Don Quixote (09-28-2012)
I'm hoping for serious thought among the inevitable partisan humor. :0)
If the current trend holds up, Obama will be re-elected. It would mean that republicans couldn't even beat the black guy with a foreign sounding name and a bad record .. who, according to most republicans, isn't even an American or a christian.
To compound the dilemna that republicans find themselves in, their base is shrinking, and by 2016 they'll have an even less chance of winning national elections than they do now.
One thing for sure, they do not have the ability to conform and adapt to changing demographics and social evolution. Without that ability, their future as a viable counter-balance to the Democratic Party does not look good.
What I predict is a fracturing of the party. The Tea Party wing of the party cannot get along with anything other than themselves. Moderate republicans will have the example of their failures to once again have a voice in the party. I predict that they will fracture, and a third party will emerge on the right.
Thoughts?
AMERICAN HISTORY ITSELF IS A TESTAMENT TO THE STRENGTH AND RESILIENCE OF AFRICAN PEOPLE. WE, ALONG WITH THE COURGE AND SACRIFICES OF CONSCIOUS WHITE AMERICANS, LIKE VIOLA LIUZZO, EVERETT DIRKSEN, AND MANY OTHERS, HAVE FOUGHT AND DIED TOGETHER FOR OUR FREEDOM, AND FOR OUR SURVIVAL.
In America, rights are are not determined by what is just, fair, equitable, honest, nor by what Jesus would do. Rights are determined ONLY by what you can DEMAND.
Don Quixote (09-28-2012)
I think they'll double down on the crazy train. Something like this: Romney wasn't conservative enough. They need a real conservative to carry a real conservative message if they want to win. Look at the 2010 midterms. They didn't win by being New England Republicans, they won by being unashamed right-wing conservatives.
The Dude (09-27-2012)
They won because everyone else stayed home. I take issue with the term conservative when used for these people. Otherwise I agree with you...the crazy clown car will continue down the road always turning right. They will leave the GOP. I really don't see the Republicans changing very much but I haven't given it much thought.
Stupid, paranoid, and armed is a bad combination.
Christianity: Sending telepathic messages to a Jewish ghost letting him know that you will accept him as your master and ask him to remove a magical curse that was passed down to you because an old woman that was made from the rib of her partner ate a piece of magical fruit from a magical tree because a talking snake told her to.
Ask me again why I'm an atheist?
Althea (09-28-2012)
4,487
18 U.S. Code § 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
44 U.S.C. 2202 - The United States shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession, and control of Presidential records; and such records shall be administered in accordance with the provisions of this chapter.
LOCK HIM UP!
AMERICAN HISTORY ITSELF IS A TESTAMENT TO THE STRENGTH AND RESILIENCE OF AFRICAN PEOPLE. WE, ALONG WITH THE COURGE AND SACRIFICES OF CONSCIOUS WHITE AMERICANS, LIKE VIOLA LIUZZO, EVERETT DIRKSEN, AND MANY OTHERS, HAVE FOUGHT AND DIED TOGETHER FOR OUR FREEDOM, AND FOR OUR SURVIVAL.
In America, rights are are not determined by what is just, fair, equitable, honest, nor by what Jesus would do. Rights are determined ONLY by what you can DEMAND.
FUCK THE POLICE (09-27-2012)
I'm guessing you have evidence to support this claim?who, according to most republicans, isn't even an American
"We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power." -O'Brien, Nineteen Eighty-Four
you win some elections, you lose some elections. Just because one side loses an election doesn't mean a paradigm shift is underway.
PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are more than twice as likely to identify themselves as conservative rather than liberal on economic issues, 46% to 20%. The gap is narrower on social issues, but conservatives still outnumber liberals, 38% to 28%.
On social issues, conservatism has risen by 7% in the last year:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154889/nearly-half-identify-economically-conservative.aspx
Independents -- who make up the largest political group in the country -- have been steadier ideologically than either major party group over the last decade. However, since 2008, the proportion describing themselves as moderate has declined slightly, from 46% to 41%, and the proportion who are conservative has increased slightly, from 30% to 35%.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152021/conservatives-remain-largest-ideological-group.aspx
Now, obviously, self identification isn't everything. I am sure there are some liberal dumbasses out there that consider themselves conservative. But overall, people recognize what "economically conservative" means and know what "socially conservative" means. Both have been on the rise for quite some time. Unions got crushed in wisconsin.
Obama may win the election, but it wont be because of a paradigm shift.
Rationalist (09-27-2012)
Grind is correct. How many times has your question been asked throughout history, I wonder? Both parties have probably said the other party is "finished" several times. It is never true. If Obama wins this election, there's a good chance the GOP will win in '16. Round and 'round it goes.
"We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power." -O'Brien, Nineteen Eighty-Four
AMERICAN HISTORY ITSELF IS A TESTAMENT TO THE STRENGTH AND RESILIENCE OF AFRICAN PEOPLE. WE, ALONG WITH THE COURGE AND SACRIFICES OF CONSCIOUS WHITE AMERICANS, LIKE VIOLA LIUZZO, EVERETT DIRKSEN, AND MANY OTHERS, HAVE FOUGHT AND DIED TOGETHER FOR OUR FREEDOM, AND FOR OUR SURVIVAL.
In America, rights are are not determined by what is just, fair, equitable, honest, nor by what Jesus would do. Rights are determined ONLY by what you can DEMAND.
Mott the Hoople (09-27-2012)
Conservative / liberal both can mean anything one wants it to mean.
African-Americans consider themselves conservative. How many do you think are going to vote for republicans?
The difference here and the shift comes from changing population demographics.
The U.S., soon to be majority-minority
Non-Hispanic whites still make up the majority in America but they won't much longer. Census figures show the two largest states, California and Texas, already are majority-minority; so are 22 of the 100 largest metro areas. Writer J.W. Anderson asks: Are citizens prepared for such a major change? Are politicians? Is the press?
Try this thought experiment: Imagine a community in which most of the taxpayers are white and in upper middle age, while most of the small children are Hispanic, Asian or black. And in this community, the issue is the budget for early childhood education. Is the school tax more likely to go up, or down?
Imagine, further, that the white taxpayers understand that, as those kids grow up and reach voting age, the political power in the community is going to shift sharply to them. Does that make the decision easier, or more difficult?
There you have a miniature model, simplified but accurate, of the United States as it is reflected in the 2010 Census. It helps explain the behavior of the political system as it struggles with the tensions being generated by rapid change in the American population. Wide areas of this country, including both of the two most populous states, are now what the statisticians call minority-majority – meaning that the accustomed majority group, non- Hispanic whites, are fewer than half of their people.
The most important political documents of the year are, arguably, the reports on the 2010 Census. The national figures came out last winter, and the Census Bureau is now publishing data at the level of counties and congressional districts. (For an introduction, see this interactive map.)
Nationwide, non-Hispanic whites are still a large majority – but not so large as they used to be. They were 69.1 per cent of the population in the 2000 Census, but 63.7 per cent 10 years later. In California, the state with the most people and often a leader in social trends, non-Hispanic whites are 40.1 per cent. In Texas, second-largest, they are 45.3 per cent.
The major reason for this massive change is birth rates. Among non-Hispanic whites, birth rates have dropped to a point barely above the replacement level – similar to the spectacular drops, incidentally, in the European countries from which most of this population originally came. Birth rates are much higher among the minorities, especially among Hispanics.
Analyzing the Census numbers, the Pew Hispanic Center recently reported that while the increase of the Hispanic population in this country was mainly fed by immigration as recently as the 1990s, the pattern shifted in the past decade when the growth was, by a wide margin, due to children born here.
In the decade from 2000 to 2010, the country’s total population grew 9.7 per cent. But the non-Hispanic white population grew only 1.2 per cent. In the same 10 years, the Hispanic population grew 43.0 per cent. The Asian population grew 43.3 per cent. The African American population grew at a rate closer to the national average, 12.3 per cent.
To get a sense of the future trend, look at the age profile. Americans over the age of 55 are now about 77 per cent non-Hispanic white. But, as William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution pointed out earlier this year, the 2010 Census shows that more than half of American three-year-olds are now minority. It means that if immigration went to zero tomorrow, and the birth rates of the respective ethnic and racial groups continued unchanged, the non-Hispanic white majority would disappear within several decades.
more at link
http://www.niemanwatchdog.org/index....&askthisid=535
If you think republicans aren't pondering this same question, you would be wrong.
AMERICAN HISTORY ITSELF IS A TESTAMENT TO THE STRENGTH AND RESILIENCE OF AFRICAN PEOPLE. WE, ALONG WITH THE COURGE AND SACRIFICES OF CONSCIOUS WHITE AMERICANS, LIKE VIOLA LIUZZO, EVERETT DIRKSEN, AND MANY OTHERS, HAVE FOUGHT AND DIED TOGETHER FOR OUR FREEDOM, AND FOR OUR SURVIVAL.
In America, rights are are not determined by what is just, fair, equitable, honest, nor by what Jesus would do. Rights are determined ONLY by what you can DEMAND.
Mott the Hoople (09-27-2012)
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