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Thread: Patrick Lawrence: Why Are the Russians Retreating in Ukraine? | Scheerpost

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    Default Patrick Lawrence: Why Are the Russians Retreating in Ukraine? | Scheerpost

    Just read the article from Patrick Lawrence with the same name as the title of this thread on Scheerpost today, found it quite interesting, thought some here might as well. Hopefully room for some constructive discussion on it. Here's the introduction to the article:

    **
    November 12, 2022

    The most opaque war in my lifetime and probably yours, the war we can hardly see because the reporting is so bad, just took an unexpected turn. There must be someone somewhere who anticipated the retreat of Russian forces from Kherson, the key Ukrainian city along the southern end of the Dnieper River, but I haven’t run across such a person. Russia’s move certainly came as an abrupt surprise to me.

    How shall we understand this development? What comes now? As we attempt answers, it is important neither to underestimate nor overestimate the significance of Russia’s withdrawal from the only provincial capital it has held since its intervention began last February.

    The New York Times ran a piece covering this development last Thursday. It is worth reading for some of the detail the reporter included; it also has a map of the Kherson region and a useful photograph of the Dnieper River that shows Kherson City on the west bank and the east bank opposite, to which Russian troops have retreated.

    **

    I thought I'd include a little from the center of the article that highlights a theory that I'd been holding but hadn't seen voiced before, namely that this is a -temporary- tactical retreat:

    **
    All signs of what was to come. Now to signs of what is to come.

    One, there is Surovikin’s concern about protecting the combat readiness of the troops now regrouped on the Dnieper’s east bank. Two, there is the vast call-up of Russian reserves announced last summer: I read some 80,000 of the 300,000 reservists to be mustered out are already in place in Ukraine. Three, there is Moscow’s claim—respect it or not, it is a “fact on the ground”—that Kherson region is Russian territory now and Kherson is the provincial capital.

    I add one and one and one and get this: It is very likely Surovikin, who is putting his own plans and people in place like some new-broom corporate CEO, has taken one step back prior to taking two forward. I don’t think anyone too far from the Russian high command can say when, but the signs just enumerated indicate that a major new offensive is in the offing at some point in the new year.

    **


    Finally, Patrick goes into how even the U.S., vis a vis Joint Chiefs chairman Mark Milley, has started to talk of possible diplomatic solutions. I for one certainly hope that this war ends with a diplomatic solution, the sooner, the better.

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    The ' diplomatic solution ' will be a cast-iron, written guarantee that NATO will not permit Ukraine membership.

    Russia will also want to preserve the independence of the pro-Russian regions that have declared as republics- and Crimea, of course.

    Ukraine will have to get rid of Zelensky to achieve it.
    " First they came for the journalists...
    We don't know what happened after that . "

    Maria Ressa.

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    The strong nations should have learned that people fight hard to protect their families and homelands. They have nowhere to go. They know the land. Russia blasted through Ukraine until they took territory. Then they had to defend it. That is much tougher. Ukraine has a right to its own pacts and alliances. Russia has no right to dictate them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moon View Post
    The ' diplomatic solution ' will be a cast-iron, written guarantee that NATO will not permit Ukraine membership.

    Russia will also want to preserve the independence of the pro-Russian regions that have declared as republics- and Crimea, of course.

    Ukraine will have to get rid of Zelensky to achieve it.
    That ain’t happening, all it would do is invite another, better designed, future Putin invasion of the Ukraine, and Zelensky has already said the territory Putin claimed ain’t staying with Putin

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    That ain’t happening, all it would do is invite another, better designed, future Putin invasion of the Ukraine, and Zelensky has already said the territory Putin claimed ain’t staying with Putin
    This war won’t end until Putin is gone. If his health rumors are correct that may not be hat long
    IMPEACH 46

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExpressLane View Post
    This war won’t end until Putin is gone. If his health rumors are correct that may not be that long
    I have doubts about Putin's health problems. I read about them a year ago saying he had cancer. A sick man is not likely to start a war. What does he get from it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    That ain’t happening, all it would do is invite another, better designed, future Putin invasion of the Ukraine, and Zelensky has already said the territory Putin claimed ain’t staying with Putin
    Yes- and that's why I say that Zelensky has to go.

    Anybody thinking that this will end WITHOUT Russia getting secure borders is sucking on the NATO hookah.
    " First they came for the journalists...
    We don't know what happened after that . "

    Maria Ressa.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moon View Post
    Yes- and that's why I say that Zelensky has to go.

    Anybody thinking that this will end WITHOUT Russia getting secure borders is sucking on the NATO hookah.
    Russia had secure orders before they invaded Ukraine. Time for a better excuse.

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    Quote Originally Posted by floridafan View Post
    Russia had secure orders before they invaded Ukraine. Time for a better excuse.
    That was before the US-led coup in 2014 when Ukraine had a pro-Russian president.

    The US wanted to pressure Russia- mission accomplished.
    " First they came for the journalists...
    We don't know what happened after that . "

    Maria Ressa.

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    Patrick Lawrence: "The most opaque war in my lifetime and probably yours, the war we can hardly see because the reporting is so bad, just took an unexpected turn. There must be someone somewhere who anticipated the retreat of Russian forces from Kherson"
    I don't know who Patrick Lawrence is, but you can't have the pulse of this war just reading Anglo-American opinion columnist and podcasters.

    I rely on a steady dose of Russian independent media and legitimate milbloggers, and they were reporting to me back in September that the Russian position in Kherson was untenable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moon View Post
    That was before the US-led coup in 2014 when Ukraine had a pro-Russian president.

    The US wanted to pressure Russia- mission accomplished.
    What does 2014 have to do with 2022?

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    Quote Originally Posted by moon View Post
    The ' diplomatic solution ' will be a cast-iron, written guarantee that NATO will not permit Ukraine membership.

    Russia will also want to preserve the independence of the pro-Russian regions that have declared as republics- and Crimea, of course.

    Ukraine will have to get rid of Zelensky to achieve it.
    Biden has started WW3. History books will not be kind to him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by floridafan View Post
    What does 2014 have to do with 2022?
    The Azov Nazis shelled the breakaway regions for eight years. 14,000 are reputed to have died.
    If you didn't know that then you're out of your depth here.
    " First they came for the journalists...
    We don't know what happened after that . "

    Maria Ressa.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moon View Post
    The ' diplomatic solution ' will be a cast-iron, written guarantee that NATO will not permit Ukraine membership.

    Russia will also want to preserve the independence of the pro-Russian regions that have declared as republics- and Crimea, of course.

    Ukraine will have to get rid of Zelensky to achieve it.
    I think your first 2 claims are fairly likely. As to your third, I'm less sure.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nordberg View Post
    The strong nations should have learned that people fight hard to protect their families and homelands. They have nowhere to go. They know the land. Russia blasted through Ukraine until they took territory. Then they had to defend it. That is much tougher. Ukraine has a right to its own pacts and alliances. Russia has no right to dictate them.
    I suspect that you have little if any knowledge of the 8 year civil war that preceded Russia's military operation, wherein western Ukraine killed around 10,000 eastern Ukrainians, a good portion of which were ethnic Russians or at least Russian speakers. For more on that, I highly recommend the following thread I created:

    Former Swiss Intelligence Officer blows the whistle on West's Ukraine War Narrative | justplainpolitics.com

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