More storms in the news - I predict liberals will politicize them & blame Trump

[Sailor]

He's a good guy in the same sense that an average error of 175 kilometers is "close to spot on", I guess.

Catch a flight to Puerto Rico. I will come get you. Come on down and actually do something besides bitching.

[Life is Golden]

Well, that settles it, then, as long as you and some unnamed local meteorologists think an average error of 175 kilometers is "close to spot on".

Well, it settles it. The Euro is wrong because some nobody blogger (whose page no longer exists) said so.

[Sailor]

Well, it settles it. The Euro is wrong because some nobody blogger (whose page no longer exists) said so.

175 KM is 108.7 miles. To be that accurate with a hurricane ( which varies in size from 150-400 miles wide) is pretty damn accurate!

[Русский агент]

Well, it settles it. The Euro is wrong because some nobody blogger (whose page no longer exists) said so.

You can believe what and whom you like.

Forecast models typically show their skill with three-, four-, and five-day forecasts. For simplicity's sake, we will focus on 120-hour forecasts. At this lead time, the average error of the European model with respect to Irma has been about 175km in its position forecast. The next best forecast is from the hurricane center, which is slightly more than 300km.



https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/us-forecast-models-have-been-pretty-terrible-during-hurricane-irma/

[Русский агент]

One of the lessons we should draw from Hurricane Irma is one we ought to have learned by now: not to treat predictions of the future that are based on complex systems as facts.

Hurricane modeling is quite bad at long-term forecasting, even over a horizon of a week; the models need to be continuously updated, and their predictions revised hourly based on new data, as each storm progresses (even once Irma’s size and path were generally foreseeable, forecasters didn’t know for days if the storm’s eye would head up Florida’s Atlantic or Gulf Coasts).

And even then, the best of models can be off in very important ways due to the interaction of the known elements of a complex system (weather over the water). That’s exactly what happened with Irma as it veered away at the last minute from delivering the kind of catastrophic damage to Florida’s mainland that it dropped on the Keys and several of the islands to the south.

Twenty miles may have made a $150 billion difference. Estimates for the damage Hurricane Irma would inflict on Florida kept mounting as it made its devastating sweep across the Caribbean. It was poised to be the costliest U.S. storm on record. Then something called the Bermuda High intervened and tripped it up.

If Irma had passed 20 miles west of Marco Island instead of striking it on Sunday, the damage would have been astronomical. A track like that would have placed the powerful, eastern eye wall of Irma on Florida’s Gulf Coast.

By one estimate, the total cost dropped to about $50 billion Monday from $200 billion over the weekend. The state escaped the worst because Irma’s eye shifted away from the biggest population center of Miami-Dade County.

The credit goes to the Bermuda High. The circular system hovering over Bermuda jostled Irma onto northern Cuba Saturday, where being over land sapped it of some power, and then around the tip of the Florida peninsula, cutting down on storm surge damage on both coasts of the state.

For 10 days, computer-forecast models had struggled with how the high was going to push Irma around and when it was going to stop, said Peter Sousounis, director of meteorology at AIR Worldwide. “I have never watched a forecast more carefully than Irma. I was very surprised not by how one model was going back and forth — but by how all the models were going back and forth.”

Now meteorologists are watching Hurricane Jose churn in a circle north of the Leeward Islands. Sousounis said computer models are struggling to predict whether it will pass harmlessly out to sea or strike Cape Cod at the end of Massachusetts.

Jose won’t give up the answer for more than a week.



http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/451386/hurricane-irma-do-not-trust-predictions

[Life is Golden]

175 KM is 108.7 miles. To be that accurate with a hurricane ( which varies in size from 150-400 miles wide) is pretty damn accurate!

Thanks for the translation!

I know the Euro predicted the Westward track first. If Stretch ever gets his power back, I hope he weighs in on the latest ones. Maria is not looking good for anyone.

[Sailor]

Thanks for the translation!

I know the Euro predicted the Westward track first. If Stretch ever gets his power back, I hope he weighs in on the latest ones. Maria is not looking good for anyone.

Stretch was doing an awesome job keeping folks informed about Irma. Looking out for everyone. Good people!

[Life is Golden]

Stretch was doing an awesome job keeping folks informed about Irma. Looking out for everyone. Good people!

Absolutely. Sure sucks he's been without power this long.

[Sailor]

Absolutely. Sure sucks he's been without power this long.

That is a long time for sure. As you well know, there was lot more damage in FLA than any TV or media source can show accurately.

[Life is Golden]

I was just reading about that. I can't go through this again already.

[Barack O'bama]

Latest CMC model shows Maria making landfall in SW Florida.

Looks like Picasso drew that map.

[Русский агент]

Behold - I presciently predicted the lying liberals repugnant response to Maria on September 17th, with pinpoint precision prognostication.