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Thread: How the Battle for the House Is Shaping Up

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    Default How the Battle for the House Is Shaping Up

    If you had asked me six months ago who I thought would win control of the House of Representatives in 2018, I wouldn’t have hesitated before answering, “It’s early, but Democrats are heavily favored, although conventional wisdom has been very slow to catch up.” With a raft of GOP retirements in highly vulnerable open seats, a president with job approval ratings in the 30s, and a generic ballot lead for Democrats in the double digits, it was increasingly difficult to spell out a path to victory for Republicans. In fact, things were bad enough that it appeared their losses could grow into the 40 or even 50 seat range.

    Things have changed. If the election were held today, it’s not clear who would hold the chamber. I might put a thumb on the scale for Republicans, but right now – and it is still early – the House is likely to be close. Once again, conventional wisdom seems slow to catch up, with analysts still discussing the toxic environment for Republicans. There are three things to consider:

    1. Trump’s job approval has increased.

    I’ve long taken the stance that elections are fundamentally referenda on the party in power, and specifically on the performance of the president. Other factors, such as exposure and the economy play a role, but the correlation between presidential job approval and electoral outcomes is undeniable.

    Trump’s job approval hit a low of 37 percent in the RCP Average in mid-December, but since then has gradually improved. As of this writing, it stands at 44 percent, which is roughly where it was before Trump fired FBI Director James Comey.

    There are a variety of potential reasons for this – the passage of the tax cut rallied Republicans, people are tiring of the Mueller investigation and increasingly of the opinion that it is politicized, and the good economic news is breaking through. The diplomacy with North Korea, even if it fails, contradicts the image of Trump as an irrational warmonger. Regardless of the reasons, his fortunes have clearly improved, and if you agree that elections are referenda, then we would expect them to raise all boats.

    2. The generic ballot has moved.

    Thus, it is no great surprise that GOP numbers on the so-called generic ballot, which asks some variant of whether people plan to vote for Republicans or Democrats in the next congressional election, have likewise improved. The generic ballot is an imperfect metric, but it is a decent gauge of where the mood of the country is. In mid-December, the Democrats’ lead was around 13 points. Today it stands at just three points.

    This is a problem for Democrats, because to overcome GOP gerrymandering (which, in fairness, has been whittled away by court decisions to a large extent), the clustering of Democratic partisans and the Republican incumbency advantage, many expect that Democrats would have to win the popular vote by five to seven points. I think this overstates the case, but a three-point popular vote win would probably result in a very narrowly divided House in 2019.

    3. Special elections are an unproven metric.

    Finally, some point to the Democrats’ performance in special elections as a sign that their voters are energized. This is undoubtedly true. I pointed to a similar phenomenon in late 2013, so I do think special election outcomes are interesting.

    But there are three problems here. I did not make specific projections from these in 2013, because we don’t have a lot of experience projecting a midterm election from special election results. These are informative datapoints, but until we have more experience seeing how models based upon them perform, we should prefer established metrics like job approval and the generic ballot.

    Second, these special elections all involve open seats. The one set of elections that did not involve open seats exclusively – in Virginia and New Jersey – brought about a set of results that are a lot less encouraging for Democrats. They won in “Hillary districts” and lost “Trump districts.” If this is replicated in 2018, Democrats would fall just shy of winning the House.

    Finally, many of those elections took place when the president’s job approval was at sub-40 levels. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Democrats’ margin has narrowed as the Republicans’ position has improved. If the president’s job approval on Election Day (or, as some suggest, in early summer) is what drives election outcomes, using the average special election outcome will result in a lowball estimate of where we end up come November. Again, we should not dismiss these data. But until we have more experience using them, we are better off relying upon tried-and-true techniques.

    Can we say with certainty how the Battle for the House will play out? Absolutely not. Six months is several lifetimes in politics. But there is little doubt that the Republicans’ chances have improved over the past five months, perhaps dramatically so. That is noteworthy, and the CW should adjust accordingly.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...up_137112.html

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    decent analysis...of course events will change this ..but here is where we are

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    Quote Originally Posted by noise View Post
    decent analysis...of course events will change this ..but here is where we are
    That's where you wish we were ..

    Here is where we are ..

    The 2018 House playing field continues to go downhill for Republicans
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/06/polit...018/index.html

    ‘When gerrymandering backfires’: Democrats go after once-safe GOP seats
    Republican redistricting maximized GOP gains in past years, but it could exacerbate the party’s losses in 2018.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...e-seats-579890

    Republicans could lose 50 seats or more in 2018..

    So much for the Trump Party.
    AMERICAN HISTORY ITSELF IS A TESTAMENT TO THE STRENGTH AND RESILIENCE OF AFRICAN PEOPLE. WE, ALONG WITH THE COURGE AND SACRIFICES OF CONSCIOUS WHITE AMERICANS, LIKE VIOLA LIUZZO, EVERETT DIRKSEN, AND MANY OTHERS, HAVE FOUGHT AND DIED TOGETHER FOR OUR FREEDOM, AND FOR OUR SURVIVAL.

    In America, rights are are not determined by what is just, fair, equitable, honest, nor by what Jesus would do. Rights are determined ONLY by what you can DEMAND.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackascoal View Post
    That's where you wish we were ..

    Here is where we are ..

    The 2018 House playing field continues to go downhill for Republicans
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/06/polit...018/index.html

    ‘When gerrymandering backfires’: Democrats go after once-safe GOP seats
    Republican redistricting maximized GOP gains in past years, but it could exacerbate the party’s losses in 2018.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...e-seats-579890

    Republicans could lose 50 seats or more in 2018..

    So much for the Trump Party.
    no way 50 seats..that would be a monstrous wave, and the numbers aren't there.
    "all politics are local"of course, and PA redistricting prolly adds 4 Dem seats.

    But the trending is away from a wave. Trump's popularity is picking up. Results are in doubt either way
    I don't know how you were diverted / You were perverted too
    I don't know how you were inverted / No one alerted you

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    Quote Originally Posted by noise View Post
    decent analysis...of course events will change this ..but here is where we are
    Having faith in polls on elections six months out is risky, six months is an eternity in politics, one big event and it all changes

    For conversation sake, the GOP will gain five to six seats in the Senate, the Democrats are defending 24 seats, ten in Red States Trump won easily, statistically it is against the Democrats

    And I think the GOP will keep the House, barely, Congressional races are just as much local as national, the incumbent may be totally incompetent, as many are, but showing up at the opening day of the Little Leagues often has as much influence as the view on national events.

    Trump, as long he doesn't step in it which might be nearly impossible, won't be as big a factor either way as many believe, and the blue wave will be small one

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    Don't bother voting. The repubs are a lock. No way they can lose.

  7. The Following User Groans At Nordberg For This Awful Post:

    Bigdog (05-25-2018)

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    just a question. How come no one uses the right track/ wrong track poll as an indicator?
    is on twitter @realtsuke

    https://tsukesthoughts.wordpress.com/

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    Quote Originally Posted by noise View Post
    no way 50 seats..that would be a monstrous wave, and the numbers aren't there.
    "all politics are local"of course, and PA redistricting prolly adds 4 Dem seats.

    But the trending is away from a wave. Trump's popularity is picking up. Results are in doubt either way
    The numbers are decidedly there my friend. It's the elephant in the room that Trump supporters have been ignoring since his election, and instead of trying to court more to their side, they've been alienating more people than they attract.

    People don't just don't like Donald Trump, they hate him.

    He's the embodiment all the 7 deadliest sins .. NONE of the 7 virtues.
    AMERICAN HISTORY ITSELF IS A TESTAMENT TO THE STRENGTH AND RESILIENCE OF AFRICAN PEOPLE. WE, ALONG WITH THE COURGE AND SACRIFICES OF CONSCIOUS WHITE AMERICANS, LIKE VIOLA LIUZZO, EVERETT DIRKSEN, AND MANY OTHERS, HAVE FOUGHT AND DIED TOGETHER FOR OUR FREEDOM, AND FOR OUR SURVIVAL.

    In America, rights are are not determined by what is just, fair, equitable, honest, nor by what Jesus would do. Rights are determined ONLY by what you can DEMAND.

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    The futile hopes of the Republicans remind me of our neutered male tabby trying to get it on with my fluffy house slipper.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackascoal View Post
    That's where you wish we were ..

    Here is where we are ..

    The 2018 House playing field continues to go downhill for Republicans
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/06/polit...018/index.html

    ‘When gerrymandering backfires’: Democrats go after once-safe GOP seats
    Republican redistricting maximized GOP gains in past years, but it could exacerbate the party’s losses in 2018.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...e-seats-579890

    Republicans could lose 50 seats or more in 2018..

    So much for the Trump Party.
    a delusional ole black man, does it get any sadder

    You, Morgan Freeman and Bill Cosby, only difference is you wont be going to prison, or maybe you have already
    This just In::: Trump indicted for living in liberals heads and not paying RENT

    C̶N̶N̶ SNN.... Shithole News Network

    Trump Is Coming back to a White House Near you

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    Democrats have rarely felt this confident about a midterm.

    The analysis of the OP omits how insanely good their candidate recruitment has been. Off the charts, and it shows in the quality of the candidates they've been fielding and will field in November - much to the benefit of both sides. I wish there were stronger candidates for both parties, always.

    Americans also don't like one-party rule, just traditionally. I'd be shocked if Dems don't take the House.

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    Having faith in polls on elections six months out is risky, six months is an eternity in politics, one big event and it all changes

    For conversation sake, the GOP will gain five to six seats in the Senate, the Democrats are defending 24 seats, ten in Red States Trump won easily, statistically it is against the Democrats

    And I think the GOP will keep the House, barely, Congressional races are just as much local as national, the incumbent may be totally incompetent, as many are, but showing up at the opening day of the Little Leagues often has as much influence as the view on national events.

    Trump, as long he doesn't step in it which might be nearly impossible, won't be as big a factor either way as many believe, and the blue wave will be small one
    I agree archives..polls are meaningless, but still the trendlines are important

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackascoal View Post
    The numbers are decidedly there my friend. It's the elephant in the room that Trump supporters have been ignoring since his election, and instead of trying to court more to their side, they've been alienating more people than they attract.

    People don't just don't like Donald Trump, they hate him.

    He's the embodiment all the 7 deadliest sins .. NONE of the 7 virtues.
    look at RCP's trendlines.
    He's up to 44% approval.

    dems do a fantastic job of alienating non-progs. They are an insane political party; fully infected w/TDS

    "partisanship is a mindfuck"

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