Patrick Lawrence: Why Are the Russians Retreating in Ukraine? | Scheerpost

[Phoenyx]

Nobody knows what is happening. The fog of war and lack of reporters in the field means each side can make claims. We will find out the truth after it ends.

I agree in part. There is certainly a scarcity of international reporters in the field, but there are some, at least on the Russian side. As you know, I greatly admire the work of Canadian American journalist Eva Bartlett, and there is also an American journalist named Patrick Lancaster that reports from the Russian side as well.

The problem with the Ukrainian side is that they allow almost no reporters on the front of any nationality. Instead, Ukrainian officials tell western reporters things and western reporters generally just parrot whatever they're told. The good news is that as the front line has changed, and thus who's in charge of the area, truths can be revealed. I remember some stories of alleged mass graves that, when Eva Bartlett went to investigate after the front line had changed, found out were outright lies. Here's an example:

Here’s what I found at the reported ‘mass grave’ near Mariupol | RT

[Phoenyx]

Just read the article from Patrick Lawrence [snip] Here's the introduction to the article:

**
November 12, 2022

The most opaque war in my lifetime and probably yours, the war we can hardly see because the reporting is so bad, just took an unexpected turn. [snip]

The war takes an unexpected turn that Putin did not warn the alt right about, so they claim the war is opaque?

Patrick Lawrence is not "alt right". He's anti deep state. He criticizes the Biden administration because they're the ones currently riding the deep state horse. When Trump was in power, he was just as cutting. Here's an article from February 2020 on Trump's handling of the Israeli palestinian conflict:

Patrick Lawrence: Trump's weakness for power | patricklawrence.us

The subtitle in the article:
**
Coercive might and money may be all that matter in Manhattan real estate. But they are bound to sink the president’s take-all-you-want “deal of the century” for Israel.
**

Maybe the problem is that Putin is just not a good source of information.

Ironically, I think the -reason- that Patrick Lawrence was caught off guard when Russia decided to retreat from Kherson city is because he wasn't looking at certain online Russian sources. I believe I remember another poster here commenting on the fact that online Russian sources had been commenting that Russia would be retreating from Kherson city soon. From what I've seen, Patrick prefers his sources to be western.

**
In the first 80 days of the Ukraine war, there was ten years of footage—an order of magnitude more.

He is working on an open-source narrative history of the war, and reckons it can be done “at what might be considered us intelligence standards”—a remarkable acceleration of military history.
**

https://www.economist.com/interactiv...war-in-ukraine

An interesting article. The second line you mentioned is actually part of a larger paragraph that I think bears mentioning in full, along with the previous one, and the one that followed:

**
In a recent talk, General Sir Jim Hockenhull, who ran British defence intelligence until 2022, compared old-fashioned intelligence to assembling a jigsaw puzzle without the lid, showing the complete picture, or all the pieces. “What’s happening with open source is that we still don’t have the lid…but what we have is an almost infinite number of jigsaw pieces.” The result, he said, was that one could assemble “an almost infinite number of pictures”.

That creates “splintered realities”, says Mr Ford. He is working on an open-source narrative history of the war, and reckons it can be done “at what might be considered us intelligence standards”—a remarkable acceleration of military history. But he acknowledges that the infinite jigsaw poses serious challenges. One is the problem of self-deception: seeing the war “as we want to see it, rather than as it is”. Images of cold and hungry Russian recruits huddled in trenches paint a picture of shambolic mobilisation. In practice, Western and Ukrainian officials say they are worried about the units being formed out of sight.

The other problem is seeing what belligerents want you to see. In the early months of the war, videos showed strike after strike by Ukraine’s Bayraktar tb2 drones, many set to catchy music. It was a piece of theatre. “Ukraine recognised very quickly as part of an extremely effective information operations strategy that this was some of the best footage they had,” noted Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank, speaking on a recent podcast. “And so the Ukrainains stored up a lot of that footage and kept drip-feeding it, having got rid of date, time and location stamps to give the impression this was still a major thing a couple of months in.”
**

That last paragraph in particular is rather revealing of Ukraine's strategy. It's right up there with their claims of retaking Crimea, along with the U.S. going along for the narrative ride. I think the truth is as Patrick Lawrence paints it in his article. Quoting from it:

**
All signs of what was to come. Now to signs of what is to come.

One, there is Surovikin’s concern about protecting the combat readiness of the troops now regrouped on the Dnieper’s east bank. Two, there is the vast call-up of Russian reserves announced last summer: I read some 80,000 of the 300,000 reservists to be mustered out are already in place in Ukraine. Three, there is Moscow’s claim—respect it or not, it is a “fact on the ground”—that Kherson region is Russian territory now and Kherson is the provincial capital.

I add one and one and one and get this: It is very likely Surovikin, who is putting his own plans and people in place like some new-broom corporate CEO, has taken one step back prior to taking two forward. I don’t think anyone too far from the Russian high command can say when, but the signs just enumerated indicate that a major new offensive is in the offing at some point in the new year.
**

A cold winter has arrived in Ukraine. Now to see what comes in the spring.

[Walt]

Patrick Lawrence is not "alt right". He's anti deep state.

Alt right is characterized by among other things believing there is a secret "deep state" that must be defeated. So your argument that he is not alt right is contradicted by your argument he is alt right.

Maybe I am being too tough on him, but not by much. Back to this issue...

An interesting article. The second line you mentioned is actually part of a larger paragraph that I think bears mentioning in full, along with the previous one, and the one that followed:

Putting together useful intelligence out of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is difficult, but that is true with any war. What is not lacking here is huge amounts of raw data. This is the least opaque war there has ever been. This is a war that soldiers can tweet from the frontlines. They can post pictures, and even videos as combat happens.

There are a few films of real tank battles in WWII, but only a few. There are a few films of tanks being attacked every day out of Ukraine.

It reminds me of the joke:
You can meet someone today who will ask you if you want to see a single photo of their great grandfather. Imagine what it will be like a hundred years from now. Your great grandchild will ask people if they want to see ten thousand photos of you.

Here is one of the few tank battles filmed during WWII. It happened over a hundred thousand times, but this is the only one I can think of that was reasonably filmed.

[Walt]

Here is one of the few tank battles filmed during WWII. It happened over a hundred thousand times, but this is the only one I can think of that was reasonably filmed.

YouTube has been getting chicken about showing violence. It does involve people dying, so maybe it should be age restricted.

[Phoenyx]

Patrick Lawrence is not "alt right". He's anti deep state. He criticizes the Biden administration because they're the ones currently riding the deep state horse. When Trump was in power, he was just as cutting. Here's an article from February 2020 on Trump's handling of the Israeli palestinian conflict:

Patrick Lawrence: Trump's weakness for power | patricklawrence.us

The subtitle in the article:
**
Coercive might and money may be all that matter in Manhattan real estate. But they are bound to sink the president’s take-all-you-want “deal of the century” for Israel.
**

Alt right is characterized by among other things believing there is a secret "deep state" that must be defeated. So your argument that he is not alt right is contradicted by your argument he is alt right.

Alt left holds the same thing. Basically, those outside the mainstream believe that the deep state controls much of the left -and- the right and this they call the deep state. That's my personal belief as well.

An interesting article. The second line you mentioned is actually part of a larger paragraph that I think bears mentioning in full, along with the previous one, and the one that followed:

**
In a recent talk, General Sir Jim Hockenhull, who ran British defence intelligence until 2022, compared old-fashioned intelligence to assembling a jigsaw puzzle without the lid, showing the complete picture, or all the pieces. “What’s happening with open source is that we still don’t have the lid…but what we have is an almost infinite number of jigsaw pieces.” The result, he said, was that one could assemble “an almost infinite number of pictures”.

That creates “splintered realities”, says Mr Ford. He is working on an open-source narrative history of the war, and reckons it can be done “at what might be considered us intelligence standards”—a remarkable acceleration of military history. But he acknowledges that the infinite jigsaw poses serious challenges. One is the problem of self-deception: seeing the war “as we want to see it, rather than as it is”. Images of cold and hungry Russian recruits huddled in trenches paint a picture of shambolic mobilisation. In practice, Western and Ukrainian officials say they are worried about the units being formed out of sight.

The other problem is seeing what belligerents want you to see. In the early months of the war, videos showed strike after strike by Ukraine’s Bayraktar tb2 drones, many set to catchy music. It was a piece of theatre. “Ukraine recognised very quickly as part of an extremely effective information operations strategy that this was some of the best footage they had,” noted Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank, speaking on a recent podcast. “And so the Ukrainains stored up a lot of that footage and kept drip-feeding it, having got rid of date, time and location stamps to give the impression this was still a major thing a couple of months in.”
**

That last paragraph in particular is rather revealing of Ukraine's strategy. It's right up there with their claims of retaking Crimea, along with the U.S. going along for the narrative ride. I think the truth is as Patrick Lawrence paints it in his article. Quoting from it:

**
All signs of what was to come. Now to signs of what is to come.

One, there is Surovikin’s concern about protecting the combat readiness of the troops now regrouped on the Dnieper’s east bank. Two, there is the vast call-up of Russian reserves announced last summer: I read some 80,000 of the 300,000 reservists to be mustered out are already in place in Ukraine. Three, there is Moscow’s claim—respect it or not, it is a “fact on the ground”—that Kherson region is Russian territory now and Kherson is the provincial capital.

I add one and one and one and get this: It is very likely Surovikin, who is putting his own plans and people in place like some new-broom corporate CEO, has taken one step back prior to taking two forward. I don’t think anyone too far from the Russian high command can say when, but the signs just enumerated indicate that a major new offensive is in the offing at some point in the new year.
**

A cold winter has arrived in Ukraine. Now to see what comes in the spring.

Putting together useful intelligence out of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is difficult, but that is true with any war. What is not lacking here is huge amounts of raw data. This is the least opaque war there has ever been. This is a war that soldiers can tweet from the frontlines. They can post pictures, and even videos as combat happens.

There are a few films of real tank battles in WWII, but only a few. There are a few films of tanks being attacked every day out of Ukraine.

It reminds me of the joke:
You can meet someone today who will ask you if you want to see a single photo of their great grandfather. Imagine what it will be like a hundred years from now. Your great grandchild will ask people if they want to see ten thousand photos of you.

Here is one of the few tank battles filmed during WWII. It happened over a hundred thousand times, but this is the only one I can think of that was reasonably filmed.

You're talking of things like combat intelligence, and there I can agree. The issue that Patrick Lawrence highlights is the absolute dearth of accurate information that is being fed to the public at large. Your own article pointed that out quite clearly as I mentioned in my last post. Quoting the relevant paragraph once more:

**
The other problem is seeing what belligerents want you to see. In the early months of the war, videos showed strike after strike by Ukraine’s Bayraktar tb2 drones, many set to catchy music. It was a piece of theatre. “Ukraine recognised very quickly as part of an extremely effective information operations strategy that this was some of the best footage they had,” noted Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank, speaking on a recent podcast. “And so the Ukrainains stored up a lot of that footage and kept drip-feeding it, having got rid of date, time and location stamps to give the impression this was still a major thing a couple of months in.”
**

And then there are made up events, such as the alleged mass grave that Ukrainian officials cooked up in Mariupol which I brought up in post #136:

Patrick Lawrence: Why Are the Russians Retreating in Ukraine? | Scheerpost, Post #136

[Walt]

Alt left holds the same thing.

There is definitely a far left, those who believe the more moderate left is not going far enough, but there is no such thing as an "alt left." It just does not exist.

You're talking of things like combat intelligence, and there I can agree.

We are talking about open combat intelligence. Arm chair generals can follow the frontlines on their cell phones from anywhere in the world. We have more access to information with this war than ever before.

The issue that Patrick Lawrence highlights is the absolute dearth of accurate information that is being fed to the public at large.

There is more accurate information being released than ever before. There is more inaccurate information being released than ever before. There is better fact checkers than ever before. This is not just a slightly less opaque war than ever before, it is an exponentially less opaque war than ever before.

You probably have a smart cell phone with 12MP camera. A decade ago, that would have been prohibitively expensive and huge, but today, it is easy to get. Assuming you are not Russian, you can go to Ukraine without a visa. They will warn you about going to the frontline, but they will not stop you from going. You could easily be a frontline reporter, sending back detailed photos, with just a few thousand dollars for expenses.

I do not suggest it, because it is extremely dangerous, but many, many people are doing it. Many more are already there and sending pictures and movies.

[Phoenyx]

There is definitely a far left, those who believe the more moderate left is not going far enough, but there is no such thing as an "alt left." It just does not exist.

Clearly not everyone agrees with your assessment:

Antifa and the ‘Alt-Left’: Everything You Need to Know | Rolling Stone

Quoting from the article:

**
Though it began as an insult within the left – a way to further deride the far left and so-called “Bernie Bros” during and after November’s election – the right has adopted the phrase, as well. Sean Hannity and other, fringier monsters of the far-right media ecosystem have been, for at least a year now, pushing the idea of the “alt-left” as some sort of answer to the charge that the “alt-right,” a very real political entity, has hijacked and poisoned the Republican party. The Washington Post best described it in 2016 as “The GOP’s response: I know what you are but what am I.”
**

I myself wanted Bernie Sanders to win, so by the establishment left, I could be considered to be on the "alt left".

You're talking of things like combat intelligence, and there I can agree.

We are talking about open combat intelligence. Arm chair generals can follow the frontlines on their cell phones from anywhere in the world. We have more access to information with this war than ever before.

In some ways, sure, but not in others. I've already given you several examples of the Ukrainian government lying during this war and the western mainstream media just parroting whatever they tell them.

The issue that Patrick Lawrence highlights is the absolute dearth of accurate information that is being fed to the public at large.

There is more accurate information being released than ever before. There is more inaccurate information being released than ever before. There is better fact checkers than ever before.

Do you have any evidence to back up this assertion? Patrick Lawrence, who used to write articles for the New York Times, has come to the conclusion that it has become incredibly twisted recently. His latest article which he published today points this out as well. I decided to make a thread of it here:

Patrick Lawrence: The Shadows Descend in Ukraine | Scheerpost

This is not just a slightly less opaque war than ever before, it is an exponentially less opaque war than ever before.

You probably have a smart cell phone with 12MP camera. A decade ago, that would have been prohibitively expensive and huge, but today, it is easy to get. Assuming you are not Russian, you can go to Ukraine without a visa. They will warn you about going to the frontline, but they will not stop you from going. You could easily be a frontline reporter, sending back detailed photos, with just a few thousand dollars for expenses.

It seems you're unaware of Ukraine's black list called Myrotvorets. Wikipedia has a page on it here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myrotvorets

Quoting from the article:
**
On 7 May 2016, the website published the personal data of 4,508 journalists and other media members from all over the world who had worked (or had received accreditation to work) on the war in the uncontrolled government territory of Donbas, and therefore were considered by the site to have cooperated with terrorists.[24][25][26] There were phone numbers, email addresses, and some countries and cities of residence of Ukrainian and foreign journalists received from the hacked database of Donetsk People's Republic Ministry of State Security; journalists and support staff provided these data to be accredited by the unrecognized Donetsk People's Republic. In response, the Security Service of Ukraine issued a statement that it found no violations of Ukrainian law by Myrotvorets.[27] According to Yulia Gorbunova, senior researcher for Human Rights Watch, the implications this list has for press freedoms is serious, adding that the existence of the list puts lives in danger.[12] The then President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko called the leak a "big mistake".[28]
**

Here's an article on the site:

Journalists demand that the Mirotvorets website be classified as a terrorist organization and closed down | Donbass Insider

Quoting the introduction of the article:

**
September 9, 2022

On 6 September 2022, a conference organized by the Anti-Repression Foundation entitled “Information Gestapo: Ukrainian nationalist website Mirotvorets lists are used to suppress free speech and repress journalists” took place in Moscow”.

I participated in this conference with colleagues from several Western countries: Germany, USA, Finland, Netherlands, Canada, England.

All the journalists present condemned the very existence of Mirotvorets, while stressing that the attempt to silence them by scaring them would not work. They all confirmed that they would continue to do their work, regardless of the death threats against them.

It should be remembered that the Mirotvorets site publishes, among other things, personal data on journalists, scans of their passports, their addresses, information about their relatives and even information about their vehicles (in my case, my old car has all its data, including its VIN code and old registration number, published on this site). All this information makes it possible to track down journalists who are on Mirotvorets’ lists, and can only have been provided to this site by secret services (Ukrainian, or perhaps Western).

Mira Terada, the director of the Anti-Repression Foundation presented figures on the number of Western journalists listed on the Mirotvorets website. Of the 341 journalists listed on Mirotvorets, 83 are journalists from outside Russia, Ukraine, DPR and LPR (Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics). The overwhelming majority (80) are Western journalists.

She also recalled that several journalists had been killed after their data was published by the Mirotvorets website, such as Oles Bouzina, Andrea Rocchelli, Zemfira Soulaeïmanova, Andreï Stenine, Igor Korneliouk, Anton Volochine, and more recently Daria Douguina.
**

[Gondwanaland]

The ' diplomatic solution ' will be a cast-iron, written guarantee that NATO will not permit Ukraine membership.

Russia will also want to preserve the independence of the pro-Russian regions that have declared as republics- and Crimea, of course.

Ukraine will have to get rid of Zelensky to achieve it.

Russia can go suck a dick, and you can get back to sucking Putin's

[moon]

Russia can go suck a dick, and you can get back to sucking Putin's

I'll add you to my list of avoidable JPP fellatio fetishists.

[Phoenyx]

Russia can go suck a dick, and you can get back to sucking Putin's

I'll add you to my list of avoidable JPP fellatio fetishists.

Sounds like a good idea, I think I'll do the same.

[Gondwanaland]

I'll add you to my list of avoidable JPP fellatio fetishists.

Yes, please do avoid me, I don't want you sucking my dick. Stick to your commie boy Putin.

[moon]

Yes, please do avoid me, I don't want you sucking my dick. Stick to your commie boy Putin.

No- I won't be avoiding you. I'll just look for you on my list of JPP fellatio fetishists for identification.



Haw, haw..............................haw.

[Gondwanaland]

No- I won't be avoiding you. I'll just look for you on my list of JPP fellatio fetishists for identification.



Haw, haw..............................haw.

No thanks, I don't need you're cum-stained lips anywhere near me. Stick to deepthroating your boy Putin, you traitorous cunt.

[moon]

No thanks, I don't need you're cum-stained lips anywhere near me. Stick to deepthroating your boy Putin, you traitorous cunt.

Aw, your show of affection assures my future attention.
Who doesn't like a demented potty-mouth on a cold wet Sunday.

Haw, haw..........................haw.

[Jarod]

Biden has started WW3. History books will not be kind to him.

And I stubbed my toe, “Dammit Biden!”