Democrats and Demographics

[cawacko]

Very interesting perspective from John Judis. People like Desh have proclaimed demographics are destiny but as the author says that's not necessarily the case.



Coalition of the Descendant

‘I argued that demographics favored the Democrats. I was wrong.’


Hard as it may be to believe, this could be the beginning of the end of identity politics. The intellectual godfather of the Democratic Party’s strategy of focusing on racial appeals is now suggesting it was all a big mistake.

In 2002, John Judis co-authored “The Emerging Democratic Majority,” which argued that the growth of minority populations—ultimately leading to an America in which whites will no longer be a majority—would be among the factors providing a sustained advantage for the political left and specifically the Democrats. Now Mr. Judis writes in the New Republic that the book “laid out an overly optimistic forecast of the party’s prospects in an increasingly diverse America.” According to Mr. Judis:

On one level, there’s no arguing with the math. If you take the percentage of Americans that the U.S. census defines as “minorities” and project their past voting habits into the next decade and beyond, you’ll come up with a very sunny version of the Democrats’ prospects. There are only two problems with this line of thinking, but they’re pretty big ones. For starters, the census prediction of a “majority-minority” America—slated to arrive in 2044—is deeply flawed. And so is the notion that ethnic minorities will always and forever continue to back Democrats in Obama-like numbers.

The U.S. census makes a critical assumption that undermines its predictions of a majority-nonwhite country. It projects that the same percentage of people who currently identify themselves as “Latino” or “Asian” will continue to claim those identities in future generations. In reality, that’s highly unlikely. History shows that as ethnic groups assimilate into American culture, they increasingly identify themselves as “white.”

Mr. Judis says it’s happening again:

In the 2010 Census, 53 percent of Latinos identified as “white,” as did more than half of Asian Americans of mixed parentage. In future generations, those percentages are almost certain to grow. According to a recent Pew study, more than one-quarter of Latinos and Asians marry non-Latinos and non-Asians, and that number will surely continue to climb over the generations.

Unless ethnic identification is defined in purely racial—and racist—terms, the census projections are straight-out wrong and profoundly misleading. So is the assumption that Asians and Latinos will continue to vote at an overwhelming clip for Democrats.

Mr. Judis then points out the success of Republican politicians like Sens. John Cornyn of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida in winning Hispanic votes. The author also notes that Asians nationwide went for the GOP in the 2014 midterm elections.

There’s a lesson here as well for Republicans, some of whom may oppose increased immigration because they believed the liberal hype that new Americans will be new votes for Democrats. Expanding economic opportunity is one way to turn them into new Republicans.

Has America already hit Peak Identity? The rise of Bernie Sanders suggests that it has. This week Mr. Sanders demonstrated his influence on Democratic Party politics by rolling out his plan for a government-run health plan co-sponsored by several of the top contenders for the party’s 2020 presidential nomination.

Claims of victimhood based on race or gender are incompatible with Bernie Sanders’ Marxist philosophy, which holds that America victimizes almost everybody, regardless of color or chromosomes. The socialist Mr. Sanders is now arguably the most important voice in the Democratic Party, even though he’s not a member.

Mr. Judis is also urging Democrats to forget narrow racial appeals and focus on what he calls “economic justice” for all. “I argued that demographics favored the Democrats. I was wrong,” he says.

If Democrats trade the politics of racial grievance for the politics of class warfare, Republicans can beat them again with a freedom agenda. Economic growth will work for both new and native citizens, regardless of what color they call themselves.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/coaliti...ant-1505487105

[BRUTALITOPS]

I have posted about this many times only to be ignored. Yes, it's correct. It doesn't take long for a generation or two to identify with being white. This is why racial politics in their modern form exist in the first place, the powers that be are trying to stigmatize being white so that future generations are hesitant to identify with that moniker. I posted some articles from liberals a couple of months ago talking about how scary and how much of a "problem" it was that children of mexicans were identifying as white instead of hispanic.

Additionally it's a false assumption that black people or whoever else will be loyal to democrats forever. Lets fast foward 50 years and have black people far more on an economic equal footing with white people. Once that problem is solved, black people might want to protect their assets and want lower taxes. It's foolish to think that skin color = sticking with one party indefinitely.

[BRUTALITOPS]

there was a time where italians, the irish, the polish etc weren't considered "white"... but they were assimilated. Hispanics will be assimilated as well.