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Thread: Have Republicans overestimated the conservatism of the base?

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    Default Have Republicans overestimated the conservatism of the base?

    Interesting National Review article on the breakdown of the Republican voter, especially in the South. Liberals mention the Southern Strategy quite a bit but I didn't realize the how many Governors and state congresses were held by Democrats in the South until just recently.

    It's basically saying many of these voters aren't strict limited government types nor constitutional conservatives and that's why someone like Trump has been able to make inroads.




    Republicans Have Overestimated the Conservatism of the Base

    I live in Donald Trump country. Maury County, Tenn. — like much of the South — was dominated by the Democratic party until just a few short years ago. Tennessee’s legislature didn’t flip red until 2008, and my own legislative district in my own “conservative” county was blue until 2010. Tennessee didn’t change dramatically between 2004 (when Democrats were in total control of state government) and 2011 (when control flipped to Republicans), but national politics changed. And — as Donald Trump is proving — they can change again.

    If there is a consistent refrain among former Democrats (and there are lots in the South), it echoes Ronald Reagan: They didn’t leave the Democratic party; the Democratic party left them. That means many things, but it does not mean that they’re small government, constitutional conservatives. It means that while they may have been attitudinally “Tea Party,” they were never on board with the core substance of the movement.

    So, what do my Trump-supporting neighbors prioritize? It’s a reasonable approximation of the “three-legged stool” of Reagan Republicanism, but with important philosophical distinctions from true movement conservatives.

    First, there’s patriotism, but it’s not a patriotism that implies or mandates a particular foreign policy or national-security philosophy. It’s embodied in a deep love for this country and a desire to defeat its enemies, but no particular commitment either to intervention or isolationism. They’re repulsed by the Left’s mindless multiculturalism and elite’s disdain for America, but they’re foreign-policy pragmatists. Fight when it’s smart, and don’t let political correctness get in the way of national defense.

    As the New York Times noted, a significant portion of Trump’s support comes from “a certain kind of Democrat.” Next, there’s cultural conservatism, but it’s not the cultural conservatism of the evangelical Right. In other words, they don’t really care what anyone else does with their lives, but they’re unwilling to join the sexual revolution either personally or politically. They’re not crusaders in either direction, but they perceive the Left as attempting to draft them into a movement they find personally distasteful. When Bill Clinton said abortion should be “safe, legal, and rare,” he was tapping into this mindset — speaking to those who dislike abortion but aren’t willing to place it at the centerpiece of their politics.

    Finally, there’s a commitment to economic opportunity, but it’s not embodied by intellectual devotion either to free markets or to small government. You won’t hear former Democrats crying out for social-security reform or changes to Medicare — unless those changes make the system more stable and reliable. And southern voters have proven that they’re more than willing to hand out generous, targeted tax breaks and subsidies to pull manufacturing out of the North or to welcome Japanese automakers to their new, union-free homes in Dixie. Call it “corporate welfare” all you want, but these new Republicans simply don’t care.

    Immigration is a potent political issue because it hits each of these concerns. The patriot worries about the impact on national security. The cultural conservative is concerned about assimilation and contemptuous of the Left’s reassuring multicultural platitudes. And a flood of low-skill workers depresses wages and limits economic opportunity and stability. Combine these concerns with the South’s (and industrial North’s) longstanding willingness to embrace colorful, larger-than-life political figures, and it’s easy to see why Trump’s support map looks like this:

    New York Times Trump Support Map Indeed, as the New York Times noted, a significant portion of Trump’s support comes from “a certain kind of Democrat,” and he currently stands ready to pull up to 20 percent of Democratic support from Hillary Clinton.

    More Donald Trump Thanks to Lawsuit, Cruz's Eligibility to Continue Being Stupid Issue We Have to Talk About House GOP Gets Its 'Bold Conservative Agenda' as Fear of Cruz Nomination Grows On Economic and Social Issues, Trump Is No Conservative The GOP underestimated Trump in part because it overestimated the conservatism of its own southern, rural northern, and Midwestern base. It underestimated the extent to which many of its voters hadn’t so much embraced the corporate conservatism of the Chamber of Commerce or the constitutional conservatism of the Tea Party as much as they had rejected the extremism of the increasingly shrill and politically correct Left. And, yes, the size of this population calls into question the very process of building a national Republican electoral majority, but it also threatens Democrats who seem intent on drumming every blue-collar white male straight out of the party.

    At present, Donald Trump’s greatest electoral danger (at least in the GOP primary) is that his supporters are so alienated from both parties that they disproportionately choose to stay home. But if they turn out, and he can escape with a win in Iowa, the early primary calendar is largely a march through Trump country. America may end up with three distinct ideological movements: the progressive Left, the constitutional Right, and populist core that will now say of both political parties: I didn’t leave you. You left me.


    http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...s-conservatism

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    This is a great read. A lot of truth there too. I remember when we had several democrats who could be counted on to be elected. We have voted nationally for the republican presidential candidate since 1968 I think. But during much of that time we were largely a democratic governed state, especially down here in my corner.

    Sadly, the further left the Democratic Party on the national scale drifted the more democrats here changed their affiliation and became republicans. To tell you how new this is, the first republican senator to carry my 5 county corner of the state was .... Jim Inhofe.

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    Default Have Republicans overestimated the conservatism of the base?

    Deshtard and Malikchristiefan still think you are racist

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    I also find this a good and informative read and very similar to thinking that I've held for some time now. Southern Democrats, and there are many, aren't very keen on large interventionist government. And they're not into the paranoia and hate that the Republicans demonstrate so often and so clearly. It will certainly be more interesting in the next 40 or so years to see just how this all works out in the national political debate. One thing is for certain. "Conservatism" as it is known today is a present or soon to be dinosaur.

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    Good article that raises several good points; particularly, the fact that 'Trump democrats' [I knew it was coming, I called it in July or August lol] are a pretty diverse species.

    Another good point, though I think it's rather obvious, is that the national Democrat party has lurched so far to the left that they risk alienating their own base. It's truly amazing how far they've gone. JFK wouldn't recognize the party and I doubt his own party would have him, if he were around today.

    He'd probably have to run as a Republican.

    But it explains why Trump could attract so many Democrats. He would have been a great Democrat as recently as 15 or 20 years ago but the Obama-Pelosi wing has gone off the deep end and taken the DNC with it.
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    OMG this piece misses the elephant completely. Can you see the elephant?

    Once again oligarchy rules the mind of right wing apologist. I haven't the time to pick out how ridiculous this OP is but does anyone know what happened in 2008?

    As far as the Japanese building a few cars in the South, so what, that is hardly manufacturing or a great job creator, drive through the south sometime. And think Walmart and China.

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    Default Have Republicans overestimated the conservatism of the base?

    I laugh how leftists consider themselves these great arbiters of freedom yet they advocate turning more and more of their lives of to the government.


    I have concluded that leftists just want to be free to fuck and get high without any responsibility. In short they are like children who want to play video games while mom and and pay all the bills and fix al, their boo boos

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    Trump democrats wtf? Man this election is fucking weird


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    Quote Originally Posted by leaningright View Post
    This is a great read. A lot of truth there too. I remember when we had several democrats who could be counted on to be elected. We have voted nationally for the republican presidential candidate since 1968 I think. But during much of that time we were largely a democratic governed state, especially down here in my corner.

    Sadly, the further left the Democratic Party on the national scale drifted the more democrats here changed their affiliation and became republicans. To tell you how new this is, the first republican senator to carry my 5 county corner of the state was .... Jim Inhofe.
    I think it's a nice try. He starts out with an honest analysis that makes some good points and ends up with a generalization that's just simply not true. Let me ask you this, do you consider your self a progressive liberal, in the constitutional right wing or part of a populist core? I'm none of those. Are you?

    Those are just convenient shoe horns because the author couldn't tie the shoe strings of his analysis together.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mott the Hoople View Post
    I think it's a nice try. He starts out with an honest analysis that makes some good points and ends up with a generalization that's just simply not true. Let me ask you this, do you consider your self a progressive liberal, in the constitutional right wing or part of a populist core? I'm none of those. Are you?

    Those are just convenient shoe horns because the author couldn't tie the shoe strings of his analysis together.
    You may not fit into one of those three groups but does that not mean there aren't large numbers of people in those groups?

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    Quote Originally Posted by cawacko View Post
    You may not fit into one of those three groups but does that not mean there aren't large numbers of people in those groups?
    Do you fit into one of those groups?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Trump democrats wtf? Man this election is fucking weird
    I'm telling you, his support comes from the angry middle, some of those would be Dems... Populist nonsense is attractive to people and there is a real chance this classless rich guy will be your next President.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mott the Hoople View Post
    Do you fit into one of those groups?
    Yes, the corporate conservatism of the chamber of commerce. (there are definitely times I disagree with the chambers support of corporate welfare but I do fit into that group)

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    Quote Originally Posted by cawacko View Post
    Yes, the corporate conservatism of the chamber of commerce. (there are definitely times I disagree with the chambers support of corporate welfare but I do fit into that group)
    Let me ask you this then as someone who is not a progressive liberal, a right wing constitutionalist (or a corporate apologist), or a populist. How much of this alienation of this group that for lack of a better term I'll call "Trump Supporters" is due to a lack of these peoples ability to adapt to change?

    In the last 50 years there has been a sea change in the American landscape, politically, economically and culturally.

    Let's start with the culturally. The Demographics our nation has changed dramatically in the last 50 years. We are a far less homogenous nation than we were 50 years ago. We are less white, less religious (though still far more religious than most developed nations), older and more urban than we were 50 years ago.

    Then there's the change in the political landscape. Fifty years ago political power was almost completely the province of white, older males. That's no longer the case. Now minorities, such as, blacks, latinos, women and our youth have real political power where as fifty years ago they had very little if any. These minorities exercising political power today is common place. Fifty years ago it was not.

    Then there's the economic change in which our nations economy has switched from a manufacturing based economy to a service based economy, that is to say, a knowledge based economy. Advances in technology has emphasized this sea change where producing knowledge and technology has become more important to economic progress than producing goods and that this knowledge based economy is spread far beyond our borders intertwining us and making us interdependent on a world economy.

    I would argue that what the author has missed and failed to tie in with his analysis that many of these "Trump Supporters" are people, predominantly aging, white and working class, who have struggled the most to adapt to these changes. Whether it's adapting to changing demographics, sharing political power with political minorities or adapting to a knowledge based economy or a combination of all three.

    This difficulty in adapting to the major historical changes in our nation over the last fifty years provides a more workable model to explain this polities sense of alienation and the so called "Flip" in regions where we see Democrats (liberals) succeeding at the national level but Republicans (conservatives) succeeding at the local and State level.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mott the Hoople View Post
    Let me ask you this then as someone who is not a progressive liberal, a right wing constitutionalist (or a corporate apologist), or a populist. How much of this alienation of this group that for lack of a better term I'll call "Trump Supporters" is due to a lack of these peoples ability to adapt to change?

    In the last 50 years there has been a sea change in the American landscape, politically, economically and culturally.

    Let's start with the culturally. The Demographics our nation has changed dramatically in the last 50 years. We are a far less homogenous nation than we were 50 years ago. We are less white, less religious (though still far more religious than most developed nations), older and more urban than we were 50 years ago.

    Then there's the change in the political landscape. Fifty years ago political power was almost completely the province of white, older males. That's no longer the case. Now minorities, such as, blacks, latinos, women and our youth have real political power where as fifty years ago they had very little if any. These minorities exercising political power today is common place. Fifty years ago it was not.

    Then there's the economic change in which our nations economy has switched from a manufacturing based economy to a service based economy, that is to say, a knowledge based economy. Advances in technology has emphasized this sea change where producing knowledge and technology has become more important to economic progress than producing goods and that this knowledge based economy is spread far beyond our borders intertwining us and making us interdependent on a world economy.

    I would argue that what the author has missed and failed to tie in with his analysis that many of these "Trump Supporters" are people, predominantly aging, white and working class, who have struggled the most to adapt to these changes. Whether it's adapting to changing demographics, sharing political power with political minorities or adapting to a knowledge based economy or a combination of all three.

    This difficulty in adapting to the major historical changes in our nation over the last fifty years provides a more workable model to explain this polities sense of alienation and the so called "Flip" in regions where we see Democrats (liberals) succeeding at the national level but Republicans (conservatives) succeeding at the local and State level.

    I think a huge part to do with it is this shift from a manufacturing economy to the information economy. We all know back in the '50's and '60's one could have a high school diploma only and lead a very middle class life. That is much harder to do today. One of the ironies of winning the Cold War and defeating communism is it brought millions and millions of new workers into the global marketplace to the detriment of some American workers. It is to those people that populist sentiments seem to work best.

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