Climate induced sea level rise didn’t wipe out five Solomon Islands

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The sea levels of the Solomon Islands are rising of 7-10 mm yr-1 only by cherry picking

Guest essay by Albert Parker

Albert, Leon, Grinham, Church, Gibbes & Woodroffe recently published in Environmental Research Letters [1] a paper claiming the “rates of sea-level rise in the Solomon Islands over the past two decades are amongst the highest globally, averaging 3 mm yr−1 since 1950 and 7–10 mm yr−1 since 1994” echoing wrong claims by others. This “evidence” of 7-10 mm yr-1 sea level rise due to man-made global warming is what is then trumpeted in catastrophic press releases such as [2, 3]. Titles obviously catastrophic “rising sea levels blamed for wiping out five islands”. The leading author declares “the Solomons was considered a sea-level hotspot because rises there are almost three times higher than the global average”. However, as always with the claims of “Intergovernmental experts”, the right numbers are at the most one fourth of the claim

The alarmistic claim originates from riding the positive phase of the inter-annual, decadal and multi-decadal oscillations typical of the sea levels over a cherry picked short time window of 10-15 years, neglecting what was measured before 1994 by another tide gauge in pretty much same location, and also neglecting what has been measured in the same tide gauge since 2009.

Short records do not permit to clear the trend of the inter-annual, decadal and multi-decadal oscillations [4-8]. In the Solomon Islands there is no tide gauge long enough to infer a proper trend. However, the information available permits to dismiss the alarmist claim of 7-10 mm yr-1 rate of rise.

The high quality Revised Local Reference (RLR) data set of the PSMSL [9, 10] includes the two tide gauges of Honiara II and Honiara B.

Both tide gauge records are short, about 20 years long.

Honiara B is part of the “substitutional evidence” of the Pacific Sea Level Monitoring (PSLM) project [11].

Honiara II ceased operation 5 months after Honiara B started operation, and it is forgotten since then.

The data of Honiara B are updated every year in PSMSL [10], and every month in PSLM [12] where in addition to the monthly average mean sea level (MSL), also the monthly minimum and maximum are provided.

No levelling has been performed for Honiara B vs. Honiara II to permit the construction of a composite record that could have lowered and made more reliable the sea level rise estimation. However, both tide gauges were recording during the year 1994 for 5 months, August to December. The differences in between the RLR data for Honiara B and Honiara II are 355, 357, 355, 356 and 359 mm. Therefore, we may shift one time series vs. the other of 356 mm to obtain the composite record of Fig 1.



Starting from July 1994, the start of the Honiara B record, the rate of rise of sea levels increased up to April 2009 when it reached a maximum of 9.25 mm yr-1. The 15 years’ time window is insufficient.

After April 2009, the rate of rise since July 1994 started to decrease and it is now +5.50 mm yr-1. The time window of 21 years is still insufficient. Only focusing on Honiara B the only possible statement is the apparent rate of rise is +5.50 mm yr-1 (and not 7-10 mm yr-1) but this number is not significant.

Also including Honiara II, starting from December 1974 the rate of rise is +2.81 mm yr-1. The time window is now 42 years long, still insufficient, but certainly more reasonable. Considering 60-70 years of data are needed to start understanding a trend in sea levels, very likely these +2.81 mm yr-1 are still an overestimation of the relative rate of rise.

The editorial board and the reviewers should certainly pay more attention to extravagant claims of sea level rises of 10 mm yr-1 that are based on short cherry-picked periods.

[Lumberjack]

Appears somebody lied with their other thread.

[Leonthecat]

Five Pacific islands lost to rising seas as climate change hits
Six more islands have large swaths of land, and villages, washed into sea as coastline of Solomon Islands eroded and overwhelmed

The remains of one of six partially eroded islands in the Solomons.
The remains of one of six partially eroded islands in the Solomons. Photograph: HANDOUT/Reuters
Reuters
Tuesday 10 May 2016 09.02 EDT Last modified on Tuesday 10 May 2016 09.36 EDT
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Five tiny Pacific islands have disappeared due to rising seas and erosion, a discovery thought to be the first scientific confirmation of the impact of climate change on coastlines in the Pacific, according to Australian researchers.


Sea levels set to 'rise far more rapidly than expected'

The submerged islands were part of the Solomon Islands, an archipelago that over the last two decades has seen annual sea levels rise as much as 10mm (0.4in), according to research published in the May issue of the online journal Environmental Research Letters.

The missing islands, ranging in size from 1 to 5 hectares (2.5-12.4 acres) were not inhabited by humans.

But six other islands had large swaths of land washed into the sea and on two of those, entire villages were destroyed and people forced to relocate, the researchers found.

Many of the Solomon Islands are low-lying and prone to flooding from rising seas.

Many of the Solomon Islands are low-lying and prone to flooding from rising seas. Photograph: BBC NHU/Jon Clay/BBC NHU
One was Nuatambu island, home to 25 families, which has lost 11 houses and half its inhabitable area since 2011, the research said.

The study is the first that scientifically “confirms the numerous anecdotal accounts from across the Pacific of the dramatic impacts of climate change on coastlines and people,” the researchers wrote in a separate commentary on an academic website.

The scientists used aerial and satellite images dating back to 1947 of 33 islands, as well as traditional knowledge and radiocarbon dating of trees for their findings.


James Lovelock: 'enjoy life while you can: in 20 years global warming will hit the fan'

The Solomon Islands, a nation made up of hundreds of islands and with a population of about 640,000, lies about 1,000 miles north-east of Australia.

The study raises questions about the role of government in relocation planning, said a Solomon Islands official.


Map of Nuatambu Island.
“This ultimately calls for support from development partners and international financial mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund,” Melchior Mataki, head of the Solomon Islands’ National Disaster Council, was quoted as saying in the commentary.

The Green Climate Fund, part of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, was founded to help countries deal with climate change.


Collapsing Greenland glacier could raise sea levels by half a metre, say scientists
Read more
In April, the Solomon Islands was among the 177 nations that signed a global agreement reached in Paris to curb climate change.

Ad hoc relocation has occurred on the islands, the study said. Several Nuatambu islanders moved to a neighbouring, higher volcanic island, the study said. Other people were forced to move from the island of Nararo.

Sirilo Sutaroti, 94, is among those who had to relocate from Nararo. He told researchers: “The sea has started to come inland, it forced us to move up to the hilltop and rebuild our village there away from the sea.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/10/five-pacific-islands-lost-rising-seas-climate-change

Poor Borbo

[cancel2 2022]

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/10/five-pacific-islands-lost-rising-seas-climate-change

Leon the Twat does that same non-clickable shit as Legion with URLs, what do that tell you?

[Lumberjack]

Previous research of islands in the Pacific has found that shoreline changes were caused by a mix of extreme events, seawalls and inappropriate coastal development rather than sea-level rises alone.

Ha ha, they're now changing their "science" and blaming climate change.

[Lumberjack]

Leon the Twat does that same non-clickable shit as Legion with URLs, what do that tell you?

They post virtually identical. If anyone doesn't think they are a sock, they should have their head examined. Leo is just a thread filler for Legion/MOD.

[CFM]

Leon the Twat does that same non-clickable shit as Legion with URLs, what do that tell you?

He's Troll's bitch.

[Lumberjack]

He's Troll's bitch.

You mean sock?

[CFM]

You mean sock?

He's a sock that plays the roll of Troll's bitch. One in the same in that situation.

[Leonthecat]

Leon the Twat does that same non-clickable shit as Legion with URLs, what do that tell you?

Poor Borbo

[CFM]

Poor Borbo

Poor baby.

[Leonthecat]

Poor baby.

Borbo is not a baby!

[Lumberjack]

He's a sock that plays the roll of Troll's bitch. One in the same in that situation.

Lol, poor Socktard

[Celticguy]

Previous research of islands in the Pacific has found that shoreline changes were caused by a mix of extreme events, seawalls and inappropriate coastal development rather than sea-level rises alone.

Ha ha, they're now changing their "science" and blaming climate change.

They're trying. Only works on the gullible.

[cancel2 2022]

Sinking Solomon Islands and climate link 'exaggerated', admits study's author