October surprise? Why OPEC's planned price hike could pummel Democrats

[ExpressLane]

Which is why it would be stupid to vote for Republicans since they plunged manufacturing into a recession for all of 2019, and then the rest of the economy followed the month before any COVID lockdowns.

All with a tax cut that was supposed to lead to growth of "at least 3%".

Actual growth: 2.85%, which was lower than Obama's best annual growth of 2.89%.

So even with a $2.5T tax cut you still couldn't beat Obama.

U.S. manufacturing output for 2019 was $2,366.30B, a 1.63% increase from 2018.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publicati...cturing-sector

[Saint Guinefort]

The economy (Which includes oil prices) is very high on the voter's minds.

Definitely. Possibly even moreso than the GOP's attempted Talibanization of Reproductive Politics here in the US.

But the economy is precisely why OPEC+ is slashing production. They see a possible recession, too, and that will decrease demand and crater their prices. It's basic economics and 100% perfect capitalism.

If we don't like it we should definitely NOT screech "Free Market" everytime someone disagrees with us.

[LV426]

It isn't as simple as how much WE produce vs how much OPEC+ produces. The oil price is a function of BOTH of those things and OPEC+ probably has a MUCH bigger lever. If they slash production it drives up the cost ACROSS THE BOARD>

You're wasting your time because he doesn't understand how the global oil markets work and who controls them.

They stupidly think that by lettng private companies drill in the Grand Canyon they can somehow control the price per barrel, but OPEC can just cut their production to prevent the price per barrel from decreasing...doing so will bankrupt some US oil companies, like what happened in 2015 that everyone seems to be forgetting.

[ExpressLane]

It isn't as simple as how much WE produce vs how much OPEC+ produces. The oil price is a function of BOTH of those things and OPEC+ probably has a MUCH bigger lever. If they slash production it drives up the cost ACROSS THE BOARD>

OPEC + does have a bigger lever but the US was the single largest producer , and consumer, in the World.

[LV426]

U.S. manufacturing output for 2019 was $2,366.30B, a 1.63% increase from 2018.

U.S. manufacturing was in a mild recession during 2019, a sore spot for the economy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-spot-economy/



How embarrassing for you that you don't understand what you're posting.

[Saint Guinefort]

OPEC + does have a bigger lever but the US was the single largest producer , and consumer, in the World.

...and again, that won't change how it impacts the prices overall.

We are but ONE provider in a sea of oil providers. If the folks who have MORE oil than we do (combined) all agree to slash production then the price WILL go up. Regardless of how pure and blessed our mighty geysers of oil are.

(Also a goodly amount of our production increases come at the expense of secondary recovery and enhanced recovery techniques which are inherently more expensive to produce than some of the free flowing wells would be.)

[LV426]

OPEC + does have a bigger lever but the US was the single largest producer , and consumer, in the World.

It doesn't fucking matter how much oil the US produces because OPEC produces more and can ramp up or ramp back production depending on what their goal is.

If their goal is to bankrupt US oil companies, then they would increase production in order to drive down the price per barrel.

If their goal is to make themselves richer, then they would decrease production in order to drive UP the price per barrel.

Regardless, the global oil market is controlled by OPEC and will always be controlled by them until the cartel is broken.

[LV426]

U.S. manufacturing output for 2019 was $2,366.30B, a 1.63% increase from 2018.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publicati...cturing-sector

When I open your link and search for what you wrote here, I don't see those numbers at all.

So you are lying.

Again.

LYING. AGAIN.

All you fucking do here is lie.

[ExpressLane]

Yeah, saw this this morning. It's a tough one, though. OPEC+ wants to hedge their bets against a possible recession and decrease in demand which would crater the prices for them. Can't really blame capitalists for being capitalists I suppose. (And this has nothing to do with Keystone which was meant to pump Alberta tar sands oil down to ports to be exported and sold elsewhere. That oil wasn't intended for the US and won't see the US)

But by the same token if the Middle East and associated folks (including Russia) want America controlled by the Right again this is the best possible time to do this. It will definitely aid the GOP in retaking the legislature.

This might actually work to Russia's goals given the GOP's current preference for Russian autocrats, but I don't think it will be great for most of the other OPEC+ members.

Driving by the gas station the other day made me glad I went EV.

Actually the Canadian oil is sour oil and much of it have been refined in the Gulf Coast refineries which are designed for sour crude. They prefer to refine it because sour crude is sold at a discount. Personally I think OPEC is trying to increase the price of oil. They get more dollars by selling less oil.

The Keystone XL pipeline "doesn’t even have any oil for America."
https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...eline-stay-us/

MOSTLY FALSE

[Phantasmal]

It doesn't fucking matter how much oil the US produces because OPEC produces more and can ramp up or ramp back production depending on what their goal is.

If their goal is to bankrupt US oil companies, then they would increase production in order to drive down the price per barrel.

If their goal is to make themselves richer, then they would decrease production in order to drive UP the price per barrel.

Regardless, the global oil market is controlled by OPEC and will always be controlled by them until the cartel is broken.

Or alternative energy makes them obsolete.

[LV426]

Actually the Canadian oil is sour oil and much of it have been refined in the Gulf Coast refineries which are designed for sour crude.

Completely fucking wrong.

Most all the Canadian Tar Sands sludge goes to the US PADD II region, which is Southern Illinois.

The reason it goes to US PADD II is because that's where the current pipelines lead.

Those pipelines carry so much Tar Sands sludge that refineries in US PADD II get a price discount because of the surplus. Because of US PADD II's geography, the oil from Alberta couldn't be sold to other refineries.

KXL was meant to bypass those PADD II refineries so that the Tar Sands sludge could be sold on the global market for far higher than US PADD II pays right now. So KXL would increase the price of oil and gasoline in the US because it will eliminate the surplus supply we currently enjoy. And we know this because it is literally what TransCanada said in their permit application.

[LV426]

Or alternative energy makes them obsolete.

Or that, yes.

[ExpressLane]

When I open your link and search for what you wrote here, I don't see those numbers at all.

So you are lying.

Again.

LYING. AGAIN.

All you fucking do here is lie.

It's there so stop lying ,stupid

Manufacturing refers to industries belonging to ISIC divisions 15-37. Value added is the net output of a sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources. The origin of value added is determined by the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), revision 3. Data are in current U.S. dollars.
U.S. manufacturing output for 2020 was $2,337.55B, a 1.21% decline from 2019.
U.S. manufacturing output for 2019 was $2,366.30B, a 1.63% increase from 2018.
U.S. manufacturing output for 2018 was $2,328.23B, a 6.2% increase from 2017.
U.S. manufacturing output for 2017 was $2,192.41B, a 4.49% increase from 2016.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...cturing-output

[ExpressLane]

Completely fucking wrong.

Most all the Canadian Tar Sands sludge goes to the US PADD II region, which is Southern Illinois.

The reason it goes to US PADD II is because that's where the current pipelines lead.

Those pipelines carry so much Tar Sands sludge that refineries in US PADD II get a price discount because of the surplus. Because of US PADD II's geography, the oil from Alberta couldn't be sold to other refineries.

KXL was meant to bypass those PADD II refineries so that the Tar Sands sludge could be sold on the global market for far higher than US PADD II pays right now. So KXL would increase the price of oil and gasoline in the US because it will eliminate the surplus supply we currently enjoy. And we know this because it is literally what TransCanada said in their permit application.

The Keystone XL pipeline "doesn’t even have any oil for America.

"https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2017/apr/16/kirsten-gillibrand/will-oil-keystone-xl-pipeline-stay-us/

MOSTLY FALSE!

[ExpressLane]

Or alternative energy makes them obsolete.

Yes they do not want the US to increase production . But no oil will never be obsolete. Medicine, plastic, clothing, fertilizer are all fossil fuel products and so is a huge amount of electricity is made with fossil fuels.