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Thread: Projections for Tuesday Night

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    Default Projections for Tuesday Night

    I'll update this on Tuesday morning, but at this point I'm feeling pretty confident. Please post your projections as well, and refrain from attacking others - I want to keep this thread civil and on-topic.

    51.8% / 315 EV Romney
    47.0% / 223 EV Obama
    1.2% Other

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=ZOh

    I do believe Romney will ultimately win Pennsylvania by a narrow margin. I'm fully aware the polling lends no credence to this prediction, but I feel the momentum building for such a victory.

    Mod: can you pin this?
    "We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power." -O'Brien, Nineteen Eighty-Four

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    If Obama does win, I believe it will look something like this:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=ZQn

    But Romney is almost certain to win the popular vote regardless.
    "We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power." -O'Brien, Nineteen Eighty-Four

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    Default

    dream away little dreamer

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    Quote Originally Posted by Voltaire View Post
    If Obama does win, I believe it will look something like this:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=ZQn

    But Romney is almost certain to win the popular vote regardless.
    And we know, popular means nothing, it is all about the electoral vote!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rana View Post
    And we know, popular means nothing, it is all about the electoral vote!
    So you guys are on record now of loving the Electoral College? Just want to make sure. I remember in 2000 you guys weren't such a big fan. Even Obama and Hillary wanted to do away with it.

    Are you sure you like it now?

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    Default

    I still think the EC is fucking stupid, but will gladly accept the results when Obama wins. Hopefully, that gets Republicans on board with the national popular vote act.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dungheap View Post
    I still think the EC is fucking stupid, but will gladly accept the results when Obama wins. Hopefully, that gets Republicans on board with the national popular vote act.
    I actually agree with this. I think it's time to ditch the EC.
    "We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power." -O'Brien, Nineteen Eighty-Four

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    Default

    47.1 - President Obama
    47.9 - Romney
    5.0 - Other

    Electoral:

    281 - Obama
    257 - Romney

    Obama winning Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire

    Romney getting Florida, Virginia and Colorado
    4,487

    18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
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    LOCK HIM UP!

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    Quote Originally Posted by evince View Post
    dream away little dreamer
    Hey Desh, can you post your prediction? Go to this site:

    http://www.270towin.com/

    Make your prediction, click the Share Map button (right under Florida) and copy/paste the link it generates. See attached pic.


    270.jpg
    "We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power." -O'Brien, Nineteen Eighty-Four

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarod View Post
    5.0 - Other
    I would be very surprised if third party candidates garner 5% of the vote. We'll see, though.
    "We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power." -O'Brien, Nineteen Eighty-Four

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    Actually Jarod your prediction is an interesting one. It accepts the fact that Obama's ceiling is probably around 47%, but denies Romney a popular vote majority, instead arbitrarily assigning a relatively large chunk of the popular vote to third party candidates.

    Granted, anyone's projection is inevitably tainted by some degree of wishful thinking - including mine. You could most certainly turn out to be correct, but I would tend to doubt it. Johnson, Stein, et al don't have the momentum to garner 5%.
    "We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power." -O'Brien, Nineteen Eighty-Four

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dungheap View Post
    I still think the EC is fucking stupid, but will gladly accept the results when Obama wins. Hopefully, that gets Republicans on board with the national popular vote act.
    I hate the EC system and want to switch to the popular vote. However, if Obama were to win the EC and lose the popular vote, I would laugh my ass off. Here's why.

    What no republican will talk about is that in the runup to the 2000 election, the republicans privately believed that Bush might win the Popular vote and lose the EC. They made plans to revolt and refuse to concede because Bush winning the popular vote made him President. THis is all public record, but it amazes me how little it is discussed. It happened, it's public record, they were going to fight the electoral result.

    So we know for sure they would have done that this year if...Bush hadn't lost the popular vote. We know what they would have done. They told us. Will 2000 prevent them from doing just that this time? At this point, having watched Republican hypocrisy for so long, I really would not bet on that! So let the fireworks begin.

    Finally, regardless of how they win, Republicans simply never accept Democrats as legitimately elected President. In 08 they pushed their Acorn stole the election horseshit and with CLinton they claimed that both times he did not get 50% percent of the vote he was not legit.

    So really, what difference does it make whether Obam wins the popular vote or not? If he is reelected, they will squeal like stuck pigs from now till doomsday.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Voltaire View Post
    Actually Jarod your prediction is an interesting one. It accepts the fact that Obama's ceiling is probably around 47%, but denies Romney a popular vote majority, instead arbitrarily assigning a relatively large chunk of the popular vote to third party candidates.

    Granted, anyone's projection is inevitably tainted by some degree of wishful thinking - including mine. You could most certainly turn out to be correct, but I would tend to doubt it. Johnson, Stein, et al don't have the momentum to garner 5%.
    I know a lot of otherwise Republicans voting for Johnson.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darla View Post
    I hate the EC system and want to switch to the popular vote. However, if Obama were to win the EC and lose the popular vote, I would laugh my ass off. Here's why.

    What no republican will talk about is that in the runup to the 2000 election, the republicans privately believed that Bush might win the Popular vote and lose the EC. They made plans to revolt and refuse to concede because Bush winning the popular vote made him President. THis is all public record, but it amazes me how little it is discussed. It happened, it's public record, they were going to fight the electoral result.

    So we know for sure they would have done that this year if...Bush hadn't lost the popular vote. We know what they would have done. They told us. Will 2000 prevent them from doing just that this time? At this point, having watched Republican hypocrisy for so long, I really would not bet on that! So let the fireworks begin.

    Finally, regardless of how they win, Republicans simply never accept Democrats as legitimately elected President. In 08 they pushed their Acorn stole the election horseshit and with CLinton they claimed that both times he did not get 50% percent of the vote he was not legit.

    So really, what difference does it make whether Obam wins the popular vote or not? If he is reelected, they will squeal like stuck pigs from now till doomsday.
    I remember that.
    4,487

    18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
    44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.


    LOCK HIM UP!

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    I am actually starting to come around to changing it. But I am concerned a change might lead to some unintended consequences.
    Leviticus 19:33 And if a stranger sojourn with thee in your land, ye shall not do him wrong. 34 The stranger that sojourneth with you shall be unto you as the homeborn among you, and thou shalt love him as thyself; for ye were strangers in the land of Egypt: I am the LORD your God.

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