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Thread: The War in Ukraine Must End | nocoldwar.org

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    Default The War in Ukraine Must End | nocoldwar.org

    Found an article with the same name as this thread. I thought it was quite good and perhaps get a bit of discussion going. I'd like to say 2 things:

    Firstly, I don't agree that the west spending more money on weapons would simply be purposeless, I believe it is downright counterproductive to resolving the war, by giving some the false hope that this will make it so that Ukrainians will have a better hand by the time this war finally concludes. I believe the opposite, that the longer this war drags on, the more people will die, while Russia will probably gain more land and be more reluctant to give any of it up. There is already past precedent for this- at the start of Russia's military intervention, Russia had been prepared to leave all the territory it had gained after February 24, 2022 in exchange for certain very reasonable concessions. That is definitely no longer on the table.

    Secondly, I don't agree with part of the 2nd point that needs to be resolved- specifically, I don't think that Russia will be giving up most if not all of the territory it's gained in the 4 regions of Ukraine that had referendums as to whether they'd like to join Russia and wherein all ostensibly majority voted to join Russia. With that said, below are some quotes from parts of the article:

    **
    February 19, 2024

    Two years ago, on 24 February 2022, Russian forces entered Ukraine. This act was not the start of the war in Ukraine. Rather, it was the acceleration of a conflict that dates back to at least 2014. That year, at the behest of the United States, a new government was imposed on Ukraine, aiming to bring the country closer to the European Union. This initiated the sustained persecution of the country’s Russian-speaking population. The conflict moved swiftly, with Crimea de facto becoming part of Russia once again and the Donbass region of Ukraine becoming a frontline in the conflict between Ukrainian far-right nationalists and Russian speakers. In May 2019, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took office and pledged to end the battle in the Donbass. Instead, due to pressure from NATO, the conflict intensified, eventually leading to the Russian intervention three years later. It is imperative for the people of Ukraine, Russia, and the world that the war be halted and that the issues be transferred from the battlefield to the negotiating table.

    What has been the impact of the war?

    In any conflict, casualty figures become a matter of dispute. However, there is little disagreement that over 500,000 Ukrainian and Russian soldiers have died or been injured in this war, that over six million Ukrainians have fled the country, and that over seven million Ukrainians have been internally displaced (out of a pre-war population of nearly 44 million). If the war is not brought to a halt, tens of thousands more will be killed and tens of millions more will suffer.

    Ukraine’s economy has been devastated, shrinking by 29% in 2022 alone, according to the World Bank. The impact of the war ricocheted across the globe, causing wheat prices to rise by 21% and some fertilisers to rise by 40% within the first month of the conflict. Global South countries were hit particularly hard by sharp increases in food and energy prices in many regions while the European economy inches towards a recession. In other countries, astronomic amounts of resources have been diverted to the war which instead could have been used for social and economic spending. The US and Europe have already spent well over $200 billion on the war. In December 2023, the head of the Ukrainian armed forces asked US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin for a further $350–400 billion to pursue ‘victory’.

    In reality, no amount of money will lead to a military triumph. It is clear, particularly after the failure of the Ukrainian ‘counter-offensive’, that there has been no significant change in the military situation, nor is there a credible prospect of one. The continued payment of such huge human and economic costs would be purposeless.

    What issues need to be resolved?

    1. The position of Ukraine regarding military blocs.

    [snip]

    In December 2021, Russia proposed an agreement that Ukraine would not become a NATO member. In negotiations in March 2022, Ukraine proposed adopting a neutral status in exchange for security guarantees, inspired by NATO’s collective defence clause, which could have involved Poland, Israel, Turkey, and Canada as guarantors. This was blocked by NATO, directly conveyed by way of an urgent visit from British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to Ukraine in May 2022, thereby preventing a rapid end of the war.

    2. The position of the Russian-speaking minority in the territory of the Ukrainian state (as it was formed in 1991).


    [snip]

    There are only two ways to resolve this situation: restoration of the full linguistic and other rights of the Russian-speaking minority within the borders of the old Ukrainian state or the secession of these regions from Ukraine. Which outcome is realised will be a key subject of the negotiations. Nonetheless, it is clear that any attempt to maintain the Russian-speaking minority within the Ukrainian state while continuing to deprive them of their rights will not succeed, nor will any attempt by Russia to impose another state on the Ukrainian-speaking population of western and northern Ukraine.

    All efforts to resolve these issues by military means will continue to be futile and will only result in further intense suffering, above all for the Ukrainian people. These realities will become increasingly obvious if the war continues – which is why it must be brought to a halt as rapidly as possible and negotiations must commence.

    **

    Full article:
    Briefing: The War in Ukraine Must End | nocoldwar.org
    Last edited by Phoenyx; 02-25-2024 at 07:54 AM.
    "Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who find it" - Andre Gide

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    I found another recent article from Craig Murray. I'm pretty sure I've read at least one other article from him in the past, but until now, I didn't really know anything about him. I decided to change that and thought it might be enlightening for readers of this thread to also know some things about him. Quoting from the introduction of his Wikipedia article:

    **
    Craig John Murray (born 17 October 1958)[3][4][5] is a Scottish author, human rights campaigner,[6][7][8] journalist,[9][10][11] and former diplomat.

    While he was the British ambassador to Uzbekistan (2002–2004), he exposed the violations of human rights in that country by the Karimov administration. This led to conflict with his superiors in the Foreign Office until finally he was removed from the post.[12][13] Specifically, Murray lodged formal written complaints to his superiors stating that it was morally and legally wrong to obtain intelligence under torture and that intelligence received by the Secret Intelligence Service (and the US Central Intelligence Agency) from the Uzbek government was unreliable because it had been obtained through torture.[14]

    Subsequently he became a political activist, campaigning for human rights and for transparency in global politics as well as for the independence of Scotland. Between 2007 and 2010 he was the elected Rector of the University of Dundee.

    His books include two memoirs, first about his time in Central Asia, Murder in Samarkand (2006), and then The Catholic Orangemen of Togo: and other Conflicts I Have Known (2009), about his early career years in West Africa; and a historical biography, Sikunder Burnes: Master of the Great Game (2016), about Alexander Burnes and the rivalry between the 19th century British and Russian Empires over influence in Asia.

    **

    Returning to Murray's article, he came to the same conclusion as the one in the opening post, namely that the war in Ukraine should end sooner rather than later. Unlike the first article, I also feel he is more realistic concerning Russia's willingness to give up land it has gained during the war- like me, he believes that Russia would give up little if any and that this is not only inevitable, but desirable at this point. Quoting from the introduction and conclusion of his article:

    **
    Rethinking Ukraine: Putin and the Mystery of National Identity

    February 19, 2024

    The genocide in Gaza – or more precisely the major NATO powers’ active and practical support for the genocide in Gaza – has forced me to re-evaluate my views on Ukraine in a manner more sympathetic to the Russian narrative.

    In particular, I was complacent in my dismissive attitude to the argument that the Western powers would back ethnic cleansing and massacre in the Donbass, by forces including some motivated by Nazi ideology. The same powers who are funding and arming Ukraine are funding and arming a genocide by racial supremacist Israeli forces in Gaza. It is beyond argument that my belief in some kind of inherent decency in the Western political Establishment was naive.

    I apologise.


    [snip]

    I am aware I need to read more on the creation of national identity, because most of my thought is based on simple observation. It is however entirely plain that national identity can appear, and can be genuine, and can do so in a period of merely decades. There is now a Ukrainian national identity, and those who subscribe to it have the right to their state.

    That they have a right to the former boundaries of Soviet Ukraine is a different proposition. Given the reality that it is plain a significant minority of the population do not subscribe to Ukrainian national identity, that civil war broke out, and that this relates to historic geographic fracture lines, it seems that division of territory is now not only inevitable but desirable.

    All people of good will should therefore wish to see an end to fighting and a peace settlement, of which the territorial elements are somewhere close to the current lines between the forces, with Russia giving back some territory in return for recognition of its gains. The alternative is more death, human misery and economic malaise.

    **

    Full article:
    Rethinking Ukraine: Putin and the Mystery of National Identity | craigmurray.org.uk
    "Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who find it" - Andre Gide

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    All Russia has to do is withdraw from sovereign Ukrainian territory that doesn't belong to them, and the war could be over in 24 hours

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
    All Russia has to do is withdraw from sovereign Ukrainian territory that doesn't belong to them, and the war could be over in 24 hours
    From Russia's point of view, they have already done this. Russia claims land occupied by Ukraine.

    All Ukraine has to do is withdraw from sovereign Russian territory that doesn't belong to them, and this war could be over in 24 hours.
    Global Warming violates the 1st LoT by claiming a magical creation of thermal energy out of nothing, in the form of a temperature increase, which is somehow caused by a magical substance.
    Greenhouse Effect violates Stefan-Boltzmann and black body science by claiming that an increase in earth's temperature is somehow caused by a decrease in earth's radiance.
    Greenhouse Effect violates the 2nd LoT by claiming that the cooler atmosphere somehow heats the warmer earth's surface.

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    There is a very simple and easy way for the war in Ukraine to end.


    Russia can move all their troops to Russian soil and agree to a non-aggression pact
    "We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."

    "Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain - and most fools do."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
    All Russia has to do is withdraw from sovereign Ukrainian territory that doesn't belong to them, and the war could be over in 24 hours
    The term sovereign has various definitions. Here are a few from Merriam-Webster:

    **
    1a: one possessing or held to possess supreme political power or sovereignty
    b: one that exercises supreme authority within a limited sphere
    c: an acknowledged leader : ARBITER

    **

    When it comes to the territories within the 4 regions of Ukraine that Russia now controls, it's self evidence that Ukraine no longer possesses "supreme political power". Russia is clearly controlling these territories. Now, one can certainly argue that Ukraine should once again possess this territory, but based on the assessment of Craig Murray and myself, Russia will give back little if any of the territory they now possess.

    Now, the west can continue to our money and weapons in Ukraine and perhaps stave off Russia from taking much more land for a bit of time, but from what I've seen, it seems the best they can do is that. The longer this war lasts, the more likely that Russia was take even -more- land, and ofcourse money, lives and suffering from both sides will also be added to the toll.

    In summation, I think it's become more evident by the day that the western Ukrainian government has a losing hand and upping the ante will only mean they'll lose even more in the long run. It's time to fold the military angle and get the diplomatic table out.
    "Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who find it" - Andre Gide

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    The SMO will be over when NATO admits that it lost, and what remains of Ukraine agrees to be neutral, demilitarized, and the Banderas elements are removed from power. Odessa will be Russian, the status of Kiev might be negotiated but the Ukrainians are already expecting that it will not be the capital of the rump of Ukraine.
    I choose my own words like the Americans of olden times........before this dystopia arrived.

    DARK AGES SUCK!

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    China Bloc wants the Ukraine situation to be settled but that cant happen till the abusive West learns its lessons, and in the meantime in part because of Ukraine to include the sanctions the speed of the death of the West picks up, there is not a great hurry for the children who run the West to wise up.
    I choose my own words like the Americans of olden times........before this dystopia arrived.

    DARK AGES SUCK!

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    China has been very confident that they have America by the balls for several years....now Russia has the same confidence after watching NATO's bungling in Ukraine, the idiotic sanctions, and as they have watched America ramp up its abuse of the World even more.
    I choose my own words like the Americans of olden times........before this dystopia arrived.

    DARK AGES SUCK!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
    All Russia has to do is withdraw from sovereign Ukrainian territory that doesn't belong to them, and the war could be over in 24 hours
    Including the Crimea, which Obama/Biden gave to Russia (well, no doubt substantial bribes were involved) in 2014? And what of the coup that was promoted by Obiden/Hillary?
    Ignore List: Douche Duck the dog rapist, AKA doc dutch

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    The US imposed government =elected. Ukraine has been moving toward the West because they have a long and ugly history with Russia.Russia has always been expansionist, Obviously, they still are. Being next to a country like Russia does make you seek allies.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye10 View Post
    The SMO will be over when NATO admits that it lost, and what remains of Ukraine agrees to be neutral, demilitarized, and the Banderas elements are removed from power. Odessa will be Russian, the status of Kiev might be negotiated but the Ukrainians are already expecting that it will not be the capital of the rump of Ukraine.
    I don't think that NATO has to admit it lost. Technically, it was never an official part of the war in Ukraine. I do suspect that Ukraine will have to agree to be neutral. As to the Banderas elements, I'm not sure. What I definitely believe is that Russia won't stop lobbing artillery until what remains of Ukraine does the same. And right now, I believe that not only is Ukraine not stopping, but Zelensky still wants to take back all the territory it lost during Russia's Special Military Operation and wants to take the former Donbass Republics and Crimean too. It's a pipe dream, but he's still President, and unless he has a change of heart or he leaves office, I imagine the war will continue.
    "Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who find it" - Andre Gide

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye10 View Post
    China Bloc wants the Ukraine situation to be settled but that cant happen till the abusive West learns its lessons, and in the meantime in part because of Ukraine to include the sanctions the speed of the death of the West picks up, there is not a great hurry for the children who run the West to wise up.
    I'm not fan of Trump, but I can hope that if Trump wins, he'll make some agreement with Putin and the war will end. If Biden (or more likely whoever's pulling his strings) wins, I expect it'll keep on going until Ukraine runs out of artillery, soldiers, or both.
    "Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who find it" - Andre Gide

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye10 View Post
    China has been very confident that they have America by the balls for several years....now Russia has the same confidence after watching NATO's bungling in Ukraine, the idiotic sanctions, and as they have watched America ramp up its abuse of the World even more.
    I don't know how confident China or Russia are, but I definitely believe that the U.S. has been on a losing streak military wise for some time now. The military mouths the right words, "hearts and minds", but when push comes to shove, their main strategy seems to be "might is right". It works when you're mainly slaughtering civilians as in Gaza, but when up against a sophisticated military like Russia's, not so much.
    "Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who find it" - Andre Gide

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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncensored2008 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
    All Russia has to do is withdraw from sovereign Ukrainian territory that doesn't belong to them, and the war could be over in 24 hours
    Including the Crimea, which Obama/Biden gave to Russia (well, no doubt substantial bribes were involved) in 2014?
    Obama/Biden didn't give Crimea to Russia, Crimeans voted to rejoin Russia in a referendum and Russia accepted their request. Canadian-American journalist Eva Bartlett went to Crimea and asked the Crimeans all about what really happened prior to Russia rejoining Russia, quite a good article:

    Return to Russia: Crimeans tell the real story of the 2014 referendum and their lives since | Mint Press News

    Quote Originally Posted by Uncensored2008 View Post
    And what of the coup that was promoted by Obiden/Hillary?
    If you're talking about the 2014 Euromaidan coup, there we can agree to at least some extent. Biden does seem to play at least a peripheral role in it. A good article on the United States' involvement can be seen below, though this one doesn't mention Biden:

    Ukraine’s ‘biggest arms supplier’ orchestrated 2014 Maidan massacre, witnesses say | The GRAYZONE
    "Trust those who seek the truth, doubt those who find it" - Andre Gide

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