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Thread: An Idea for Immigration

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    Default An Idea for Immigration

    To get it out of the way, some will be tempted to reply "tl;dr" and move on. Consider it done and save yourself the time. But for those willing to put in some time and thought, here's an idea for addressing our real immigration issues.

    First, let's clear away the manufactured panic over illegal immigration. You may not know it from watching Fox News, but there's no actual border crisis. Illegal immigration in this country has fallen greatly from its peak back in the Clinton years. And, anecdotes of individual criminal acts by illegal immigrants notwithstanding, illegal immigrants tend to be less violent, on average, than native-born Americans, so those immigrants are actually making the US safer.

    It goes beyond that. We desperately need a large increase in immigrants in this country, due to the imminent explosion of a demographic time bomb. The short-form briefing is this: with Baby Boomers heading into retirement, we're poised for a couple lost economic decades, similar to, but worse than, what Japan suffered through, because we simply have too few younger workers. Immigrants tend to come from the exact age groups that we need to bolster to balance our demographic mix, so boosting immigration will make us far better off in the decades to come. The real immigration crisis is a crisis of immigration falling exactly when we need it to surge.

    If that short form isn't clear or convincing, watch this video, which isn't actually about immigration, but gets into a fair amount of economic detail about the nature of the demographic timebomb we're facing. It's harrowing:



    Nonetheless, I think we can all agree that solving this problem with legal immigration would be better than solving it with illegal immigration, and that bringing in motivated workers who will assimilate beats the alternative. So, here's the idea:

    Fund a giant university just south of the border -- with a long-term lease for the land from the Mexican government. Make it big enough to house 1,000,000 people, at least (less than twice the size of the state university system of New York, and half the size of the California Community Colleges system, to put it in perspective.) The idea would be to provide no-cost education to people who want to come to the US.

    Enrollees would be given adequate, no-frills food and housing for themselves and their dependent children. In exchange, they'd need to stick with a particular program. First, children and adults would all take intensive English-language education. The children would also get grade-level-appropriate general instruction, while the adults would take vocational instruction appropriate for their backgrounds and skills and the needs of the US job market, plus some civics and social training to prepare them for life in the US. In addition, the adults would be required to work 20 hours per week on tasks that decrease the operating cost of the university (doing low-level maintenance and admin work, and helping to grow and prepare the food).

    The adults would graduate with a certificate once they'd achieved (a) working-level fluency in English, (b) demonstrated skill at something that will make them employable at a living wage in the US, and (c) basic knowledge of US civics/culture/history, equivalent to an easier version of the citizenship test. The certificate would come with a permanent work visa (so long as they avoided any serious legal trouble), and residency visas for their dependent children. Thus, graduation would signify to US employers that they're legally able to work, and have certain basic skills.

    For some, graduation could be achieved almost immediately, if they've already got English skills, a decent education, and some practical skills. They'd only stay long enough to pass background checks and take their tests, and then they'd be on to the US. For others, it might take several years, like a real university. But, on average, I'm picturing about two years, such that the system would churn out 500,000 new legal residents per year (about 300k illegal border crossers are apprehended per year, to put it in perspective).

    This would have a lot of advantages. First, it would give us somewhere to safely house refugees and their families pending hearings, in an academic, rather than penal system. Two, it would greatly decrease illegal immigration, by filling up the jobs that are drawing illegal workers with documented ones. Third, it would create an immigrant community that is more productive, employable, and prepped to integrate. Fourth, it would serve as a vetting period, to weed out problem immigrants. Fifth, it would fast-track the most motivated immigrants.

    How much would it cost? Tough to say, but here's a back-of-the-envelope calculation. In Mexico, the monthly costs for basic needs for a couple with 2 children is about $320 (converted from pesos):

    http://bajainsider.com/article/mexic...-do-they-do-it

    In theory you could go much cheaper with the communal living and the people contributing to their own support, but just to be safe we'll go the other way and round that up to $1,000 per person, per year. Public universities cost between $378 and $818 per year in Mexico, but let's round up the high end of that, too, to be safe, to $1,000 per year for the education I'm talking about. So, $2,000 per person, per year, total. Multiply by 1 million people, and you get $2 billion in annual cost.

    The Trump wall, by comparison, has been estimated to cost as much as $70 billion, followed by $150 million per year to maintain.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/u...ost-trump.html

    So, a thirty-year cost for each would be as much as $74.5 billion for Trump's wall, or $60 billion for my idea. Trump's wall would likely prove entirely useless, but even if it succeeded, what it would succeed in doing is making the detonation of our demographic time bomb vastly more painful than it needs to be. My idea, by comparison, would help to defuse that time bomb, while benefiting America with many millions of graduates who will become well-integrated and productive members of society.

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    What an interesting concept. Have you ever thought of sending this in as a Letter to the Editorial of publications with a wide circulation, or to some of our congresscritters?

    Prediction: The Right won't like it because it will let in more brown ppl; they'd rather have immigrants from Norway. The Left won't like it because they want free education for U.S. citizens first.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThatOwlWoman View Post
    What an interesting concept. Have you ever thought of sending this in as a Letter to the Editorial of publications with a wide circulation, or to some of our congresscritters?

    Prediction: The Right won't like it because it will let in more brown ppl; they'd rather have immigrants from Norway. The Left won't like it because they want free education for U.S. citizens first.
    I agree the right won't like it, but it could still have value in countering their claim that the left has no ideas for immigration, other than blocking Republican ideas.

    As for the left's objection, I agree you're likely to hear that. I suppose one solution would be to open it up to everyone. I doubt many Americans would take them up on the offer to live in spartan conditions, south of our border, in order to learn some low-level vocational skills and civics, much less if it came with a helping of janitorial duties, etc. The conditions I'm picturing would be entirely humane, and probably an upgrade for most of those from Central America choosing to go there, but for most US citizens, it would be rough.

    However, if it turns out to work well, it could serve as a guide for a more stripped-down free college experience in the US, as well. I mean, picture experimental schools where campuses and classes are stripped of all their frills, and students are assigned 20 hours of chores per week, in exchange for a free degree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oneuli View Post
    To get it out of the way, some will be tempted to reply "tl;dr" and move on. Consider it done and save yourself the time. But for those willing to put in some time and thought, here's an idea for addressing our real immigration issues.

    First, let's clear away the manufactured panic over illegal immigration. You may not know it from watching Fox News, but there's no actual border crisis. Illegal immigration in this country has fallen greatly from its peak back in the Clinton years. And, anecdotes of individual criminal acts by illegal immigrants notwithstanding, illegal immigrants tend to be less violent, on average, than native-born Americans, so those immigrants are actually making the US safer.

    It goes beyond that. We desperately need a large increase in immigrants in this country, due to the imminent explosion of a demographic time bomb. The short-form briefing is this: with Baby Boomers heading into retirement, we're poised for a couple lost economic decades, similar to, but worse than, what Japan suffered through, because we simply have too few younger workers. Immigrants tend to come from the exact age groups that we need to bolster to balance our demographic mix, so boosting immigration will make us far better off in the decades to come. The real immigration crisis is a crisis of immigration falling exactly when we need it to surge.

    If that short form isn't clear or convincing, watch this video, which isn't actually about immigration, but gets into a fair amount of economic detail about the nature of the demographic timebomb we're facing. It's harrowing:



    Nonetheless, I think we can all agree that solving this problem with legal immigration would be better than solving it with illegal immigration, and that bringing in motivated workers who will assimilate beats the alternative. So, here's the idea:

    Fund a giant university just south of the border -- with a long-term lease for the land from the Mexican government. Make it big enough to house 1,000,000 people, at least (less than twice the size of the state university system of New York, and half the size of the California Community Colleges system, to put it in perspective.) The idea would be to provide no-cost education to people who want to come to the US.

    Enrollees would be given adequate, no-frills food and housing for themselves and their dependent children. In exchange, they'd need to stick with a particular program. First, children and adults would all take intensive English-language education. The children would also get grade-level-appropriate general instruction, while the adults would take vocational instruction appropriate for their backgrounds and skills and the needs of the US job market, plus some civics and social training to prepare them for life in the US. In addition, the adults would be required to work 20 hours per week on tasks that decrease the operating cost of the university (doing low-level maintenance and admin work, and helping to grow and prepare the food).

    The adults would graduate with a certificate once they'd achieved (a) working-level fluency in English, (b) demonstrated skill at something that will make them employable at a living wage in the US, and (c) basic knowledge of US civics/culture/history, equivalent to an easier version of the citizenship test. The certificate would come with a permanent work visa (so long as they avoided any serious legal trouble), and residency visas for their dependent children. Thus, graduation would signify to US employers that they're legally able to work, and have certain basic skills.

    For some, graduation could be achieved almost immediately, if they've already got English skills, a decent education, and some practical skills. They'd only stay long enough to pass background checks and take their tests, and then they'd be on to the US. For others, it might take several years, like a real university. But, on average, I'm picturing about two years, such that the system would churn out 500,000 new legal residents per year (about 300k illegal border crossers are apprehended per year, to put it in perspective).

    This would have a lot of advantages. First, it would give us somewhere to safely house refugees and their families pending hearings, in an academic, rather than penal system. Two, it would greatly decrease illegal immigration, by filling up the jobs that are drawing illegal workers with documented ones. Third, it would create an immigrant community that is more productive, employable, and prepped to integrate. Fourth, it would serve as a vetting period, to weed out problem immigrants. Fifth, it would fast-track the most motivated immigrants.

    How much would it cost? Tough to say, but here's a back-of-the-envelope calculation. In Mexico, the monthly costs for basic needs for a couple with 2 children is about $320 (converted from pesos):

    http://bajainsider.com/article/mexic...-do-they-do-it

    In theory you could go much cheaper with the communal living and the people contributing to their own support, but just to be safe we'll go the other way and round that up to $1,000 per person, per year. Public universities cost between $378 and $818 per year in Mexico, but let's round up the high end of that, too, to be safe, to $1,000 per year for the education I'm talking about. So, $2,000 per person, per year, total. Multiply by 1 million people, and you get $2 billion in annual cost.

    The Trump wall, by comparison, has been estimated to cost as much as $70 billion, followed by $150 million per year to maintain.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/u...ost-trump.html

    So, a thirty-year cost for each would be as much as $74.5 billion for Trump's wall, or $60 billion for my idea. Trump's wall would likely prove entirely useless, but even if it succeeded, what it would succeed in doing is making the detonation of our demographic time bomb vastly more painful than it needs to be. My idea, by comparison, would help to defuse that time bomb, while benefiting America with many millions of graduates who will become well-integrated and productive members of society.
    End all immigration, until we figure out and finally take care of the homeless and welfare problems we have in the US.

    Then we can begin being concerned about those who aren't US citizens.

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    so essentially we let third world shitholers extort us or else they'll just come into our country anyway with a dumber IQ and poor skills and shit in our streets, so we better give them money. nice plan.
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    your thesis is utterly wrong - illegals are by and large unskilled,and we have no shortage of those workers already.

    but this caught my eye:

    Fund a giant university just south of the border -- with a long-term lease for the land from the Mexican government.
    Obrador has plans for an economic zone along their border with the US

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oneuli View Post
    To get it out of the way, some will be tempted to reply "tl;dr" and move on. Consider it done and save yourself the time. But for those willing to put in some time and thought, here's an idea for addressing our real immigration issues.

    First, let's clear away the manufactured panic over illegal immigration. You may not know it from watching Fox News, but there's no actual border crisis. Illegal immigration in this country has fallen greatly from its peak back in the Clinton years. And, anecdotes of individual criminal acts by illegal immigrants notwithstanding, illegal immigrants tend to be less violent, on average, than native-born Americans, so those immigrants are actually making the US safer.

    It goes beyond that. We desperately need a large increase in immigrants in this country, due to the imminent explosion of a demographic time bomb. The short-form briefing is this: with Baby Boomers heading into retirement, we're poised for a couple lost economic decades, similar to, but worse than, what Japan suffered through, because we simply have too few younger workers. Immigrants tend to come from the exact age groups that we need to bolster to balance our demographic mix, so boosting immigration will make us far better off in the decades to come. The real immigration crisis is a crisis of immigration falling exactly when we need it to surge.

    If that short form isn't clear or convincing, watch this video, which isn't actually about immigration, but gets into a fair amount of economic detail about the nature of the demographic timebomb we're facing. It's harrowing:



    Nonetheless, I think we can all agree that solving this problem with legal immigration would be better than solving it with illegal immigration, and that bringing in motivated workers who will assimilate beats the alternative. So, here's the idea:

    Fund a giant university just south of the border -- with a long-term lease for the land from the Mexican government. Make it big enough to house 1,000,000 people, at least (less than twice the size of the state university system of New York, and half the size of the California Community Colleges system, to put it in perspective.) The idea would be to provide no-cost education to people who want to come to the US.

    Enrollees would be given adequate, no-frills food and housing for themselves and their dependent children. In exchange, they'd need to stick with a particular program. First, children and adults would all take intensive English-language education. The children would also get grade-level-appropriate general instruction, while the adults would take vocational instruction appropriate for their backgrounds and skills and the needs of the US job market, plus some civics and social training to prepare them for life in the US. In addition, the adults would be required to work 20 hours per week on tasks that decrease the operating cost of the university (doing low-level maintenance and admin work, and helping to grow and prepare the food).

    The adults would graduate with a certificate once they'd achieved (a) working-level fluency in English, (b) demonstrated skill at something that will make them employable at a living wage in the US, and (c) basic knowledge of US civics/culture/history, equivalent to an easier version of the citizenship test. The certificate would come with a permanent work visa (so long as they avoided any serious legal trouble), and residency visas for their dependent children. Thus, graduation would signify to US employers that they're legally able to work, and have certain basic skills.

    For some, graduation could be achieved almost immediately, if they've already got English skills, a decent education, and some practical skills. They'd only stay long enough to pass background checks and take their tests, and then they'd be on to the US. For others, it might take several years, like a real university. But, on average, I'm picturing about two years, such that the system would churn out 500,000 new legal residents per year (about 300k illegal border crossers are apprehended per year, to put it in perspective).

    This would have a lot of advantages. First, it would give us somewhere to safely house refugees and their families pending hearings, in an academic, rather than penal system. Two, it would greatly decrease illegal immigration, by filling up the jobs that are drawing illegal workers with documented ones. Third, it would create an immigrant community that is more productive, employable, and prepped to integrate. Fourth, it would serve as a vetting period, to weed out problem immigrants. Fifth, it would fast-track the most motivated immigrants.

    How much would it cost? Tough to say, but here's a back-of-the-envelope calculation. In Mexico, the monthly costs for basic needs for a couple with 2 children is about $320 (converted from pesos):

    http://bajainsider.com/article/mexic...-do-they-do-it

    In theory you could go much cheaper with the communal living and the people contributing to their own support, but just to be safe we'll go the other way and round that up to $1,000 per person, per year. Public universities cost between $378 and $818 per year in Mexico, but let's round up the high end of that, too, to be safe, to $1,000 per year for the education I'm talking about. So, $2,000 per person, per year, total. Multiply by 1 million people, and you get $2 billion in annual cost.

    The Trump wall, by comparison, has been estimated to cost as much as $70 billion, followed by $150 million per year to maintain.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/u...ost-trump.html

    So, a thirty-year cost for each would be as much as $74.5 billion for Trump's wall, or $60 billion for my idea. Trump's wall would likely prove entirely useless, but even if it succeeded, what it would succeed in doing is making the detonation of our demographic time bomb vastly more painful than it needs to be. My idea, by comparison, would help to defuse that time bomb, while benefiting America with many millions of graduates who will become well-integrated and productive members of society.
    Nothing wrong with thinking outside the box on immigration. We need to address the real issue of our broken system in how we receive immigrants. We clearly have a need for cheap labor. We need a better system to allow (temporary) workers into the country to fill that need otherwise things will never change. I don't think we need to pay to train these outside workers. Many of the jobs; picking fruit, landscaping, cleaning at a hotel etc. the workers already have the skills for. So I'm not sure about setting up a school and paying to do what these other countries should be doing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThatOwlWoman View Post
    What an interesting concept. Have you ever thought of sending this in as a Letter to the Editorial of publications with a wide circulation, or to some of our congresscritters?

    .
    that's a joke right?

    I quit reading when she said illegal immigration is not a problem, kind of hard to get past stone cold nut-bag talk
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    Quote Originally Posted by USFREEDOM911 View Post
    End all immigration, until we figure out and finally take care of the homeless and welfare problems we have in the US.
    I'd invite you to watch the video. If we end all immigration, dealing with such problems will get MUCH harder, not easier. The big-picture issue faced by any nation is demographic. It's something called a dependency ratio. If that ratio gets too far out of line, due either to having too many young children below working age, or too many old people past working age, the math stops adding up. You wind up with long-term depression of the economy, until the demographic kink works its way out of the system in decades. But you can minimize that problem by counteracting unusual demographic bulges with immigration. It's a win-win: the immigrants wind up better off, but so do the citizens.

    Take it from the perspective of a Baby Boomer nearing retirement, but with few savings. He can find that his already-inadequate savings fall still lower, as the others in his generation start to sell off stocks and bonds to finance retirement, dropping the value of his own stocks and bonds. He can then try to manage by continuing to work well into his golden years. But as the rest of his generation pares back their consumption in retirement, there isn't enough demand for those goods, so there will be an increasing temptation for the employer to let him go in favor of a much cheaper millennial. Now he's really screwed. He might want to sell his house and downsize, to use some of that equity to cover his expenses until he's got another job.... but there just aren't as many people in the coming generations looking to buy houses as there are boomers looking to cash out, so there may be little equity there for him. Meanwhile, his healthcare costs are growing, and that's one of the only areas where inflation will be strong, since his whole generation is suddenly in a physical state where they're putting a lot more demand on healthcare services, at the exact moment when there just aren't a whole lot of experienced doctors and nurses still working to provide that service. And there's a real risk his Social Security check will be cut, since there just aren't enough people paying into the system any more to keep the program solvent.

    It's a terrible situation. But it doesn't have to be. Boost immigration, with a focus on filling the demographic gap, and things get a lot easier. Now there's demand for those stocks and bonds the boomers want to sell. There are people looking to buy the houses the Boomers want to downsize from. There are lots of cheaper new healthcare workers to prevent inflation in that area from running out of control. And there are lots of people working and paying into social security to make sure that doesn't run out of money.

    It's common knowledge that you can't help someone else, if you can't even help yourself.
    Actually, there are all sorts of real-world circumstances where an individual cannot help himself, but could work together with someone else to help them both.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cornelius View Post
    so essentially we let third world shitholers extort us or else they'll just come into our country anyway with a dumber IQ and poor skills and shit in our streets, so we better give them money. nice plan.
    This isn't about extortion. If they weren't eager to come here on their own, we'd be wise to be actively recruiting them to come. We need them almost as much as they need us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by noise View Post
    your thesis is utterly wrong - illegals are by and large unskilled
    Reread. My post was largely about up-skilling our pool of immigrants. If you're concerned that the current immigrant mix is too heavy on the unskilled workers, that should be a mark in favor of my plan.
    Last edited by Oneuli; 01-04-2019 at 12:36 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cawacko View Post
    Nothing wrong with thinking outside the box on immigration. We need to address the real issue of our broken system in how we receive immigrants. We clearly have a need for cheap labor. We need a better system to allow (temporary) workers into the country to fill that need otherwise things will never change. I don't think we need to pay to train these outside workers. Many of the jobs; picking fruit, landscaping, cleaning at a hotel etc. the workers already have the skills for. So I'm not sure about setting up a school and paying to do what these other countries should be doing.
    One advantage of my system is that it's adaptable. If we decide that, economically, we need more low-skill workers, picking fruit, etc., then we can lower the standards for graduation to a bare minimum. If we decide, instead, that we need lower-middle-level skills (e.g., home healthcare workers for the aging Boomer population, who may need to help with insulin shots and such, but don't have to be nurses), then we can raise the standards and steer people into those specific skill sets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Getin the ring View Post
    that's a joke right?

    I quit reading when she said illegal immigration is not a problem, kind of hard to get past stone cold nut-bag talk
    There's the problem. For right-wingers, anything that runs contrary to their immediate, gut-level reaction must be shut out entirely: quit reading, before something slips by the defenses you've erected to protect your prejudices.

    For the record, I didn't say illegal immigration isn't a problem. In fact, I expressly assumed we'd all agree legal immigration would be better, which implies there is a problem with illegal immigration. I just pointed out that illegal immigration isn't a crisis -- that it has actually become significantly less common than it was, and doesn't represent the violence threat it's made out to be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oneuli View Post
    I'd invite you to watch the video. If we end all immigration, dealing with such problems will get MUCH harder, not easier. The big-picture issue faced by any nation is demographic. It's something called a dependency ratio. If that ratio gets too far out of line, due either to having too many young children below working age, or too many old people past working age, the math stops adding up. You wind up with long-term depression of the economy, until the demographic kink works its way out of the system in decades. But you can minimize that problem by counteracting unusual demographic bulges with immigration. It's a win-win: the immigrants wind up better off, but so do the citizens.

    Take it from the perspective of a Baby Boomer nearing retirement, but with few savings. He can find that his already-inadequate savings fall still lower, as the others in his generation start to sell off stocks and bonds to finance retirement, dropping the value of his own stocks and bonds. He can then try to manage by continuing to work well into his golden years. But as the rest of his generation pares back their consumption in retirement, there isn't enough demand for those goods, so there will be an increasing temptation for the employer to let him go in favor of a much cheaper millennial. Now he's really screwed. He might want to sell his house and downsize, to use some of that equity to cover his expenses until he's got another job.... but there just aren't as many people in the coming generations looking to buy houses as there are boomers looking to cash out, so there may be little equity there for him. Meanwhile, his healthcare costs are growing, and that's one of the only areas where inflation will be strong, since his whole generation is suddenly in a physical state where they're putting a lot more demand on healthcare services, at the exact moment when there just aren't a whole lot of experienced doctors and nurses still working to provide that service. And there's a real risk his Social Security check will be cut, since there just aren't enough people paying into the system any more to keep the program solvent.

    It's a terrible situation. But it doesn't have to be. Boost immigration, with a focus on filling the demographic gap, and things get a lot easier. Now there's demand for those stocks and bonds the boomers want to sell. There are people looking to buy the houses the Boomers want to downsize from. There are lots of cheaper new healthcare workers to prevent inflation in that area from running out of control. And there are lots of people working and paying into social security to make sure that doesn't run out of money.



    Actually, there are all sorts of real-world circumstances where an individual cannot help himself, but could work together with someone else to help them both.
    AWWWWWWWWWW, you only want to speak of IMMIGRATION and not ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION; because the majority of the problems and discussions have been regarding the ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, but then, you probably don't know the difference.

    I hold to my premise; because if the problems were addressed and focused on, they could probably be dealt with in under a year and then we could address the LEGAL IMMIGRANT problems.

    Or do you want to put everyone and anyone first, before Americans
    SEDITION: incitement of resistance to or insurrection against lawful authority.


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    Quote Originally Posted by USFREEDOM911 View Post
    AWWWWWWWWWW, you only want to speak of IMMIGRATION and not ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
    You misunderstood. Try rereading. I addressed illegal immigration specifically and repeatedly.

    With right-wingers, it's often hard to tell whether you're dealing with a real person or a poorly programmed bot, since so many actual humans on the right are incapable of passing a Turing Test. Basically, they scan for keywords and then post standard talking points based on the keyword, with no attention to whether their talking points are actually responsive. Thus, if someone posts something about immigration, these NPC conservatives will reflexively post standard talking points saying that the person can't tell the difference between legal immigration and illegal immigration -- never mind if the person's post actually specifically talked about a preference for the legal kind. How can one tell the difference between a poorly programmed chatbot and a poorly educated wingnut?

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