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Thread: "Assad must go" Interventionists Proved Wrong About ISIS

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    After the events of the last 15 years you have to be a special kind of stupid to advocate for regime anywhere in the Middle East.

    Regardless of the reason. Secular despots are much better than theocratic totalitarians.

    Realpolitik 101.
    you would think so eh?

    The "assad must go" freaks are still at it though. But now we really have no say.
    I think Russia will give us a seat at the table of any Geneva negotiations, but it's their sphere -
    along with Assad and Iran and Turkey

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdog View Post
    I'm well aware of the sticking point of the new SOFA terms. Obama failed. After all that blood and treasure ... Obama failed miserably.

    We were told, by the SSM, that Saddam was "invincible". And now he's dead at the end of hangman's noose ... by the hands of his own people.
    the real cause of the Iraqi army disintegration was Malki's purge of the Sunni officer corps

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    Assad will go, in good time,
    Hopefully we have learned from recent past mistakes you need to have a plan in place to fill the void.

    Obama just assassinated Gaddafi in Libya , the Muslim brotherhood and a whole host of bad players were standing by at the ready when that happened, Chaos ensued.

    Bush at least had a plan in Iraq, it was just a really bad plan. At great sacrifice we seem to have ben able to salvage something out of Iraq, Libya is gone to the wolves forever.
    Let's work with Russia, and get Assad to ride off into the sunset on his own, after we have assured ISIS and other bad players will not ride into power.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    Obama failed because there’s this wonderful thing called ‘negotiation’. Obama wanted out of Iraq and the Iraqis gave him political cover to do it.
    I agree with your assessment.

    We didn't get permission to invade Iraq ... and we didn't need permission to stay or go. GWB was magnanimous enough to the let his successor make his own decision in that regard.
    Last edited by Bigdog; 12-11-2017 at 07:41 AM.
    "I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that's a storybook, man."
    — Joe Biden on Obama.

    Socialism is just the modern word for monarchy.

    D.C. has become a Guild System with an hierarchy and line of accession much like the Royal Court or priestly classes.

    Private citizens are perfectly able of doing a better job without "apprenticing".

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    Iraq’s Government, Not Obama, Called Time on the U.S. Troop Presence
    http://world.time.com/2011/10/21/ira...roop-presence/
    ending the U.S. troop presence in Iraq was an overwhelmingly popular demand among Iraqis, and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki appears to have been unwilling to take the political risk of extending it. While he was inclined to see a small number of American soldiers stay behind to continue mentoring Iraqi forces, the likes of Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, on whose support Maliki’s ruling coalition depends, were having none of it. Even the Obama Administration’s plan to keep some 3,000 trainers behind failed because the Iraqis were unwilling to grant them the legal immunity from local prosecution that is common to SOF agreements in most countries where U.S. forces are based.

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    bottom line is if keeping American troops behind in Iraq to assure ISIS didn't move in and render that sacrifice mute, we didn't need approval.

    The sacrifice we made to get them where they were was too steep to disrespect. Obama was the new leader, he needed to act like it. to pull troops out for political gain and blame it on Bush was cowardly
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    Quote Originally Posted by noise View Post
    Iraq’s Government, Not Obama, Called Time on the U.S. Troop Presence
    http://world.time.com/2011/10/21/ira...roop-presence/
    ending the U.S. troop presence in Iraq was an overwhelmingly popular demand among Iraqis, and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki appears to have been unwilling to take the political risk of extending it. While he was inclined to see a small number of American soldiers stay behind to continue mentoring Iraqi forces, the likes of Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, on whose support Maliki’s ruling coalition depends, were having none of it. Even the Obama Administration’s plan to keep some 3,000 trainers behind failed because the Iraqis were unwilling to grant them the legal immunity from local prosecution that is common to SOF agreements in most countries where U.S. forces are based.
    That’s where you entice Malaki to take the political risk of extending US presence.

    Obama dropped the ball. Bush II warned [nearly prophetically] of what would happen after total withdrawal. The stakes were too high for Obama to throw his diplomatic hands in the air and say ‘well, that’s that’.
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    That’s where you entice Malaki to take the political risk of extending US presence.

    Obama dropped the ball. Bush II warned [nearly prophetically] of what would happen after total withdrawal. The stakes were too high for Obama to throw his diplomatic hands in the air and say ‘well, that’s that’.
    And now that Mom Jeans is gone, we have President Trump who is willing to risk his own re-election by militarily confronting nuclear, prison state, North Korea
    "I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that's a storybook, man."
    — Joe Biden on Obama.

    Socialism is just the modern word for monarchy.

    D.C. has become a Guild System with an hierarchy and line of accession much like the Royal Court or priestly classes.

    Private citizens are perfectly able of doing a better job without "apprenticing".

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    "ending the U.S. troop presence in Iraq was an overwhelmingly popular demand among Iraqis, and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki appears to have been unwilling to take the political risk of extending it." n #20
    Yes.

    AND !!

    The terms of the U.S. military withdrawal of U.S. occupation forces in Iraq were set DURING THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION.

    Both U.S. law, and international law compelled Obama to withdraw his troops from Iraq, whether Iraq met the REVISED standards the Bushies set.
    In President Bush (younger's) own words, the goal remain:

    "an Iraq that can govern itself and sustain itself and defend itself." U.S. President Bush (younger)
    Obviously,
    considering how much of Iraq ISIL temporarily conquered, occupied, and plundered; the REVISED standards the Bushies committed to were not met BY THE BUSHIES OWN TIMETABLE.
    "It should be obvious to anyone why conservatives and libertarians should be against Trump. He has no grounding in belief. No core philosophy. No morals. No loyalty. No curiosity. No empathy and no understanding. He demands personal loyalty and not loyalty to the nation. His only core belief is in his own superiority to everyone else. His only want is exercise more and more personal power." smb / purveyor of fact 18/03/18

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    war is ok as long as we win and do so in an efficient manner.

    What people are actually complaining about is losing wars, and taking forever to do so.

    Which is why Trumps let the military loose strategy is preferable to Obamas micromanagment one.
    is on twitter @realtsuke

    https://tsukesthoughts.wordpress.com/

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    Quote Originally Posted by noise View Post
    The notion that Assad “won’t fight” Islamic State was always wrong. The notion that “defeating Islamic State also requires defeating Bashar Assad” was, likewise, always wrong. By now it should be obvious that the Syrian Arab Army has played a role in degrading Islamic State in Syria — not alone, of course, but with Russian and Iranian partners, not to mention the impressive U.S.-led coalition. In marked contrast to pundit expectations, the group’s demise was inversely related to Assad’s power. Islamic State’s fortunes decreased as his influence in the country increased.

    Some of the best political science research over the past couple of decades finds that militants are less likely to emerge in response to political grievances than from propitious conditions for them to organize. For Islamic State, the “opportunity model” of terrorism was always a better fit than the “grievance model.” After all, this is a group that set up shop in the desert, far away from the Syrian military; preyed on soft targets like the Yazidis who never oppressed the Sunni population; and planted affiliates in countries known not for their anti-Sunni government, but the lack of a functioning one.

    As in Iraq a decade earlier, regime change in Syria would have created the ultimate power vacuum for Islamic State to flourish.

    Moreover, the notion that pumping arms and fighters into Syria would mitigate the unrest is actually the opposite of what study after study has established. The conflict literature makes clear that external support for the opposition tends to exacerbate and extend civil wars, which usually peter out not through power-sharing agreements among fighting equals, but when one side — typically, the incumbent — achieves dominance.

    The Realist paradigm reminds us that the U.S. need not share the same ideology of a nasty international actor to countenance working with him against a mutual foe. With its sensitivity to overspending and blowback, Realism also emphasizes the dangers of militarily picking foreign governments around the world.

    Although the Islamic State’s caliphate is dead, Assad’s war on terrorists in Syria is very much alive. Let’s hope future analysis of this conflict avoids the kind of anti-empirical ideological advocacy that helped give rise to Al Qaeda in Iraq and then Islamic State in the first place.

    Max Abrahms is a professor of political science at Northeastern University and a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations. John Glaser is director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.

    Equally contrary to analyst predictions, the group imploded right after external support for the “moderate” rebels dried up. The weakening of the rebels was a major setback for Islamic State because Assad could finally focus his firepower on the group. Fewer weapon shipments into the theater, moreover, meant fewer arms fell into the hands of Salafi jihadists.

    How strange, then, that we haven’t heard many pundits acknowledge their mistakes; they’re not itching to atone for having almost forced another regime-change mission based on discredited analysis.

    The now-defunct conventional wisdom was not only stubbornly anti-empirical, but unmoored from the political science literature. With few exceptions, international relations scholars seemed content to stand back and watch think tank pundits do the day-to-day Syria analysis while ignoring the red flags dotting the research landscape.
    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed...story,amp.html

    So now the syrians have Bots too

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    Trump knows nothing but winning, it's in his DNA.

    So ISIS has met their match, they will fall as will Kim Jong, as will Assad, and as will any liberal or conservative obstructionist that tries him
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    anyways....
    back to the OP and see just how wrong this bunch of warhorses are,and why interventionism
    in Syria was such a bad move

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