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Thread: New reason to believe the GOP can hold the House.

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    Default New reason to believe the GOP can hold the House.

    The Republican tax cut is resulting in tangible benefits for workers more quickly than even many of its supporters expected. Bolstering an already-improving U.S. economy, it is starting to exert an equally powerful influence on U.S. politics.

    To be sure, President Donald Trump still suffers from low approval ratings. “Based on approval ratings one year into a first term, Trump is the most unpopular president since at least Harry Truman, ” notes Harry Enten of the website FiveThirtyEight today. But there are interesting trends in political polling data. Mr. Enten explains:

    The anniversary of President Trump’s inauguration is Saturday, and he is ending his first year on an upswing. The FiveThirtyEight Trump job approval tracker puts his approval rating at about 40 percent — matching its high-water mark since his first few months in office. His disapproval rating is 55 percent. That’s not good, but it has markedly improved over the past few weeks.

    Trump’s rise mirrors GOP fortunes on the generic congressional ballot, which now has the Democrats’ lead down to 8 percentage points. Again, that’s not a good number for Republicans, but it is greatly improved.


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    And the improvement has been rapid. RealClearPolitics pegs the current Democratic advantage at 8.5 points, but that’s down from a 13-point edge as recently as late December.

    A New York Times report this week suggests more room for GOP improvement in public opinion surveys:

    The tax overhaul that Mr. Trump signed into law just before Christmas remains relatively unpopular and highly polarizing, according to a new poll conducted for The New York Times by SurveyMonkey. But support for the law has grown significantly over the past month, and more Americans believe that they will receive a tax cut. Forty-six percent of Americans strongly or somewhat approved of the law in early January, up from 37 percent when the bill was nearing passage in December.

    The reason there is more room for improvement in Republican political fortunes is that according to the Times, most survey respondents still don’t believe they’re getting a tax cut. In fact, almost all of them are. As this reality becomes manifest in paychecks this winter, there’s no reason to think the signature Republican legislative achievement of the 115th Congress won’t become even more popular.

    As for the President who signed that legislation into law, ratings on a critical question are already on the rise. Mr. Trump remains underwater on the general question of his handling of the presidency, with a majority in virtually every poll expressing disapproval. But he is showing increasing strength on the issue of the economy, which just happens to be the issue that frequently decides elections.

    This week, the Economist/YouGov survey shows him ten points above water, with 49% approving of his handling of the economy compared to only 39% who disapprove. Meanwhile the latest Harvard/Harris poll, released today, also shows a Trump bump on this issue despite general voter disapproval of his job performance:

    Despite an uptick in optimism over the economy, the President’s approval has only marginally improved, continuing to hover on the lower end of the range at 42% job approval and 58% disapproval. However, in January the President received his highest rating for stimulating jobs and handling the economy, both at 54% approval.

    By passing pro-growth tax reform, Republicans have given themselves more than a puncher’s chance of holding their congressional majorities. This will require bucking history, which usually shows a rough year for the President’s party in the first mid-term of his presidency. For example, in 1982, during President Ronald Reagan’s second year in office, Republicans lost 26 seats in the House. In 1994, Bill Clinton watched his Democratic colleagues lose 52 House seats. In 2010, during year two of Barack Obama’s tenure, the Democrats lost 63 seats.

    Why should 2018 be any different? When lawmakers enacted the Reagan tax cuts in 1981, Republicans blundered by agreeing to delay the implementation of many provisions. Without the immediate pro-growth boost, the U.S. economy shrank by nearly 2% in 1982 and voters registered their displeasure. In 1994 and 2010, voters were angry over government attempts (successful in 2010) to exert greater control over their health care. The current GOP majority hasn’t made such mistakes. Pro-growth policy, taking immediate effect, is becoming more popular.

    Today the Federal Reserve Bank of New York affirmed its estimate of 3.9% economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year, and is now forecasting another quarter above 3% in the first three months of 2018. That’s a good economic environment in any era, and a stark contrast to the slow growth of the Obama years. Game on.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-rep...le_email_share

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    And in February tens of millions of voters start seeing an increase in their take home pay. I’m looking forward to that myself lol.

    But I’m not tired of winning yet. Let’s keep this thing going.
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by evince View Post
    20 cents wont get much of a positive reaction
    Ok...I'll take the bait. What's "20" cents?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TOP View Post
    Ok...I'll take the bait. What's "20" cents?
    20 pennies or 2 dimes or 4 nickels.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    And in February tens of millions of voters start seeing an increase in their take home pay. I’m looking forward to that myself lol.

    But I’m not tired of winning yet. Let’s keep this thing going.
    MAGA baby
    This just In::: Trump indicted for living in liberals heads and not paying RENT

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    Quote Originally Posted by noise View Post
    And the improvement has been rapid. RealClearPolitics pegs the current Democratic advantage at 8.5 points, but that’s down from a 13-point edge as recently as late December.

    A New York Times report this week suggests more room for GOP improvement in public opinion surveys:

    The tax overhaul that Mr. Trump signed into law just before Christmas remains relatively unpopular and highly polarizing, according to a new poll conducted for The New York Times by SurveyMonkey. But support for the law has grown significantly over the past month, and more Americans believe that they will receive a tax cut. Forty-six percent of Americans strongly or somewhat approved of the law in early January, up from 37 percent when the bill was nearing passage in December.

    The reason there is more room for improvement in Republican political fortunes is that according to the Times, most survey respondents still don’t believe they’re getting a tax cut. In fact, almost all of them are. As this reality becomes manifest in paychecks this winter, there’s no reason to think the signature Republican legislative achievement of the 115th Congress won’t become even more popular.

    As for the President who signed that legislation into law, ratings on a critical question are already on the rise. Mr. Trump remains underwater on the general question of his handling of the presidency, with a majority in virtually every poll expressing disapproval. But he is showing increasing strength on the issue of the economy, which just happens to be the issue that frequently decides elections.

    This week, the Economist/YouGov survey shows him ten points above water, with 49% approving of his handling of the economy compared to only 39% who disapprove. Meanwhile the latest Harvard/Harris poll, released today, also shows a Trump bump on this issue despite general voter disapproval of his job performance:

    Despite an uptick in optimism over the economy, the President’s approval has only marginally improved, continuing to hover on the lower end of the range at 42% job approval and 58% disapproval. However, in January the President received his highest rating for stimulating jobs and handling the economy, both at 54% approval.

    By passing pro-growth tax reform, Republicans have given themselves more than a puncher’s chance of holding their congressional majorities. This will require bucking history, which usually shows a rough year for the President’s party in the first mid-term of his presidency. For example, in 1982, during President Ronald Reagan’s second year in office, Republicans lost 26 seats in the House. In 1994, Bill Clinton watched his Democratic colleagues lose 52 House seats. In 2010, during year two of Barack Obama’s tenure, the Democrats lost 63 seats.

    Why should 2018 be any different? When lawmakers enacted the Reagan tax cuts in 1981, Republicans blundered by agreeing to delay the implementation of many provisions. Without the immediate pro-growth boost, the U.S. economy shrank by nearly 2% in 1982 and voters registered their displeasure. In 1994 and 2010, voters were angry over government attempts (successful in 2010) to exert greater control over their health care. The current GOP majority hasn’t made such mistakes. Pro-growth policy, taking immediate effect, is becoming more popular.

    Today the Federal Reserve Bank of New York affirmed its estimate of 3.9% economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year, and is now forecasting another quarter above 3% in the first three months of 2018. That’s a good economic environment in any era, and a stark contrast to the slow growth of the Obama years. Game on.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-rep...le_email_share
    When I got to the part about Americans keeping more of their money being "unpopular" I stopped reading, you should hide nonsense deeper into your posts.. just sayin
    This just In::: Trump indicted for living in liberals heads and not paying RENT

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phantasmal View Post
    20 pennies or 2 dimes or 4 nickles
    Is evince so "upset" this morning that she's unable to answer? It's nickels, btw

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    Quote Originally Posted by TOP View Post
    Is evince so "upset" this morning that she's unable to answer? It's nickels, btw
    Yes, I at least knew what 20 cents is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Getin the ring View Post
    When I got to the part about Americans keeping more of their money being "unpopular" I stopped reading, you should hide nonsense deeper into your posts.. just sayin
    you should have kept reading..remember we are dealing with Fake News, and their goal is to deceive.
    They do it quite well to a gullible population

    most survey respondents still don’t believe they’re getting a tax cut. In fact, almost all of them are.
    As this reality becomes manifest in paychecks this winter, there’s no reason to think the signature Republican legislative achievement of the 115th Congress won’t become even more popular.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    And in February tens of millions of voters start seeing an increase in their take home pay. I’m looking forward to that myself lol.

    But I’m not tired of winning yet. Let’s keep this thing going.
    immigration issue should give some funding for the wall . end the chain stuff and lottery.
    ( and the money Shumer offered was an allowance -not an appropriation. no appropriation and it doesn't get spent)

    But the next MAGA step is infrastructure..both short term economic stimulus, and a means to more growth

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    Presidents with an approval rating below 50% lost an average of 36 House seats.
    https://www.aol.com/article/news/201...ions/23314698/

    Trump has the lowest polling in American history and hasn't been above 40% since May of last year.

    Oh yeah, republican prospects are looking real good.
    AMERICAN HISTORY ITSELF IS A TESTAMENT TO THE STRENGTH AND RESILIENCE OF AFRICAN PEOPLE. WE, ALONG WITH THE COURGE AND SACRIFICES OF CONSCIOUS WHITE AMERICANS, LIKE VIOLA LIUZZO, EVERETT DIRKSEN, AND MANY OTHERS, HAVE FOUGHT AND DIED TOGETHER FOR OUR FREEDOM, AND FOR OUR SURVIVAL.

    In America, rights are are not determined by what is just, fair, equitable, honest, nor by what Jesus would do. Rights are determined ONLY by what you can DEMAND.

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    all politics are local..the R. retirements mean more then a POTUS approval ( and Trump always polls lower then he is).

    But yes, history is history.
    What's different is the Dems have absolutely nothing to run on.
    No wars to protest, no bad economy, and they have no message other then tired old ID politics

    Can you beat something with nothing? we'll see.

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