Truth Detector (10-17-2020)
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It should be noted that this is not a prediction. This is just a deep level analysis based on what we know today based on state polling, as well as how the candidates are conducting their campaign.
The country has been flooded with some junk polling lately showing Biden with double digit national lead over Trump. Of course Real Clear Politics will be quick to throw these junk polls into their "average" to skew the "average" in favor of Biden.
While I don't completely discount these polls and I will admit seeing Rasmussen with a double digit lead did get my attention, I have to remind myself AND you that the Presidential election is played for Electoral College votes and not the "national vote" despite what the marxists tell you.
So with that in mind does Trump have a path to 270 Electoral College Votes? Actually he has a very strong path.
I have broken the analysis into four groups. Group 1 are states with very little chance of voting for Biden. Group 2 are states marxists make some noise about, but are probably still going to be red. Group 3 are the same battleground states that have been fought over since 2000 and finally Group 4 are today's haul of battle ground states.
So, let's begin
Group 1 = 126 EV
These states should be a lock for Trump.
Montana - 3, Alaska - 3, Idaho - 4, Wyoming - 3, N. Dakota - 3, S. Dakota - 3, Nebraska - 5, Utah - 6, Kansas - 6, Oklahoma - 7, Missouri - 10, Arkansas - 6, Louisiana - 8, Mississippi - 6, Alabama - 9, Tennessee - 11, Kentucky - 8, S. Carolina - 9, Indiana - 11, W. Virginia - 5
Group 2 = 60 EV
This group are states that you heard noises about democrats trying to flip and who knows, maybe someday they will, but not in 2020
Texas - 38, Georgia - 16, Iowa - 6
Group 3 = 47 EV
Basically these two states have been fought over since 2000 and the winner of both of these states has won the election going back decades. I haven't heard much of Biden doing anything in Ohio and things I have been reading is that Biden is struggling big time with the hispanic vote in Florida. One article I read was that his lead in Miami over Trump is 17 points. Hillary won Miami by 30 points. That would make Florida impossible for Biden to win and also explains why he made a campaign stop there. When you are shoring up what should be a safe city this late in the game, that is not good.
Florida - 29, Ohio - 18
Group 1 + Group 2 + Group 3 = 233 Electoral Votes
These are all states Trump won in 2016 and barring something crazy, should be on track to win them again in 2020. That leaves him with 37 Electoral Votes to get to 270
This brings us too..........
Group 4 = 83 EV
This is where all of the action is going to be come election day.
North Carolina - 15 Electoral Votes
Definitely a state that is in play and the democrats are fighting hard or it. It looks like it is coming around to Trump and I suspect that Cal Cunningham's recent scandal is not going to help democrats particularly in their bid to take back the Senate because Thom Tillis was one of the weakest Republicans running for re-election. Right now, I think NC is lean Trump but it is going to be close
Arizona - 11 Electoral Votes
Another state that is going to be close and the polling has sort of been all over the place, but I think it is coming back Trump's way
Maine 2 - 1 Electoral vote
Hillary won Maine 2 in 2016 but it looks like Trump can flip it this year
If Trump wins Arizona, North Carolina and Maine 2 that puts him at 260 needing only 10 Electoral Votes to secure re-election
Pennsylvania - 20, Michigan - 16, Wisconsin - 10, New Hampshire - 4, Nevada - 6
Of the above, Trump won three in 2016 and Crooked Hillary won two
Trump just needs one of the three he won in 2016 to get to 270. Of the three, I think Pennsylvania looks the strongest because of Bidens stance on banning fracking and what I have been reading about GOP voter registration. I think Michigan may be the weakest and Trump could lose that this year
Additionally, New Hampshire and Nevada were very close in 2016 and there are signs that Trump isn't doing horribly if he can flip both of them he gets to 270
And then there are the other states that could be in play. Minnesota was VERY close to flipping in 2016. And while very long shots, there are New Mexico and Colorado (I seriously doubt those)
Final Analysis
Again, despite what others will claim, this is not intended to be a prediction. It is a deep level analysis of the Electoral College as I see it today. Of course this is a very unpredictable year and anything can happen. But, no matter where you sit on the political spectrum it would be foolish to think that Trump doesn't have a path to 270 Electoral College votes which is the only vote that matters
Last edited by canceled.2021.2; 10-08-2020 at 11:03 PM.
Truth Detector (10-17-2020)
Anyone who believes that Biden is ahead by 11 points in the polls is not paying attention
Anyone who believes that Biden is ahead by 7 points in the polls is not paying attention
Stop looking at polls and look at behaviors. Start looking at what campaigns are doing at this late stage in the game
There are 23 days left to go in the campaign and the most valuable resource a campaign has right now is TIME. You can't fund raise for more time. George Soros can't give Joe Biden more time. He can funnel illegal dark money through Act Blue, but he can't turn back the clock.
Watch where the candidates go in the remaining 23 days. Biden was in Erie PA, Miami FL and Las Vegas NV. If Biden were REALLY ahead by 11 points nationally, he wouldn't be in those three places this late in the game. Anyone saying he is "shoring up support" is whistling past the graveyard. If you are up 11 points in the state of Pennsylvania that means you are up 16 in Erie PA. You don't go to places where you are up 16 and you surely aren't still trying to convince people you won't ban fracking even though you are on video saying you will ban fracking.
The last time Biden was in Vegas was a year ago
Miami FL? Hillary won it by 30 points. Biden is up 17
If Biden were up 11 points nationally, he would be barnstorming Texas right now, not sending surrogates. He would be barnstorming North Carolina and Georgia right now.
Have hope. The fundamentals are favoring President Trump even though the polls are not
Matt Dillon (10-17-2020), Truth Detector (10-17-2020)
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
Doc Dutch (10-28-2020)
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
Based on the current state of the race you are delusional. Trump is losing badly in the 4 Great Lakes states. He is close in Iowa and Ohio. Losing in Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire.
Close in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.
Unless things change dramatically in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania I don’t see how Trump can win.
Last edited by Jarod; 10-17-2020 at 07:47 AM.
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
Are you saying that there is NO path to 270 from the 233 Trump has in the bank? Because I am not saying that he is guaranteed to win those states. I am saying that he has a very solid path to 270.
So you have accepted that he has 233 in the bank. So how does he get the other 37?
Well here are some combinations
NC + AZ + MN
NC + AZ + WI
NC + AZ + PA
PA + WI + NH
PA + WI + NV
PA + WI + AZ
I could go on, but you get the point. Trump has a path forward and he doesn't have to win all of the rust belt states. Biden can't win without the rust belt states. This isn't hard to figure out if you are grounded in reality and logic as I am
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
Nate Silver is smarter than you, by a long shot.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ut-they-could/
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
How so? He gave Trump more of a chance of winning than most. As long as he gave him a chance.... he was not wrong. Learn logic.
If I say something has a 1% chance of happening, and then it happens... I was not wrong, it just means one out of a hundred happened. That is common.
When you buy a ticket, you have a 1 in 14,000,000 chance of winning the Florida lottery, and someone wins about 35 times a year.
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
cancel2 2022 (10-18-2020)
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