 was projected to win the state of alabama by 10 pts. Now, one could say "hurrr durrr that's only one state, that doesn't have any say on what happens elsewhere" but again, anyone with a brain would be able to see that if clinton were going to win alabama by 10 points, that this would indicate an almost for sure electoral college victory, because if you are winning over a state 80%+ republican, you are almost certain to be polling as good if not better in any other state.

    So, national data correlates to state data. This is where electoral projections in part come from. Thorough analysis will take into account polling within states but also look at national trends and other correlating effects to get an accurate picture.
    all I can say is that a 30% generic edge on the house elections sounds an awful lot like Trump's 30% chance of winning......

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    Quote Originally Posted by PostmodernProphet View Post
    the step the demmycrats keep forgetting is to look at polls on a state by state basis.......personally I hope they never get it right.......
    the cracka christer base of the white peoples party are dying off
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    Quote Originally Posted by LV426 View Post
    You're a fucking fraud and possibly the worst human being on these boards.

    You're such a duplicitous and phony piece of shit, you can't even own up to your own garbage tactics.
    Once again all you can do is name call and make projections. Hell of a guy you are

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