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Thread: Nuclear bluster and empty threats

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    Default Nuclear bluster and empty threats

    The Russian military in its current state is almost certainly unable to operate on a nuclear battlefield even though it has the necessary equipment and has historically trained its units to do so. The chaotic agglomeration of exhausted contract soldiers, hastily mobilized reservists, conscripts, and mercenaries that currently comprise the Russian ground forces could not function in a nuclear environment. Any areas affected by Russian tactical nuclear weapons would thus be impassible for the Russians, likely precluding Russian advances. This consideration is another factor that reduces the likelihood of Russian tactical nuclear weapons use.

    https://www.criticalthreats.org/anal...ment-october-1

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    For their sake and the sake of the people of Ukraine, I hope that the nuke thing is way overblown.

    Do you think that Putin's nutty annexation of the eastern part of Ukraine is his way of extricating his forces and ending the war?
    "Conservatism is the blind and fear-filled worship of dead radicals." -- Mark Twain

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
    The Russian military in its current state is almost certainly unable to operate on a nuclear battlefield even though it has the necessary equipment and has historically trained its units to do so. The chaotic agglomeration of exhausted contract soldiers, hastily mobilized reservists, conscripts, and mercenaries that currently comprise the Russian ground forces could not function in a nuclear environment. Any areas affected by Russian tactical nuclear weapons would thus be impassible for the Russians, likely precluding Russian advances. This consideration is another factor that reduces the likelihood of Russian tactical nuclear weapons use.

    https://www.criticalthreats.org/anal...ment-october-1
    Given the effectiveness of the Russian military for the past year, is anyone really sure Russian nukes would work? That the Oligarchs didn't sell off the plutonium for a profit?
    God bless America and those who defend our Constitution.

    "Hatred is a failure of imagination" - Graham Greene, "The Power and the Glory"

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThatOwlWoman View Post
    For their sake and the sake of the people of Ukraine, I hope that the nuke thing is way overblown.

    Do you think that Putin's nutty annexation of the eastern part of Ukraine is his way of extricating his forces and ending the war?
    I'm wondering if, should Putin give the launch order, that he isn't shot on the spot?
    God bless America and those who defend our Constitution.

    "Hatred is a failure of imagination" - Graham Greene, "The Power and the Glory"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dutch Uncle View Post
    I'm wondering if, should Putin give the launch order, that he isn't shot on the spot?
    Maybe he doesn't allow armed ppl in his proximity.
    "Conservatism is the blind and fear-filled worship of dead radicals." -- Mark Twain

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThatOwlWoman View Post
    Maybe he doesn't allow armed ppl in his proximity.
    Putin lives in a Gun-Free Zone? Isn't that dangerous? LOL

    Caligula was murdered by his own Praetorian Guard when he went too far. Jus' sayin'. LOL

    God bless America and those who defend our Constitution.

    "Hatred is a failure of imagination" - Graham Greene, "The Power and the Glory"

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThatOwlWoman View Post
    For their sake and the sake of the people of Ukraine, I hope that the nuke thing is way overblown.

    Do you think that Putin's nutty annexation of the eastern part of Ukraine is his way of extricating his forces and ending the war?
    The conventional wisdom seems to be that this frantic annexation was intended to offset the disastrous news of the Ukranian offensive in Kharkiv and Luhansk and generate some enthusiasm among Putin's ultra nationalist base. His base was really getting upset about the conduct of the war. Putin can't afford to lose the enthusiasm of his base.

    In the long term, it is hard to see what the offramp for Putin is.

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    God bless America and those who defend our Constitution.

    "Hatred is a failure of imagination" - Graham Greene, "The Power and the Glory"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dutch Uncle View Post
    Given the effectiveness of the Russian military for the past year, is anyone really sure Russian nukes would work? That the Oligarchs didn't sell off the plutonium for a profit?
    I think Putin has been privately warned that tactical nuclear strikes on Ukranians will trigger NATO air and missile strikes on occupying Russian forces in Ukraine

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
    I think Putin has been privately warned that tactical nuclear strikes on Ukranians will trigger NATO air and missile strikes on occupying Russian forces in Ukraine
    And maybe an oopsie on a Russian city near the border.
    "Conservatism is the blind and fear-filled worship of dead radicals." -- Mark Twain

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    According to several reports, including by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, as a result of the effectiveness and acceptability of USAF use of precision munitions with little collateral damage in the Kosovo conflict in what amounted to strategic destruction once only possible with nuclear weapons or massive bombing, Vladimir Putin, then-secretary of Security Council of Russia, formulated a concept ("escalate to de-escalate") of using both tactical and strategic nuclear threats and strikes to de-escalate or cause an enemy to disengage from a conventional conflict threatening what Russia considers a strategic interest.[21][22][23]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon
    Of course, if they don't disengage...................................
    " First they came for the journalists...
    We don't know what happened after that . "

    Maria Ressa.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dutch Uncle View Post
    Bluster is all Putin has now. He cannot conquer Ukraine, and he cannot even capture Kyiv, assuming NATO continues to support Ukraine.

    Behind all the bombast and bluster, there are signs Putin knows his back is against the wall and beneath the macho posturing he is actually begging Ukraine for a ceasefire.

    Putin is rushing to claim a victory and cement slender gains and sue for peace, running a dangerous political tab, regardless of the fanfare in Moscow.

    He called on Ukraine to "cease fire" immediately and "sit down at the negotiating table,"

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...cmd/index.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
    The Russian military in its current state is almost certainly unable to operate on a nuclear battlefield even though it has the necessary equipment and has historically trained its units to do so. The chaotic agglomeration of exhausted contract soldiers, hastily mobilized reservists, conscripts, and mercenaries that currently comprise the Russian ground forces could not function in a nuclear environment. Any areas affected by Russian tactical nuclear weapons would thus be impassible for the Russians, likely precluding Russian advances. This consideration is another factor that reduces the likelihood of Russian tactical nuclear weapons use.

    https://www.criticalthreats.org/anal...ment-october-1
    While that may be true the fly in the ointment seems to be Putin. The man is obsessed with bringing back the old Soviet Union, this in it 'self isn't the danger his mental state and health come into play. If he knows he is dying what has he got to lose? He won't feel the effects.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eagle_Eye View Post
    The man is obsessed with bringing back the old Soviet Union,
    That's a far cry from simply defending Russia's borders from further NATO encroachment- which is what he's doing.
    " First they came for the journalists...
    We don't know what happened after that . "

    Maria Ressa.

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    According to several reports, including by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, as a result of the effectiveness and acceptability of USAF use of precision munitions with little collateral damage in the Kosovo conflict in what amounted to strategic destruction once only possible with nuclear weapons or massive bombing, Vladimir Putin, then-secretary of Security Council of Russia, formulated a concept ("escalate to de-escalate") of using both tactical and strategic nuclear threats and strikes to de-escalate or cause an enemy to disengage from a conventional conflict threatening what Russia considers a strategic interest.[21][22][23]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon

    He made that policy years ago. It's not conjecture, not bluff- it's POLICY.
    " First they came for the journalists...
    We don't know what happened after that . "

    Maria Ressa.

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