Oil prices are now higher than they have ever been—except for a few frenzied moments before the global economic meltdown of 2008.
Many immediate factors are contributing to this surge, including Iran's threats to block oil shipping in the Persian Gulf, fears of a new Middle Eastern war, and turmoil in energy-rich Nigeria.
Some of these pressures could ease in the months ahead, providing temporary relief at the gas pump.
But the principal cause of higher prices—a fundamental shift in the structure of the oil industry—cannot be reversed, and so oil prices are destined to remain high for a long time to come.
In energy terms, we are now entering a world whose grim nature has yet to be fully grasped.
This pivotal shift has been brought about by the disappearance of relatively accessible and inexpensive petroleum— "easy oil," in the parlance of industry analysts; in other words, the kind of oil that powered a staggering expansion of global wealth over the past 65 years and the creation of endless car-oriented suburban communities. This oil is now nearly gone.
The world still harbors large reserves of petroleum, but these are of the hard-to-reach, hard-to-refine, "tough oil" variety. From now on, every barrel we consume will be more costly to extract, more costly to refine—and so more expensive at the gas pump.
Propagandists for the oil industry usually fail to emphasize that not all oil reservoirs are alike: some are located close to the surface or near to shore, and are contained in soft, porous rock; others are located deep underground, far offshore, or trapped in unyielding rock formations. The former sites are relatively easy to exploit and yield a liquid fuel that can readily be refined into usable liquids; the latter can only be exploited through costly, environmentally hazardous techniques, and often result in a product which must be heavily processed before refining can even begin.
The simple truth of the matter is this: most of the world's easy reserves have already been depleted—except for those in war-torn countries like Iraq.
Virtually all of the oil that's left is contained in harder-to-reach, tougher reserves. These include deep-offshore oil, Arctic oil, and shale oil, along with Canadian "oil sands"—which are not composed of oil at all, but of mud, sand, and tar-like bitumen.
So-called unconventional reserves of these types can be exploited, but often at a staggering price, not just in dollars but also in damage to the environment.
In the oil business, this reality was first acknowledged by the chairman and CEO of Chevron, David O'Reilly. "One thing is clear," he wrote, "the era of easy oil is over." Not only were many existing oil fields in decline, he noted, but "new energy discoveries are mainly occurring in places where resources are difficult to extract, physically, economically, and even politically."
Tough-oil reserves like these will provide most of the world's new oil in the years ahead. One thing is clear: even if they can replace easy oil in our lives, the cost of everything oil-related—whether at the gas pump, in oil-based products, in fertilizers, in just about every nook and cranny of our lives—is going to rise.
Get used to it. If things proceed as presently planned, we will be in hock to big oil for decades to come.
And those are only the most obvious costs in a situation in which hidden costs abound, especially to the environment. As with the
Deepwater Horizon disaster, oil extraction in deep-offshore areas and other extreme geographical locations will ensure ever greater environmental risks.
So yes, there is oil out there. But no, it won't get cheaper, no matter how much there is. And yes, the oil companies can get it, but looked at realistically, who would want it?
http://motherjones.com/politics/2012...so-high?page=2
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