Ending the war in Ukraine

[Phoenyx]

I'd like to have a genuine discussion as to how best to end the war in Ukraine. Now, I know from experience that many will just say something along the lines of "Russia should just go home". To this, my counter would be that for many ethnic Russians, eastern Ukraine has -been- home since before the 8 year civil war in Ukraine started. Furthermore, the recent referendum results in the 4 eastern Ukrainian regions that Russia controls, where all of them voted to join the Russian Federation strongly suggests that they would rather have Russia govern them than Ukraine. Now, I know that the western mainstream media narrative is that those referendums are a sham. I don't personally believe this, but, like Elon Musk, I am fine with the idea that the referendums be done again with more international observers. I also believe that Russia would jump at the chance of doing this if it meant that the war would end if the results were essentially the same.

Well, now to see if anyone's interested in discussing the subject here...

[anonymoose]

I'd like to have a genuine discussion as to how best to end the war in Ukraine. Now, I know from experience that many will just say something along the lines of "Russia should just go home". To this, my counter would be that for many ethnic Russians, eastern Ukraine has -been- home since before the 8 year civil war in Ukraine started. Furthermore, the recent referendum results in the 4 eastern Ukrainian regions that Russia controls, where all of them voted to join the Russian Federation strongly suggests that they would rather have Russia govern them than Ukraine. Now, I know that the western mainstream media narrative is that those referendums are a sham. I don't personally believe this, but, like Elon Musk, I am fine with the idea that the referendums be done again with more international observers. I also believe that Russia would jump at the chance of doing this if it meant that the war would end if the results were essentially the same.

Well, now to see if anyone's interested in discussing the subject here...

If Putin (Russia) had limited the war to those four regions maybe there’d be something to discuss. They really fucked up trying to conquer the entire country quickly. And now targeting infrastructure. This war is not what Putin wanted.
They stirred up a hornet’s nest.

[McRocket]

I'd like to have a genuine discussion as to how best to end the war in Ukraine. Now, I know from experience that many will just say something along the lines of "Russia should just go home". To this, my counter would be that for many ethnic Russians, eastern Ukraine has -been- home since before the 8 year civil war in Ukraine started. Furthermore, the recent referendum results in the 4 eastern Ukrainian regions that Russia controls, where all of them voted to join the Russian Federation strongly suggests that they would rather have Russia govern them than Ukraine. Now, I know that the western mainstream media narrative is that those referendums are a sham. I don't personally believe this, but, like Elon Musk, I am fine with the idea that the referendums be done again with more international observers. I also believe that Russia would jump at the chance of doing this if it meant that the war would end if the results were essentially the same.

Well, now to see if anyone's interested in discussing the subject here...

Russia would only 'jump' at the chance if the referendums were legitimate.
If Putin knows that they were not - especially in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblast's - why would he welcome a more detailed referendum?

(of course, there have been numerous polls showing overwhelmingly that LPR, DPR and ESPECIALLY Crimea...strongly want NO PART of Kiev)

[McRocket]

BTW - Biden could end the war FAST...IMO.

Simply tell Russia that they can keep DPR, LPR and Crimea.
(there have been numerous polls showing overwhelmingly that LPR, DPR and Crimea...strongly want, NO PART of Kiev).
And the rest they have to give up.
But, in 6 months, a UN monitored referendum will be held in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblast's.
Plus, the remaining areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast's.

If those referendums show a solid majority (over 60%) want to join Russia?
They will - in those, particular Oblast's - be allowed to do just that.

If Russia refuses?
Tell Putin that America will unleash the entire, conventional might of it's armed forces onto ALL, Russian forces in the disputed areas.
This will be carried out through no fly zones/no navy zones and cruise missile strikes (NO U.S. TROOPS...NO MATTER WHAT).

Putin will be forced to either take the deal or go nuclear (which I seriously doubt he will do - no win scenario).
Russia has NO CHANCE against America conventionally.
None.


If Kiev refuses the deal?
But Russia takes it?

Biden/Harris/DeSantis/Trump/the Tooth Fairy/a Dog with a high IQ/whomever is POTUS...gives Kiev an ultimatum?
Accept the deal or America will stop all shipments and establish a no fly zone over the disputed territories in SUPPORT of Russia.
Again, Kiev will take the deal...FOR CERTAIN.

What The rest of NATO thinks about it is irrelevant.

This solution would see the Ukrainian people able to choose - for themselves - exactly which country they want to belong to.


If Biden truly wanted peace and had a spine - he could end this mess in weeks.
Days.

But clearly, he has neocons whispering in his ear.
And seems to want nothing less than the severe weakening of Russia.
Anyone who thinks he actually gives a shit about Ukraine is so naive...it almost boggles the mind.

[McRocket]

https://ericmargolis.com/2022/10/sto...d-war-iii-now/

[Phoenyx]

If Putin (Russia) had limited the war to those four regions maybe there’d be something to discuss. They really fucked up trying to conquer the entire country quickly. And now targeting infrastructure. This war is not what Putin wanted.
They stirred up a hornet’s nest.

I definitely agree that this war is not what Putin wanted. For 8 years, he struggled to avoid it through diplomacy, resulting in the Minsk and Minsk 2 accords. It was all for naught, and he brought this up in the speech he gave on the day he started his military operation. Quoting from it:

**
This brings me to the situation in Donbass. We can see that the forces that staged the coup in Ukraine in 2014 have seized power, are keeping it with the help of ornamental election procedures and have abandoned the path of a peaceful conflict settlement. For eight years, for eight endless years we have been doing everything possible to settle the situation by peaceful political means. Everything was in vain.

As I said in my previous address, you cannot look without compassion at what is happening there. It became impossible to tolerate it. We had to stop that atrocity, that genocide of the millions of people who live there and who pinned their hopes on Russia, on all of us. It is their aspirations, the feelings and pain of these people that were the main motivating force behind our decision to recognise the independence of the Donbass people’s republics.

I would like to additionally emphasise the following. Focused on their own goals, the leading NATO countries are supporting the far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis in Ukraine, those who will never forgive the people of Crimea and Sevastopol for freely making a choice to reunite with Russia.
**

Source:
Full text of Vladimir Putin’s speech announcing ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine | theprint.in

[Phoenyx]

Russia would only 'jump' at the chance if the referendums were legitimate.
If Putin knows that they were not - especially in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblast's - why would he welcome a more detailed referendum?

(of course, there have been numerous polls showing overwhelmingly that LPR, DPR and ESPECIALLY Crimea...strongly want NO PART of Kiev)

Agreed. The sad thing here, however, is that no power broker that I know of, other than Elon Musk, has even suggested that the referendums be redone with more international scrutiny. Everyone else seems to just dismiss them all as shams.

[Phoenyx]

BTW - Biden could end the war FAST...IMO.

Simply tell Russia that they can keep DPR, LPR and Crimea.
(there have been numerous polls showing overwhelmingly that LPR, DPR and Crimea...strongly want, NO PART of Kiev).
And the rest they have to give up.

Russia seemed fully prepared to do this near the beginning of the war. Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies from CODEPINK wrote about this back in September:
We Urgently Need to Give Ukraine Peace Talks a Chance | Scheerpost

Quoting from their article:
**
For those who say negotiations are impossible, we have only to look at the talks that took place during the first month after the Russian invasion, when Russia and Ukraine tentatively agreed to a fifteen-point peace plan in talks mediated by Turkey. Details still had to be worked out, but the framework and the political will were there.

Russia was ready to withdraw from all of Ukraine, except for Crimea and the self-declared republics in Donbas. Ukraine was ready to renounce future membership in NATO and adopt a position of neutrality between Russia and NATO.
**

The problem is that that was then. Russia has since said that that deal is off the table, especially now that they've had referendums in 2 regions other than Lugansk and Donetsk and claiming that they both voted strongly to join Russia as well.

But, in 6 months, a UN monitored referendum will be held in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblast's.
Plus, the remaining areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast's.

If those referendums show a solid majority (over 60%) want to join Russia?
They will - in those, particular Oblast's - be allowed to do just that.

I think Russia wouild go for that.

If Russia refuses?
Tell Putin that America will unleash the entire, conventional might of it's armed forces onto ALL, Russian forces in the disputed areas.
This will be carried out through no fly zones/no navy zones and cruise missile strikes (NO U.S. TROOPS...NO MATTER WHAT).

I don't think that would be wise. Putin has made it rather clear that he would use nukes if provoked sufficiently. I think your idea would do that. However, at this point, very few are pushing for the idea of redoing the referendums. There's no need to think of what to do if Russia refuses if most aren't even pushing for this as a possibile solution.

Putin will be forced to either take the deal or go nuclear (which I seriously doubt he will do - no win scenario).

I think the U.S. had been willing to go nuclear during the Cuban missile crisis, and this seems very similar to that crisis, only this time in Russia's back yard. As a matter of fact, things -almost- went nuclear back in the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the U.S. appeared to be targetting a Russian sub in the area.

Russia has NO CHANCE against America conventionally.
None.

Which is why Putin has brought up Russia's nuclear arsenal.

If Kiev refuses the deal?
But Russia takes it?

Biden/Harris/DeSantis/Trump/the Tooth Fairy/a Dog with a high IQ/whomever is POTUS...gives Kiev an ultimatum?
Accept the deal or America will stop all shipments and establish a no fly zone over the disputed territories in SUPPORT of Russia.
Again, Kiev will take the deal...FOR CERTAIN.

I can't see the U.S. supporting Russia, lol :-p. But yeah, that sounds reasonable.

What The rest of NATO thinks about it is irrelevant.

That may well be true.

This solution would see the Ukrainian people able to choose - for themselves - exactly which country they want to belong to.


If Biden truly wanted peace and had a spine - he could end this mess in weeks.
Days.

But clearly, he has neocons whispering in his ear.
And seems to want nothing less than the severe weakening of Russia.
Anyone who thinks he actually gives a shit about Ukraine is so naive...it almost boggles the mind.

I don't know about Biden not caring about Ukraine. But I definitely think he's got the neocons whispering in his ear.

[Phoenyx]

https://ericmargolis.com/2022/10/sto...d-war-iii-now/

A good article.

[McRocket]

I don't think that would be wise. Putin has made it rather clear that he would use nukes if provoked sufficiently. I think your idea would do that. However, at this point, very few are pushing for the idea of redoing the referendums. There's no need to think of what to do if Russia refuses if most aren't even pushing for this as a possibile solution.



I think the U.S. had been willing to go nuclear during the Cuban missile crisis, and this seems very similar to that crisis, only this time in Russia's back yard. As a matter of fact, things -almost- went nuclear back in the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the U.S. appeared to be targetting a Russian sub in the area.



Which is why Putin has brought up Russia's nuclear arsenal.

I have to disagree.

a) the reason that Putin is throwing around the nuclear idea (imo) is because he has NOTHING ELSE to throw around. Literally.
b) Russia gains NOTHING from going nuclear. Absolutely nothing. They use them? America uses them (they have to - Biden would be politically finished if he let Putin use nukes and did nothing in return and/or backed down because of said usage). Putin knows this. Nothing for him to gain from it.
c) you cannot let another country use nuclear blackmail to alter your national security policies (assuming you have nukes as well). You have to ignore them...completely. Otherwise, if Putin gets the slightest hint that they work? He has a virtual, free hand (as would other nuclear states) to 'scare' America with nukes...anytime they want something. Knowing that Biden will back down.

Sorry...I see no chance whatsoever (short of Putin going insane and his generals letting him use nukes) of Putin using nukes.
And Biden must NOT let that effect his decision making.

[McRocket]

Agreed. The sad thing here, however, is that no power broker that I know of, other than Elon Musk, has even suggested that the referendums be redone with more international scrutiny. Everyone else seems to just dismiss them all as shams.

Agreed.

IMO, they are dismissing them because they do not want them.
Most people - now that Russia appears to be losing - want the war to continue (including the Ukrainian's - apparently).
They want to see Russia thrown out of Ukraine and humiliated.

The West is tasting blood (especially the neocons and the MSM).

I am not worried about Ukraine re-capturing ALL the territory Russia took after February 24.
Power to them...Russia had no business taking them in the first place.

I had NO problem with Russia helping DPR and LPR getting hold of the rest of their Oblast's.
But invading Ukraine proper?
I thought it was wrong and GALACTICALLY stupid on Putin's part.

And considering the BRILLIANT job he did in Syria...I was surprised he made such a fundamental blunder in Ukraine.


What I am, EXTREMELY worried about is if they try and move into DPR, LPR or - especially - Crimea.

That is the ONLY scenario where I think there is a danger that Russia could use nukes.
If they believe that Russian territory is being invaded by the West?
And if Russians believe that they cannot stop them conventionally?
Then I think they might use nukes.
But not before.

I realize you believe the referendums in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblast's were legit.
I don't. And I won't until there is peace and numerous, western-based, private polls are done to confirm the results.
Nor, do I think that most Russian's give a crap about those two Oblast's.

But LPR and DPR are different.
And Crimea is MEGA-different.
That was Russian for centuries.
For some bizarre reason, Khrushchev just gave it to Ukraine in the 50's.

I STRONGLY believe most Russians see Crimea as a 'red line'.

I sincerely hope Biden is not stupid/senile enough to actually try to cross that line.

[dukkha]

The west/NATO will never recognize any referendums for the oblasts.
They wouldnt even recognize the Crimean referendum -an annexation without a shot fired.

It's a sound idea to bring an and to the war -but the west (meaning USA) doesn't want the war to end
The war for the USA is against Russia -proxy or not

[Phoenyx]

I don't think that would be wise. Putin has made it rather clear that he would use nukes if provoked sufficiently. I think your idea would do that. However, at this point, very few are pushing for the idea of redoing the referendums. There's no need to think of what to do if Russia refuses if most aren't even pushing for this as a possibile solution.


I think the U.S. had been willing to go nuclear during the Cuban missile crisis, and this seems very similar to that crisis, only this time in Russia's back yard. As a matter of fact, things -almost- went nuclear back in the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the U.S. appeared to be targetting a Russian sub in the area.

Which is why Putin has brought up Russia's nuclear arsenal.

I have to disagree.

a) the reason that Putin is throwing around the nuclear idea (imo) is because he has NOTHING ELSE to throw around. Literally.

Russia seems to be holding its own with conventional weapons for the time being. And there are certainly some military analysts who believe that they'll be able to continue taking Ukraine territory if Ukraine doesn't sue for peace in the near future. Scott Ritter, a former U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer, said precisely this in an interview with The Real News network earlier this month:

b) Russia gains NOTHING from going nuclear. Absolutely nothing. They use them? America uses them (they have to - Biden would be politically finished if he let Putin use nukes and did nothing in return and/or backed down because of said usage). Putin knows this. Nothing for him to gain from it.

I'm not sure if it would kill Biden's political career. Regardless, one would hope that Biden would care more about the country he supposedly serves rather than his ratings. Hopefully, we never get to the point where we find out.

c) you cannot let another country use nuclear blackmail to alter your national security policies (assuming you have nukes as well). You have to ignore them...completely. Otherwise, if Putin gets the slightest hint that they work? He has a virtual, free hand (as would other nuclear states) to 'scare' America with nukes...anytime they want something. Knowing that Biden will back down.

The American people as a whole have almost 0 reason for being in Ukraine to begin with. The only ones strongly benefitting from this is the military industrial complex. The U.S. had been perfectly ready to take out Cuba back during the Cuban missile crisis, despite Russia's involvement. Now Russia has its own Cuban missile crisis and I don't see them backing down just because the U.S. is there either.

Sorry...I see no chance whatsoever (short of Putin going insane and his generals letting him use nukes) of Putin using nukes.
And Biden must NOT let that effect his decision making.

I believe Biden's best course of action would be to stop supporting Ukraine militarily and strongly encourage them to end the war by conceding most if not all of the territory that Russia has taken. Ukraine had had an opportunity to only concede Crimea and the Donbass region near the start of the war, doubt that'll be possible now though.

[Phoenyx]

Agreed.

IMO, they are dismissing them because they do not want them.
Most people - now that Russia appears to be losing - want the war to continue (including the Ukrainian's - apparently).

I think that appearances in this case are quite deceiving. I think Scott Ritter lays it out in the interview that I posted in my last post. Yes, Ukraine retook some territory, but they apparently only did so by burning through most of their NATO equipment and a lot of personnel. They can't do a repeat performance and Russia has since reinforced its position with its partial mobilization. I strongly suspect that if Ukraine doesn't sue for peace during the next few months, Russia will take more ground come spring.

They want to see Russia thrown out of Ukraine and humiliated.

The West is tasting blood (especially the neocons and the MSM).

I am not worried about Ukraine re-capturing ALL the territory Russia took after February 24.
Power to them...Russia had no business taking them in the first place.

I had NO problem with Russia helping DPR and LPR getting hold of the rest of their Oblast's.
But invading Ukraine proper?
I thought it was wrong and GALACTICALLY stupid on Putin's part.

I think the main issue here is that both prior to Russia's military operation in Ukraine, as well as during, Ukraine has continued to attack Donetsk (and presumably Lugansk) from their positions. The only way to stop those attacks was to capture said positions. But there's another issue at play here, which is that though Ukraine formerly held areas outside of Donetsk and Lugansk, this doesn't mean that much of the population there appreciated Ukraine's discrimination against ethnic Russians and Russian speakers.

What I am, EXTREMELY worried about is if they try and move into DPR, LPR or - especially - Crimea.

That is the ONLY scenario where I think there is a danger that Russia could use nukes.
If they believe that Russian territory is being invaded by the West?
And if Russians believe that they cannot stop them conventionally?
Then I think they might use nukes.
But not before.

Remember that Russia now continues all 4 regions where they took territory to be part of Russia now. That includes the Kherson city that they have decided to withdraw from for now. If Ukraine were to sue for peace now, I can see Russia allowing Ukraine to keep Kherson, but I think that's as far as they'd be willing to go.

I realize you believe the referendums in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblast's were legit.
I don't.

I concede that I'm not completely sure they were legit and I'm perfectly fine with the idea of redoing them with more international scrutiny. I also believe that Russia would allow this. If they didn't, that would certainly be revealing.

And I won't until there is peace and numerous, western-based, private polls are done to confirm the results.
Nor, do I think that most Russian's give a crap about those two Oblast's.

But LPR and DPR are different.
And Crimea is MEGA-different.
That was Russian for centuries.
For some bizarre reason, Khrushchev just gave it to Ukraine in the 50's.

One theory as to why Krushchev gave it up was to balance the more western leaning parts of Ukraine. Crimea started making moves to have more independence from Ukraine as soon as Ukraine became an independent nation and from everything I've heard, the referendum to join Russia was legit.

I STRONGLY believe most Russians see Crimea as a 'red line'.

We certainly agree there.

I sincerely hope Biden is not stupid/senile enough to actually try to cross that line.

Let's hope we never find out.

[Phoenyx]

The west/NATO will never recognize any referendums for the oblasts.
They wouldnt even recognize the Crimean referendum -an annexation without a shot fired.

It's a sound idea to bring an and to the war -but the west (meaning USA) doesn't want the war to end
The war for the USA is against Russia -proxy or not

I certainly agree that the USA is against Russia, but I also think it bears noting that the current U.S. power brokers aren't the only game in town. The longer this war drags on, the more regular americans will protest the massive flow of their hard earned dollars over to a country they have very little connection to.