Senior Member
Lessons From Georgia
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Lessons From Georgia
The most important, earth-shattering, stupendous special election of all time (at least according to media) is over. The result is that the Republican beat the Democrat by 3.8%. The media have billed this as a referendum on Trump. If that is the case then Trump is more popular now than ever as he only won the district by 1.5%. Democrats certainly went all in on this election. They spend 50 million on one congressional seat. The most expensive race in history with nothing to show for it. Very similar to the last presidential election if you think about it. With all these well-funded races Democrats do run the danger of exhausting their donor base before the midterms.*
There was also another election in South Carolina which was supposed to be an easy win for Republicans but was only won by 3.2%.
For the Democrats
The first question anyone ever asks is why Democrats lost. Make no mistake this was a very winnable race for them. Trump only won the district by 1.5% and previous Democrats running in the district were doing so with almost no funding. So what went wrong?
The Democrats lost the minute they started spending all that money on the district and advertising it as a referendum on Trump. Reports on the ground say the residents were inundated with mail, volunteers and advertisements on tv. People in the area are most likely breathing a sigh of relief now that the torrent is over.
The reason Democrats do all these things they believe in the conventional wisdom that higher turn out benefits Democrats while lower turnout benefits Republicans. The problem with relying on conventional wisdom is that you never take the time to understand why it came about and instead rely on it blindly.
The theory is that Republicans vote no matter what and that Democrats need to be led to the voting booths by hand. This could not be further from the truth in this environment. Democrats are angry. They would have come out to vote whether you spent money or not. Republicans on the other hand are divided between the regular conservatives and the Trumpian nationalists. There is friction between the two as there have been some issues where they have not been able to compromise on. For all intents and purposes Handel was a regular conservative. By making the issue a national referendum on Trump the Democrat strategists forced the nationalists to come out as well and vote for her.
In this environment a lower turnout helps Democrats as they are the side that is more energized. The race in South Carolina is a perfect example. The district was leaned a lot more Republican than the one in Georgia. The turnout was lower so the Democrats did better.
It is very sad that with 50 million the Democrats could not afford better strategists.
For the Republicans
I have a confession to make. I wanted Ossoff to win. I believe Republicans have not figured out that they either hang together or hang separately. An Ossof win would have forced them to learn that.*
Luckily the South Carolina contest happened on the same day so we can still learn the same lesson. For better or worse conservatives have to realize that they are not the only ones in the Republican party anymore. Nothing frustrates me more than conservative thinkers like Ben Shapiro refusing to support Trump when he enacts policies that the nationalist faction wants him to enact. I understand that it may not be exactly what you want but having the other members of your coalition there lets more of your people get elected so you do get some of the stuff you want. It is literally a difference between getting some of the things you want and nothing. What Ben Shapiro and the rest have not figured out is if nationalists get nothing from Trump then there is no reason for us to support the Republicans in the future.*
The Georgia race should be an object lesson for Republicans. The opponent spent unlimited amounts of money and lost by a bigger margin than Clinton did. The different factions in the party united has the potential to score even greater majorities in 2018.
Last edited by tsuke; 06-21-2017 at 12:29 PM.
Canceled
The entire analysis is flawed, because you're using the results of a Presidential race as a basis for comparison.
Congressional races tend to be local. And the GOP candidate has won that district's race every single time for decades, by an average margin of over 30%. No way the Dems should have come close there. They miscalculated & should not have spent the money - but a Republican winning there is hardly a surprise.
Verified User
We re-learned polls aren't accurate measurements in predicting election results.
fully immersed in faith..
lol.....sure......not a single demmycrat expected this congressional race to have anything to do with national politics......Originally Posted by Thing1
Former Vice President
The democrat party did not spend $50 million. That was what was spent in total. Although the dems spent a boatload
Canceled
Many did, but that doesn't make it the reality. It was wishful thinking on the part of national Democrats, but clearly in hindsight, the dynamics of the race & impetus for the results were local.
Senior Member
no its nawt : ) dems made it into a national referendum.
Former Vice President
So let's review
The democrat party spends tens of millions on a race you claim they had ZERO shot of winning and you don't think it is an unmitigated disaster for them to waste such valuable resources in a losing effort?
These actions give you confidence and be their strategy for 2018?
Canceled
The Dems TRIED to make it a national referendum.
They made the mistake of reading too much into the potential of a race in a deeply red area. Now, many on the right are making the mistake of buying that this is vindication for Trump and has larger implications.
A pretty liberal guy couldn't win in a pretty conservative district. In other news, the sun will go down tonight.
fully immersed in faith..
do you have any posts making this argument BEFORE the dems lost?......
Canceled
I was talking just yesterday about how the Dems wasted their money there & that it was unlikely they'd win.
ILA said I was just doing that strategically to cover myself in case Dems lost.
fully immersed in faith..
lol......it was pretty clear yesterday that they weren't going to win, but I want to know when you started pointing out this election wouldn't be a referendum on Trump..........
Verified User
You're saying Dems made two mistakes now. One, making it a referendum on the POTUS, and two, dumping millions of dollars into a race they "knew" they had no chance of winning.
Who's running that outfit, anyway?
Canceled
I've been saying it for about a week. But there was absolutely nothing different about yesterday compared to the previous week or so. What are you talking about? Do you mean at night, when returns started coming in & it looked less likely?
Before the returns started coming in, the feeling was basically the same. Most expected a close race.
Canceled
You'll have to ask them. I don't consider myself to be a Democrat. But they're definitely making mistakes right now.
So different from the smooth, mistake-free sailing we see from Trump.
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