Deep-Level Post Election Analysis and Myth Addressing by yours truly

[Althea]

Because the Rep was accused by multiple women of sexual assault/misconduct when they were teens and Moore was in his 30's... all starting about a month or so before the election.

That is the only reason a Dem won the seat in AL.

I don't think the assault/misconduct issues inspired democrats voters. trump did that for almost 1 year. You can argue that the write in votes, coupled with those who stayed home did indeed sway the election. As such you can say it was one reason a Dem won the seat, but certainly not the only reason.

Without a massive democrat voting action yesterday, Moore still wins by quite a bit.

[katzgar]

The slut shamer lost

[Althea]

And that will continue. I don't think it matters how good the economy is - I personally hope that it's gangbusters this year. From the day after the election last year, Democrats have been more energized than they've been in many years. Candidate recruitment - in all regions - is ridiculous. The ground game, as we've seen yesterday & in November, is as good as it has been.

Dems are going to win turnout for the foreseeable future, and that is going to decide a lot of races.

Bush inspired Dean to create a massive ground game, ushering Obama into the White House by a landslide.

The travesty from last November has indeed done the same thing. Contrary to Cinton's inaction last year. The Obama coalition refused to vote. They're now seeing the damage that has done to them personally, and to the country in general.

[Micawber]

Imp hater says you can't even use this election as a data point. 😂

[BRUTALITOPS]

If voters reject an encumbant president in a booming economy—-I’ll have to see that to believe it.

Moore’s baggage makes extrapolating from this race kind of sketchy, but I know how desperate you are to do it, so go ahead, I’ll watch lol.

thing1 isn't wrong about 2018, the democrats could very easily win back the house (and have an outsie chance at the senate) the problem is the way he arrives at the conclusion is by falling down the stairs. This has been my criticism of him and other liberals since 2016, they lack the ability to think critically about these things. While democrats may very well do good in 2018, that is more or less independent from last nights results.

[BRUTALITOPS]

If Moore was such a bad candidate before the accusations and it has nothing to do with the accusations or Trump, then why didn’t they pick Strange?

it's alabama?

[Русский агент]

How come the requirement for every voter to show an ID didn't stop Jones from winning?

[BRUTALITOPS]

So, what were the other factors? You claim it was McConnel and then claim endorsements don’t matter, which is it?

certainly the establishment continuing to undermine their own candidate didn't help matters, especially in an election as close as this.

[BRUTALITOPS]

Correct. Moore/trump had no effect on all but 22,000 republican voters, who wrote in someone else. We can speculate as to the number of republican voters who simply stayed home. trump had a huge effect on democrat voters.

And that will continue. I don't think it matters how good the economy is - I personally hope that it's gangbusters this year. From the day after the election last year, Democrats have been more energized than they've been in many years. Candidate recruitment - in all regions - is ridiculous. The ground game, as we've seen yesterday & in November, is as good as it has been.

Dems are going to win turnout for the foreseeable future, and that is going to decide a lot of races.

again, the data that you want to ignore suggests this is not the case. only 19% of voters voted for jones out of anti-trump sentiment. Conversly 27% of moore voters voted out of pro-trump sentiment, giving trump an overall net effect of +8pts for roy moore in this race. Again, to reiterate, the vast majority of jones voters were NOT voting out of anti trump sentiment. You have no data to back this up. I have actual data, you have your woo woo bullshit and feels. get on my level.

[Русский агент]

Because the Rep was accused by multiple women of sexual assault/misconduct when they were teens and Moore was in his 30's... all starting about a month or so before the election.

That is the only reason a Dem won the seat in AL.

You may be correct. Do you suppose this will become a common electoral trick as a result?

[Micawber]

again, the data that you want to ignore suggests this is not the case. only 19% of voters voted for jones out of anti-trump sentiment. Conversly 27% of moore voters voted out of pro-trump sentiment, giving trump an overall net effect of +8pts for roy moore in this race. Again, to reiterate, the vast majority of jones voters were NOT voting out of anti trump sentiment. You have no data to back this up. I have actual data, you have your woo woo bullshit and feels. get on my level.

You are presented with a categorical variable issue, please apply the GoodmanKruskal fractional variable package to you data regression and report back. Get on my level.

[PostmodernProphet]

I don't think it matters how good the economy is -

right....because anyone who thinks its about the economy is stupid.....

[Althea]

again, the data that you want to ignore suggests this is not the case. only 19% of voters voted for jones out of anti-trump sentiment. Conversly 27% of moore voters voted out of pro-trump sentiment, giving trump an overall net effect of +8pts for roy moore in this race. Again, to reiterate, the vast majority of jones voters were NOT voting out of anti trump sentiment. You have no data to back this up. I have actual data, you have your woo woo bullshit and feels. get on my level.

You have exit polling. I can set up a poll to achieve any result I want, simply by creating loaded questions.


Dem. voters will continue to come out in droves, as a direct rebuke of the pussy grabber. You have no evidence to the contrary. I can't get past the WAPO paywall to view the poll, and corresponding data/sampling

[Cancel 2020.1]

again, the data that you want to ignore suggests this is not the case. only 19% of voters voted for jones out of anti-trump sentiment. Conversly 27% of moore voters voted out of pro-trump sentiment, giving trump an overall net effect of +8pts for roy moore in this race. Again, to reiterate, the vast majority of jones voters were NOT voting out of anti trump sentiment. You have no data to back this up. I have actual data, you have your woo woo bullshit and feels. get on my level.

You're basing your conclusions solely on exit polls.

If being on your level means cherrypicking facts and drawing selective conclusions, no thanks.

[Althea]

You're basing your conclusions solely on exit polls.

If being on your level means cherrypicking facts and drawing selective conclusions, no thanks.

Yep. I'd like to see the sampling from his polling. I'm not going to subscribe to WAPO just to view it.