Anthropogenic climate change-more conclusions of real scientists

[Micawber]

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6399/eaas8806

More proof of Anthropogenic climate change published in the preeminent scientific journal in the world.

Structured Abstract
INTRODUCTION
Fingerprint studies use pattern information to separate human and natural influences on climate. Most fingerprint research relies on patterns of climate change that are averaged over years or decades. Few studies probe shorter time scales. We consider here whether human influences are identifiable in the changing seasonal cycle. We focus on Earth’s troposphere, which extends from the surface to roughly 16 km at the tropics and 13 km at the poles. Our interest is in TAC, the geographical pattern of the amplitude of the annual cycle of tropospheric temperature. Information on how TAC has changed over time is available from satellite retrievals and from large multimodel ensembles of simulations.

RATIONALE
At least three lines of evidence suggest that human activities have affected the seasonal cycle. First, there are seasonal signals in certain human-caused external forcings, such as stratospheric ozone depletion and particulate pollution. Second, there is seasonality in some of the climate feedbacks triggered by external forcings. Third, there are widespread signals of seasonal changes in the distributions and abundances of plant and animal species. These biological signals are in part mediated by seasonal climate changes arising from global warming. All three lines of evidence provide scientific justification for performing fingerprint studies with the seasonal cycle.

RESULTS
The simulated response of the seasonal cycle to historical changes in human and natural factors has prominent mid-latitude increases in the amplitude of TAC. These features arise from larger mid-latitude warming in the summer hemisphere, which appears to be partly attributable to continental drying. Because of land-ocean differences in heat capacity and hemispheric asymmetry in land fraction, mid-latitude increases in TAC are greater in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Qualitatively similar large-scale patterns of annual cycle change occur in satellite tropospheric temperature data.

We applied a standard fingerprint method to determine (i) whether the pattern similarity between the model “human influence” fingerprint and satellite temperature data increases with time, and (ii) whether such an increase is significant relative to random changes in similarity between the fingerprint and patterns of natural internal variability. This method yields signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios as a function of increasing satellite record length. Fingerprint detection occurs when S/N exceeds and remains above the 1% significance threshold.

We find that the model fingerprint of externally forced seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. In these five datasets, S/N ratios for the 38-year satellite record vary from 2.7 to 5.8. Our positive fingerprint detection results are unaffected by the removal of all global mean information and by the exclusion of sea ice regions. On time scales for which meaningful tests are possible (one to two decades), there is no evidence that S/N ratios are spuriously inflated by a systematic model underestimate of the amplitude of observed tropospheric temperature variability.

CONCLUSION
Our results suggest that attribution studies with the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature provide powerful and novel evidence for a statistically significant human effect on Earth’s climate. We hope that this finding will stimulate more detailed exploration of the seasonal signals caused by anthropogenic forcing.

[Sailor]

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6399/eaas8806

More proof of Anthropogenic climate change published in the preeminent scientific journal in the world.

Structured Abstract
INTRODUCTION
Fingerprint studies use pattern information to separate human and natural influences on climate. Most fingerprint research relies on patterns of climate change that are averaged over years or decades. Few studies probe shorter time scales. We consider here whether human influences are identifiable in the changing seasonal cycle. We focus on Earth’s troposphere, which extends from the surface to roughly 16 km at the tropics and 13 km at the poles. Our interest is in TAC, the geographical pattern of the amplitude of the annual cycle of tropospheric temperature. Information on how TAC has changed over time is available from satellite retrievals and from large multimodel ensembles of simulations.

RATIONALE
At least three lines of evidence suggest that human activities have affected the seasonal cycle. First, there are seasonal signals in certain human-caused external forcings, such as stratospheric ozone depletion and particulate pollution. Second, there is seasonality in some of the climate feedbacks triggered by external forcings. Third, there are widespread signals of seasonal changes in the distributions and abundances of plant and animal species. These biological signals are in part mediated by seasonal climate changes arising from global warming. All three lines of evidence provide scientific justification for performing fingerprint studies with the seasonal cycle.

RESULTS
The simulated response of the seasonal cycle to historical changes in human and natural factors has prominent mid-latitude increases in the amplitude of TAC. These features arise from larger mid-latitude warming in the summer hemisphere, which appears to be partly attributable to continental drying. Because of land-ocean differences in heat capacity and hemispheric asymmetry in land fraction, mid-latitude increases in TAC are greater in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Qualitatively similar large-scale patterns of annual cycle change occur in satellite tropospheric temperature data.

We applied a standard fingerprint method to determine (i) whether the pattern similarity between the model “human influence” fingerprint and satellite temperature data increases with time, and (ii) whether such an increase is significant relative to random changes in similarity between the fingerprint and patterns of natural internal variability. This method yields signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios as a function of increasing satellite record length. Fingerprint detection occurs when S/N exceeds and remains above the 1% significance threshold.

We find that the model fingerprint of externally forced seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. In these five datasets, S/N ratios for the 38-year satellite record vary from 2.7 to 5.8. Our positive fingerprint detection results are unaffected by the removal of all global mean information and by the exclusion of sea ice regions. On time scales for which meaningful tests are possible (one to two decades), there is no evidence that S/N ratios are spuriously inflated by a systematic model underestimate of the amplitude of observed tropospheric temperature variability.

CONCLUSION
Our results suggest that attribution studies with the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature provide powerful and novel evidence for a statistically significant human effect on Earth’s climate. We hope that this finding will stimulate more detailed exploration of the seasonal signals caused by anthropogenic forcing.

How about you post the entire article along with the Figures & Data, Info & Metrics? Anyone can copy and paste an abstract. Lets see the whole thing.

[Nomad]

How about you post the entire article along with the Figures & Data, Info & Metrics? Anyone can copy and paste an abstract. Lets see the whole thing.

Why don't you open the link he provided, then open an account with Science magazine which will in turn, provide you with access to the full article, including hard data?

Or are you just not interested enough in finding out about such "inconvenient truths" to expend the time and effort?

[Sailor]

Why don't you open the link he provided, then open an account with Science magazine which will provide you with access to the full article, including hard data?

Or are you just not interested enough in finding out about such "inconvenient truths" to expend the time and effort?

Well, I would have figured that he actually read it. Had an account. Spend some money. You know, actually had a clue what the entire article was about other than the abstract. Other than that, no, I really do not care that much about it.

[CFM]

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6399/eaas8806

More proof of Anthropogenic climate change published in the preeminent scientific journal in the world.

Structured Abstract
INTRODUCTION
Fingerprint studies use pattern information to separate human and natural influences on climate. Most fingerprint research relies on patterns of climate change that are averaged over years or decades. Few studies probe shorter time scales. We consider here whether human influences are identifiable in the changing seasonal cycle. We focus on Earth’s troposphere, which extends from the surface to roughly 16 km at the tropics and 13 km at the poles. Our interest is in TAC, the geographical pattern of the amplitude of the annual cycle of tropospheric temperature. Information on how TAC has changed over time is available from satellite retrievals and from large multimodel ensembles of simulations.

RATIONALE
At least three lines of evidence suggest that human activities have affected the seasonal cycle. First, there are seasonal signals in certain human-caused external forcings, such as stratospheric ozone depletion and particulate pollution. Second, there is seasonality in some of the climate feedbacks triggered by external forcings. Third, there are widespread signals of seasonal changes in the distributions and abundances of plant and animal species. These biological signals are in part mediated by seasonal climate changes arising from global warming. All three lines of evidence provide scientific justification for performing fingerprint studies with the seasonal cycle.

RESULTS
The simulated response of the seasonal cycle to historical changes in human and natural factors has prominent mid-latitude increases in the amplitude of TAC. These features arise from larger mid-latitude warming in the summer hemisphere, which appears to be partly attributable to continental drying. Because of land-ocean differences in heat capacity and hemispheric asymmetry in land fraction, mid-latitude increases in TAC are greater in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Qualitatively similar large-scale patterns of annual cycle change occur in satellite tropospheric temperature data.

We applied a standard fingerprint method to determine (i) whether the pattern similarity between the model “human influence” fingerprint and satellite temperature data increases with time, and (ii) whether such an increase is significant relative to random changes in similarity between the fingerprint and patterns of natural internal variability. This method yields signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios as a function of increasing satellite record length. Fingerprint detection occurs when S/N exceeds and remains above the 1% significance threshold.

We find that the model fingerprint of externally forced seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. In these five datasets, S/N ratios for the 38-year satellite record vary from 2.7 to 5.8. Our positive fingerprint detection results are unaffected by the removal of all global mean information and by the exclusion of sea ice regions. On time scales for which meaningful tests are possible (one to two decades), there is no evidence that S/N ratios are spuriously inflated by a systematic model underestimate of the amplitude of observed tropospheric temperature variability.

CONCLUSION
Our results suggest that attribution studies with the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature provide powerful and novel evidence for a statistically significant human effect on Earth’s climate. We hope that this finding will stimulate more detailed exploration of the seasonal signals caused by anthropogenic forcing.

Let's see. You consider real scientist those that say what you agree with and want to hear. Got it.

[Nomad]

[Nomad]

Well, I would have figured that he actually read it. Had an account. Spend some money. You know, actually had a clue what the entire article was about other than the abstract. Other than that, no, I really do not care that much about it.

No surprise.

We all know how you rwnjs hate and avoid the truth at all costs.

[ThatOwlWoman]

[Sailor]

No surprise.

We all know how you rwnjs hate and avoid the truth at all costs.

Of course it is no surprise. Most of you on the loony left link to things you never read. That is the reason you always get your ass handed to you with your own links and stupidity. Thanks for agreeing.

[Nomad]

Of course it is no surprise. Most of you on the loony left link to things you never read. That is the reason you always get your ass handed to you with your own links and stupidity. Thanks for agreeing.

Show us one example of you or any of your fellow knuckledraggers handing anyone's ass to them.

Something I'd like to see, because we all know it's never happened.

Though that doesn't stop you from lying about it, does it?

Like I said, you suckfucks hate and avoid the truth.

[ThatOwlWoman]

Of course it is no surprise. Most of you on the loony left link to things you never read. That is the reason you always get your ass handed to you with your own links and stupidity. Thanks for agreeing.

I am curious. You are an intelligent, world-traveled, well-read member of the right side of the aisle. Plus your career involves you being experienced and observant of both weather and climate, the condition of the planet's oceans, and changes in various seaports as climate change accelerates.... not to mention the changes in the world's fisheries.

What is your objection to acknowledging that climate change is occurring? Or do you have an objection?

[Nomad]

I am curious. You are an intelligent, world-traveled, well-read member of the right side of the aisle. Plus your career involves you being experienced and observant of both weather and climate, the condition of the planet's oceans, and changes in various seaports as climate change accelerates.... not to mention the changes in the world's fisheries.

What is your objection to acknowledging that climate change is occurring? Or do you have an objection?

He couldn't give a shit because none of that stuff about him is true.

He's a drunk who scrapes barnacles off of boat hulls for beer money.

[Centerleftfl]

Of course it is no surprise. Most of you on the loony left link to things you never read. That is the reason you always get your ass handed to you with your own links and stupidity. Thanks for agreeing.

I wonder if GEICO knows or gives a rats ass if GOD or MAN is causing hurricanes in my state. They keep raising rates.

We are so past CAUSE. WE ARE THERE. It's like arguing as you stand in the ashes whether it was the match or the cigarette you didn't put out that burned your house down.

[Sailor]

I wonder if GEICO knows or gives a rats ass if GOD or MAN is causing hurricanes in my state. They keep raising rates.

We are so past CAUSE. WE ARE THERE. It's like arguing as you stand in the ashes whether it was the match or the cigarette you didn't put out that burned your house down.

I can see you, as well as many others here, have never read my thoughts about climate change. Just like how many others post things without reading them. Sad really.

[Sailor]

He couldn't give a shit because none of that stuff about him is true.

He's a drunk who scrapes barnacles off of boat hulls for beer money.

You poor sad little hillbilly. Still desperately trying to become significant. And still failing.