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Thread: CBO score on the HC bill

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    Default CBO score on the HC bill


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    because clearly they were correct about obamacare
    is on twitter @realtsuke

    https://tsukesthoughts.wordpress.com/

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    http://www.fiercehealthcare.com/paye...nably-accurate



    The CBO projected in 2010 that average marketplace would be 8 million by 2014 and that 7 million would be receiving subsidies, a generally lower forecast than that of other groups including the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, RAND Corporation and the Lewin Group. The actual enrollment was lower than any group's prediction, with only 6 million enrolled by the end of 2014 and about 5 million of them receiving subsidies--though the total enrollment jumped to 8 million by the end of the sign-up period due to a last-minute surge.
    In 2010, the CBO projected that 10 million people would enroll in Medicaid expansion by 2014, a figure it revised to 7 million when the Supreme Court ruled that states could opt out of expanding the program. The actual increase in Medicaid enrollment due to the ACA was about 8 million, the analysis found, making CBO's projection and the Urban Institute's the two most accurate after adjusting other groups' predictions on the same scale the CBO used.
    The CBO estimated in 2015 that the ACA had reduced the number of uninsured by 12 million, leaving a remaining 42 million uninsured. Though it uses a somewhat different metric than the CBO uses, the estimate from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) was that 36 million people lacked health insurance in 2014. The latest data from the NHIS, meanwhile, shows the uninsured rate is down to an all-time low of 9 percent.
    In 2010, nearly all groups overestimated the average premium of a "benchmark"--or second-lowest cost--silver plan in 2014. For example, the CBO estimated $4,700 per year, and Urban Institute projected $4,618, while the actual figure was $3,800.

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    CBO is always WAY wrong on healthcare.
    Anyways..what they don't score is how much Medicade expansion adds to the national debt.

    Obama doubled the national debt to almost $20t. we cannot do that again

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    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ions/99157846/




    Coverage
    As it normally does, CBO attempted to forecast the law’s effects in each of the following 10 years. And here we compare what actually happened last year with what CBO predicted for 2016.
    CBO got the big picture right. It predicted that millions of people would gain coverage, and millions did.
    It predicted that the number of nonelderly (under age 65) people lacking insurance would drop to 30 million in 2016. And that turned out to be pretty close. The actual number was 27.9 million during the first nine months of last year, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health Interview Survey. That’s a decline of 20.3 million since 2010, by CDC’s reckoning.

    In percentage terms, CBO predicted 89% of the nonelderly would be covered by last year. CDC put the actual percentage at 89.7%.
    Exchanges
    Where CBO had trouble was predicting the number of newly insured who would get their coverage by purchasing private insurance through the new exchanges set up by the law. CBO predicted that in 2016 there would be 23 million getting policies through the exchanges. The actual number was 10.4 million during the first half of the year, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
    That’s less than half the predicted total.
    Medicaid
    On the other hand, CBO was too low in its estimate of the number who would gain coverage through expansion of Medicaid, the state-federal program for low-income people and children.
    CBO estimated 10 million would be added to the Medicaid rolls by 2016, even with many states refusing to expand eligibility. But that was too low. As of the first quarter of last year, 14.4 million adults had enrolled in Medicaid as a result of the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of the program, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured.
    So to a large extent, CBO’s mistake was in estimating where the uninsured would get covered, not how many of them would gain coverage.
    Other Estimates
    In January 2016, the nonpartisan Commonwealth Fund published an analysis by New York University’s Sherry Glied of CBO’s forecast of the ACA’s effects. She called CBO’s predictions “reasonably accurate” compared with actual results in 2014.
    The gap between CBO’s prediction and reality has widened now that 2016 figures are available for comparison. But Glied also found that CBO’s predictions were closer to 2014 reality than those of four other forecasters — the Obama administration’s own figures, and those of the RAND Corp., the Urban Institute and the Lewin Group, a health industry consulting firm.
    Glied concluded, “Given the likelihood of additional reforms to national health policy in future years, it is reassuring that, despite the many unforeseen factors surrounding the law’s rollout and participation in its reforms, the CBO’s forecast was reasonably accurate.”
    And on March 13, CBO issued another, much-anticipated projection of the Obamacare repeal bill being considered by the Republican-controlled House. CBO estimated that under the GOP’s American Health Care Act,*14 million fewer people would have health insurance next year than under current law, and that number would rise to 24 million in 2026.
    “In 2026, an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law,” CBO said.
    Earlier on the day the analysis was published, White House press secretary Sean Spicer — who had been denigrating CBO’s work for days — said, “The last time they did this, they were wildly off and the number keeps declining.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by evince View Post
    How many would choose not to have insurance? That's important

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    Quote Originally Posted by Alice in Liberaland View Post
    How many would choose not to have insurance? That's important
    yet force everyone else to pay for them when they need care


    we have a right to force them to pay for their care huh

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    Quote Originally Posted by evince View Post
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ions/99157846/




    Coverage
    As it normally does, CBO attempted to forecast the law’s effects in each of the following 10 years. And here we compare what actually happened last year with what CBO predicted for 2016.
    CBO got the big picture right. It predicted that millions of people would gain coverage, and millions did.
    It predicted that the number of nonelderly (under age 65) people lacking insurance would drop to 30 million in 2016. And that turned out to be pretty close. The actual number was 27.9 million during the first nine months of last year, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health Interview Survey. That’s a decline of 20.3 million since 2010, by CDC’s reckoning.

    In percentage terms, CBO predicted 89% of the nonelderly would be covered by last year. CDC put the actual percentage at 89.7%.
    Exchanges
    Where CBO had trouble was predicting the number of newly insured who would get their coverage by purchasing private insurance through the new exchanges set up by the law. CBO predicted that in 2016 there would be 23 million getting policies through the exchanges. The actual number was 10.4 million during the first half of the year, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
    That’s less than half the predicted total.
    Medicaid
    On the other hand, CBO was too low in its estimate of the number who would gain coverage through expansion of Medicaid, the state-federal program for low-income people and children.
    CBO estimated 10 million would be added to the Medicaid rolls by 2016, even with many states refusing to expand eligibility. But that was too low. As of the first quarter of last year, 14.4 million adults had enrolled in Medicaid as a result of the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of the program, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured.
    So to a large extent, CBO’s mistake was in estimating where the uninsured would get covered, not how many of them would gain coverage.
    Other Estimates
    In January 2016, the nonpartisan Commonwealth Fund published an analysis by New York University’s Sherry Glied of CBO’s forecast of the ACA’s effects. She called CBO’s predictions “reasonably accurate” compared with actual results in 2014.
    The gap between CBO’s prediction and reality has widened now that 2016 figures are available for comparison. But Glied also found that CBO’s predictions were closer to 2014 reality than those of four other forecasters — the Obama administration’s own figures, and those of the RAND Corp., the Urban Institute and the Lewin Group, a health industry consulting firm.
    Glied concluded, “Given the likelihood of additional reforms to national health policy in future years, it is reassuring that, despite the many unforeseen factors surrounding the law’s rollout and participation in its reforms, the CBO’s forecast was reasonably accurate.”
    And on March 13, CBO issued another, much-anticipated projection of the Obamacare repeal bill being considered by the Republican-controlled House. CBO estimated that under the GOP’s American Health Care Act,*14 million fewer people would have health insurance next year than under current law, and that number would rise to 24 million in 2026.
    “In 2026, an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law,” CBO said.
    Earlier on the day the analysis was published, White House press secretary Sean Spicer — who had been denigrating CBO’s work for days — said, “The last time they did this, they were wildly off and the number keeps declining.”
    You just wiped the floor with anatta's lying bullshit.
    It is the responsibility of every American citizen to own a modern military rifle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rune View Post
    You just wiped the floor with anatta's lying bullshit.
    lol..Rune quotes spam to justify his feelings

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    Quote Originally Posted by anatta View Post
    CBO is always WAY wrong on healthcare.
    Anyways..what they don't score is how much Medicade expansion adds to the national debt.

    Obama doubled the national debt to almost $20t. we cannot do that again
    The CBO is always wrong because they have no idea how complicated healthcare is lol.

    Republicans need to get something on Trump's desk. The bill could have a provision that cures cancer and democrats would still moan about it. They need to ignore the inevitable partisan noise and pass the bill.

    It won't be perfect because there is no perfect after the Obamacare debacle. But pass a bill and then address whatever is wrong with it down the road.
    Coup has started. First of many steps. Impeachment will follow ultimately~WB attorney Mark Zaid, January 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by anatta View Post
    lol..Rune quotes spam to justify his feelings
    That "spam" proves you wrong 10 ways from Sunday.
    What is it like to be a lying partisan hack?
    It is the responsibility of every American citizen to own a modern military rifle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Omar View Post
    The CBO is always wrong because they have no idea how complicated healthcare is lol.

    Republicans need to get something on Trump's desk. The bill could have a provision that cures cancer and democrats would still moan about it. They need to ignore the inevitable partisan noise and pass the bill.

    It won't be perfect because there is no perfect after the Obamacare debacle. But pass a bill and then address whatever is wrong with it down the road.
    nobody talks about deficit reduction. OBCare is another un-affordable entitlement.
    Somehow the FEDs are now looked at as a primary guarantor ( payer) of HC

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