Reply With QuoteShe's hurting.
Verified User
Dem Delegate Counter on CNN
If you look at this right here http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/...ter/index.html and play with it so that every state and all the Super D's are evenly split, not something likely to happen, Obama wins.
Just for worst-case scenario, I figured that PA went to Clinton, waaaay bad with a 96-62 split for her, but then the following states (which the Clinton campaign has already washed their hands of, at least for now) went as follows:
Guam 1-3 for Obama, based on other territories where he won 75%
Indiana 30-42 for Obama, based on proximity to Illinois
North Carolina 31-84 for Obama, based on South Carolina Virginia and Georgia
W. VA 14-14 split, based on...who knows ???
Kentucky 37-14 for Clinton, based on how Tenn went
Oregon 18-34 for Obama, based on WA and also being a caucus
Montana 4-12 for Obama, based on how well Obama has done in Idaho Wyoming and North Dakota
S. Dakota 3-12 for Obama, se above
Puerto Rico 28-27 split between the two, mostly for same reason as W. VA
That then leaves the 351 uncommited SuperDelegates. Just to be really pessimistic, I figured let's say that they break 2:1 for Clinton. Granted they are almost an even split now, but let's be really pessimistic. That gives Clinton 236 and Obama 115.
According to this nifty tool, that puts Obama at 2,030 and gives him the nomination, while Clinton still trails at 1,978, by roughly 50 votes.
Junior Member
She's hurting.
The Almighty
I think your overall numbers are probably pretty close.... but I think you Hillary with too big a lead in PA, Obama with WAY to big a lead in NC and OR... and Hillary with way to big a lead in the Supers.Originally Posted by Socrtease
I used it and got Obama at 2057 and Hillary at 1951.
She would have to "steal" it with the supers to win at this point.
Quote from Cypress:
"Scientists don't use "averages". Maybe armchair supertools on message boards ascribe some meaning to "averages" between two random data points. And maybe clueless amatuers "draw a straight line" through two random end data points to define a "trend". Experts don't.
They use mean annual and five year means in trend analysis. Don't tell me I have to explain the difference to you. "
911 EVERY DAY
Let's say Hillary wins or ties every primary next time around:
Penn: 96-62 to Hillary
Guam: 2-2 tie
Indiana: 37-35 Hillary
North Carolina: 63-52 Hillary
WV: 15-13 Hillary
Kentucky: 37-14 Hillary
Oregon: 25-27 Hillary
Montana: 9-7 Hillary
SD: 8-7 Hillary
Puerto Rico: 32-23 Hillary
I'm being a little bit more modest in my SD's than Soc, but let's say they split 199-152 Hillary.
That gives Hillary 2003, and Obama 2005
"Do not think that I came to bring peace... I did not come to bring peace, but a sword." - Matthew 10:34
Villified User
I hope Obama picks Edwards for his VP slot.
The Almighty
In that case... Edwards delegates decide the nomination. That would be really fun.... I hope yours happens.
Quote from Cypress:
"Scientists don't use "averages". Maybe armchair supertools on message boards ascribe some meaning to "averages" between two random data points. And maybe clueless amatuers "draw a straight line" through two random end data points to define a "trend". Experts don't.
They use mean annual and five year means in trend analysis. Don't tell me I have to explain the difference to you. "
The Almighty
Doubtful. He needs someone with foreign policy experience... Edwards has none.
I think he goes with Biden. Maybe an outside chance for Richardson/Clark. Very slim dark horse chance for Webb.
Quote from Cypress:
"Scientists don't use "averages". Maybe armchair supertools on message boards ascribe some meaning to "averages" between two random data points. And maybe clueless amatuers "draw a straight line" through two random end data points to define a "trend". Experts don't.
They use mean annual and five year means in trend analysis. Don't tell me I have to explain the difference to you. "
Verified User
I don't think the party will want him to pick webb. He's only been in office 2 years and I don't know that Va is safe enough to remove a stable dem seat. I think it will be richardson or Biden
The Almighty
I agree.... which is why I only gave him a slim dark horse chance....
Quote from Cypress:
"Scientists don't use "averages". Maybe armchair supertools on message boards ascribe some meaning to "averages" between two random data points. And maybe clueless amatuers "draw a straight line" through two random end data points to define a "trend". Experts don't.
They use mean annual and five year means in trend analysis. Don't tell me I have to explain the difference to you. "
911 EVERY DAY
Webb is definitely unstable and I have doubts about whether he can keep the seat in 4 years.
"Do not think that I came to bring peace... I did not come to bring peace, but a sword." - Matthew 10:34
Christian Socialist Party
Me too!
Geroge W. Bush is a false Christian, yet became a 2 term president. Mike Huckubee is a true Christian, yet has been ignored.
Jesus was a Socialist, therefore, so am I!
Abreast of the situations
i herd thru the grape vine that if Hillary's plan to seize power is failing and the Florida and Michigan scams dont work... shes looking to have Puerto Rico change there vote to a winner takes all delegates contest.
i know the clinton campaign has already had them change there contest from a caucus to a primary and moved the date up 5 days..
Last edited by Chapdog; 03-13-2008 at 06:27 AM.
Insane Level of Addiction
JPP Contributor
It will be Obama. The question is if she will hurt him enough to cost Americans an Obama presidency, and force us to live with four more years of Bush/Cheney/McCain!
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
Villified User
Will Cheny pick Condalizard as his VP to get black and womens vote ?
I doubt it, but the darn repubs are panicky.
New Nicotine Free Version
JPP Staff
If there is real doubt of that they might pick him so that it does not appear that he loses elections.
Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but rather we have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.
- -- Aristotle
Believe nothing on the faith of traditions, even though they have been held in honor for many generations and in diverse places. Do not believe a thing because many people speak of it. Do not believe on the faith of the sages of the past. Do not believe what you yourself have imagined, persuading yourself that a God inspires you. Believe nothing on the sole authority of your masters and priests. After examination, believe what you yourself have tested and found to be reasonable, and conform your conduct thereto.
- -- The Buddha
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.
- -- Aristotle
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