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Thread: More storms in the news - I predict liberals will politicize them & blame Trump

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    Default More storms in the news - I predict liberals will politicize them & blame Trump

    After Hurricane Harvey pounded Texas and Hurricane Irma barreled through Florida, it's hard to imagine the weather getting any worse.

    However, two hurricanes are expected to head north in the next couple days and even hit some of the same areas that Hurricane Irma already devastated.

    According to the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Maria is expected to turn into a hurricane by Monday and become a major hurricane by Wednesday. Maria is headed right for the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, which have already been completely devastated by Hurricane Irma.




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    Let's hope not!

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    Русский  (09-17-2017)

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    Lee is supposed to be damaged by wind shear, Jose is going out to sea, Maria is the biggest threat right now.

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    They've been pretty spot-on. We shall see.

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    Sailor (09-17-2017)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trump Diva View Post
    They've been pretty spot-on. We shall see.
    I am watching Maria very closely. Her projected path is right where we are providing assistance for the next month or so. Oh joy.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sailor View Post
    I am watching Maria very closely. Her projected path is right where we are providing assistance for the next month or so. Oh joy.....
    Yep, that's the one to watch. Sure hope she gets pulled out to sea.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trump Diva View Post
    Yep, that's the one to watch. Sure hope she gets pulled out to sea.
    You, I and everyone in the Caribbean!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    After Irma's wrath, don't know how much more those poor islands can take.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trump Diva View Post
    After Irma's wrath, don't know how much more those poor islands can take.
    Not much. Have not seen devastation like this in a long time. I can tell you they are some happy when we arrive with supplies.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sailor View Post
    Not much. Have not seen devastation like this in a long time. I can tell you they are some happy when we arrive with supplies.
    You've been there to help? Wow, that's awesome.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trump Diva View Post
    You've been there to help? Wow, that's awesome.
    Yes. Since Irma. We started before she even left North Florida. And thanks!

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    Quote Originally Posted by God bless America View Post
    No computer model or human forecaster got Hurricane Irma right. Forecasters relied heavily on ensemble forecasting to gauge the storm's threat to the U.S. well in advance. Such forecasting involves running a computer model numerous times while varying the initial conditions slightly each time.

    Hurricane Irma is one more in a long line of storms to shine a spotlight on problems with the the premiere U.S. model, known as the Global Forecast System (GFS), particularly at intermediate to longer timescales.

    The European model, too, missed the eventual track the storm took. The GFS model did, however, perform better than the European model when it came to short-range forecasts near the time of landfall.



    Forecast models are typically evaluated by their forecast skill at different timescales, including three, four, and five days.






    You can see from this chart that, for example, 120 hours in advance, the official forecast was off by around 300 kilometers. The European model had an average error of just 175 kilometers at that timescale, whereas the average 120-hour error of the GFS model at 120 hours was about 475 kilometers. The models were more tightly clustered at 12- and 24-hour timescales.

    Forecasters are stuck with a temperamental model that can fail to catch on to upcoming threats. This was the case with Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

    The GFS model went through an upgrade earlier this year, but it may not have improved things when it comes to hurricane forecasting. The upgrade improved the model's horizontal resolution, but not its vertical resolution.

    NOAA operates about 20 computer models, including some that focus on the oceans, some on weather, and a plume model to track the spread volcanic ash and hazardous air pollutants.

    Private companies are seeing business opportunities in weather prediction. Panasonic and IBM have developed their own models, and IBM's even has a weather-related name: "Deep Thunder."


    http://mashable.com/2017/09/14/hurricane-irma-weather-forecast-models/
    Your link is broken.

    Not sure why you take the extra time to make a link so small people can't just click on it. That's bizarre.

    I followed Irma from start to finish and the Euro was closer to spot on than any others. I don't need someone else's opinion to know that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sailor View Post
    Yes. Since Irma. We started before she even left North Florida. And thanks!
    Nice!

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    Quote Originally Posted by God bless America View Post
    "The European model had an average error of just 175 kilometers". If that's close enough to spot on for you, OK.
    According to my local meteorologists, the Euro was the most accurate model. And I watched them all the time as the storm was of potential impact to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by God bless America View Post
    Saint Sailor Boi has a nice ring to it.

    I mean, what a hero. It's not like he's being paid handsomely to be noble, is it?
    Sailor is a good guy.

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