WHAT HAPPENED, WHAT IT MEANS

**Chapdog** · 03-05-2008, 11:20 AM

Here's some keys to what really happened last night, and what it means:

* Clinton(s) not nearly the winner either side assumes her to be. Hillary won a max of circa 20 (!) delegates on Tuesday, which means the delegate math remains the same, with Obama way ahead. The scenario whereby she catches and surpasses him in delegates is the stuff of science fiction: she wins all remaining primaries/caucuses/delegates with circa 70% of the vote, PLUS the Dem Party holds do-overs of both the Florida and Michigan primaries which, again, Clinton wins with 70%, PLUS she steals from Obama most of the SuperDelegates. Paging Stephen King.

* Biggest Winner: Juan McCain! Not only did McCain become the nominee by capturing the nomination delegates and booting Nutabee from the race, he gets at least Two More Months of a bloody fight between his Democrat adversaries. A dream scenario for him.

* Negative Works! Clinton's attacks v. Obama (esp the "White House Hotline Red Phone Ringing at 3:00a" TV spot) worked; the media's first experiment with abandoning their hideous double standard (so grotesque the media have twice been mocked by Saturday Night Live), and actually treating Obama like they do other candidates, worked. His numbers went down. Negative works ergo, we shall see a lot more negative, from both sides.

* Obama Must Fight Back: Yes, I know he is a religious figure, above mere mortal politics...but if Saint Barack continues to refuse to dirty His hands by punching back, he will be in trouble - not just because Clinton(s) will sense the weakness and slaughter him, but because MCCAIN AND THE REPUBLICANS will sense his weakness and slaughter him.

* Obama/Clinton Ticket: the continuing blood oath/battle between Obama and Clinton will greatly fuel pressure by party leaders on both democrats to accept the second place on the ticket, to forge the Dem Dream Ticket.
With thanks to Nelson Rockefeller: Hillary Clinton has never aspired to be VICE-President of Anything.

* Nuclear Groundhog Day: Tuesday's results mean a minimum of SEVEN MORE WEEKS (!!!) of nuclear/negative/attack politics Groundhog Day. And at the end of those 7 weeks, Clinton(s) likely will still lose - but not before crippling Obama with two months of bombs, dirt, and all-out attack.

* Talk Radio Valhalla: What might have been a merely exciting primary season that ended on SuerTuesday has morphed wildly into a bloody free-for-all with both sides sworn to destroy the other.

**LadyT** · 03-05-2008, 11:28 AM

* Nuclear Groundhog Day: Tuesday's results mean a minimum of SEVEN MORE WEEKS (!!!) of nuclear/negative/attack politics Groundhog Day. And at the end of those 7 weeks, Clinton(s) likely will still lose - but not before crippling Obama with two months of bombs, dirt, and all-out attack.

I think others on this board have nailed it. She wants to leave teh door open for her to have a 2012 bid at the presidency and I don't think cares one bit about anything else.

**Chapdog** · 03-05-2008, 12:44 PM

did you think she every cared about anything more then becoming powerful?

**Jarod** · 03-05-2008, 12:58 PM

Originally Posted by LadyT

* Nuclear Groundhog Day: Tuesday's results mean a minimum of SEVEN MORE WEEKS (!!!) of nuclear/negative/attack politics Groundhog Day. And at the end of those 7 weeks, Clinton(s) likely will still lose - but not before crippling Obama with two months of bombs, dirt, and all-out attack.

I think others on this board have nailed it. She wants to leave teh door open for her to have a 2012 bid at the presidency and I don't think cares one bit about anything else.

If she takes the VP spot it means her calculis tells her that Obama is going to win. She would not risk becoming another John Edwards.

The only reason she would take VP would be to "hold her spot". Clinton is young and seems sure this is her best shot, otherwise she would sit out another four years like she did last time. Last time her calculis told her Kerry would loose, this time it tells her the Democrat will win.

**Cypress** · 03-05-2008, 01:04 PM

I suck at predictions and analyzing the horse race. But, I still see Obama being the nominee, and I see Clinton backing off before the convention. I don't see a disaster in the making, but I could be wrong about that. Others have made some points that seem pretty valid. Maybe this will blow up in the Dems faces. I don't know.

**LadyT** · 03-05-2008, 01:05 PM

Originally Posted by Cypress

I suck at predictions and analyzing the horse race. But, I still see Obama being the nominee, and I see Clinton backing off before the convention. I don't see a disaster in the making, but I could be wrong about that. Others have made some points that seem pretty valid. Maybe this will blow up in the Dems faces. I don't know.

LOL, I see you've taken a much humbler approach to predictions this year!

**Cypress** · 03-05-2008, 01:06 PM

Originally Posted by LadyT

LOL, I see you've taken a much humbler approach to predictions this year!

My predictions suck!

**Onceler** · 03-05-2008, 01:08 PM

Originally Posted by Cypress

I suck at predictions and analyzing the horse race. But, I still see Obama being the nominee, and I see Clinton backing off before the convention. I don't see a disaster in the making, but I could be wrong about that. Others have made some points that seem pretty valid. Maybe this will blow up in the Dems faces. I don't know.

It kinda comes down to PA. Hillary has her states, and Obama has his. The only thing that might make her consider dropping out is losing PA.

Otherwise, it's a fight to the convention, just like '84, and we get to look at a big red map in November.

**Cypress** · 03-05-2008, 01:43 PM

Originally Posted by Onceler

It kinda comes down to PA. Hillary has her states, and Obama has his. The only thing that might make her consider dropping out is losing PA.

Otherwise, it's a fight to the convention, just like '84, and we get to look at a big red map in November.

I hope you're wrong. Admittedly, I'm kind of a hopeless optimist (must be the sunny california weather

), and I haven't exactly been wringing my hands over this primary. I kind of assumed that a contested primary would make obama a better candidate, and would help the Dems in other operational ways. But, maybe I'm naive.

**uscitizen** · 03-05-2008, 02:12 PM

It doesn't mean anything.
Yet.

**Minister of Truth** · 03-05-2008, 02:16 PM

Originally Posted by Onceler

It kinda comes down to PA. Hillary has her states, and Obama has his. The only thing that might make her consider dropping out is losing PA.

Otherwise, it's a fight to the convention, just like '84, and we get to look at a big red map in November.

Except back then, it was a big blue map. Some colorblind ignoramuses came along since then and mixed the colors around. Red sux. Gimme the blue of Reagan, Ike, Coolidge, TR and Lincoln...

**blackascoal** · 03-05-2008, 02:22 PM

IF somehow Clinton manages to be the nominee, she will have to have Obama on the ticket to soothe tensions within the Democratic Party and attempt to overcome the Hillary haters .. which now includes me.

She needs Obama on the ticket .. he does not need her.

**LadyT** · 03-05-2008, 02:24 PM

Originally Posted by blackascoal

IF somehow Clinton manages to be the nominee, she will have to have Obama on the ticket to soothe tensions within the Democratic Party and attempt to overcome the Hillary haters .. which now includes me.

She needs Obama on the ticket .. he does not need her.

QFT

**Chapdog** · 03-05-2008, 02:55 PM

obama will be spoiled if he goes as vp for Clinton. In that case he should wait till 2016 to run.

hes only mid 40's now.

**Annie** · 03-05-2008, 04:33 PM

Hillary has won the 'big states' for delegates, necessary in the General Election. She made serious inroads last night in the argument that she should have the superdelegates on her side.