Recession

[Rune]

In an element of irony, gas prices dropping is a good thing - but they are dropping in large part because of fear of recession.

Surging oil prices have always led to economic slowdown.
Why would this be any different?

Oil prices rise until driving slows down, then they slowly fall.
Always been that way.

[cawacko]

Surging oil prices have always led to economic slowdown.
Why would this be any different?

Oil prices rise until driving slows down, then they slowly fall.
Always been that way.

I think we are saying the same thing. The article in the OP lays out why they think there won’t be a recession. The follow up post was gas prices are dropping. I interpreted the latter post as saying lower gas prices are a sign we won’t have a recession when it reality, right now, it’s actually the opposite.

[Flash]

I think inflation itself is more to blame for inflation than the pandemic recovery.

OK, that's not funny but, I also think Corporate America has adjusted and increased their prices to a point, that it is causing them more problems in terms of competition, than it does us.

For example; Just look at all that red meat being ignored, left in the meat counters, untouched overnight- NEXT DAY- Giant HAMBURGER Sale EVERYBODY!!

I just drove through McDonalds for breakfast- I WAS THE ONLY ONE IN LINE! That has never happened to me before.

Yes, I believe people are doing without as a protest, as if to say, "No! I refuse to pay that much for that shit"!

Along with pricing us out of the market, they are pricing themselves out of business!

The price of everything is about to come back down wind-falling back to Earth.

"Retail sales data releases can have large impacts on the markets and consumer-driven sectors in particular. US Retail Sales is at a current level of 594.50B, up from 588.64B last month and up from 551.84B one year ago. This is a change of 1.00% from last month and 7.73% from one year ago."

[Guno צְבִי]

There have been 11 recessions since 1948, averaging out to about one recession every six years.

[cawacko]

"Retail sales data releases can have large impacts on the markets and consumer-driven sectors in particular. US Retail Sales is at a current level of 594.50B, up from 588.64B last month and up from 551.84B one year ago. This is a change of 1.00% from last month and 7.73% from one year ago."

Where are seeing that? Everything I’ve read has shown retail sales dropping. Because of inflation the dollar amount of sales has actually increased but the sales themselves decreased.


https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/15/...inflation.html

[cawacko]

Based on the Atlanta Fed projections, second Qtr GDP is expected to come in negative later this week. That would be two consecutive qtrs of negative growth, generally the benchmark we use to say we are in a recession. (Not the only one however.)

So it's really interesting to see the debate playing out, if these negative numbers are correct, as to whether we are in a recession. One side is arguing this has always been the rule and now you are changing the definition or the other side saying with the funky post COVID economy GDP numbers aren't telling the whole story and thus we aren't in a recession. We'll find out.

[Cypress]

Recession may not come after all, economists say

-- Economic strength defies forecasts of downturn but risks remain, experts said --

As recession forecasts have grown dire in recent months, they've faced one complication: Strong economic data.

The U.S. showed robust job growth last month, defying expectations of a slowdown and keeping the unemployment rate at a near-historic low of 3.6%. Meanwhile, retail spending, a key indicator of economic health that reflects consumer appetite, rose 1% in June, outpacing gloomier predictions -- even if some of that increase can be attributed to rising prices due to inflation.
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/...ry?id=86449369

"Put that recession talk away, and change the subject. A vibecession ain’t no recession: July payrolls came in at a huge +528k, and unemployment is down to 3.46%, the lowest in half a century." --> Economist Justin Wolfers, University of Michigan

"Amazing job growth, strong & sustainable wage growth, and slowing inflation: WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION.” --> Economist David Rothschild

More jobs created during the Biden presidency than the last three Republican administrations added up together

[Cypress]

Stagflation is out, Goldilocks is in’: Jefferies’ chief financial economist says the economy will be ‘stronger for longer’—but only to a point

I don't buy this idea that a recession is imminent, but I do think a recession is inevitable,” Markowska told Fortune.

On Monday, Jefferies’ chief financial economist, Aneta Markowska, argued that the U.S. will avoid a 1970s stagflation rerun over the coming quarters.

“It’s time to scrap the recession narrative and replace it with ‘stronger for longer.’ Stagflation is out, Goldilocks is in,” she wrote in a research note.

Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), moved to a fresh four-decade high of 9.1% in June, but Markowska believes falling commodity prices and healing supply chains will help to reduce sky-high consumer prices over the next three to six months.

That should “set the stage” for a rebound in consumer spending, causing real gross domestic product (GDP) to rise over 3% in the third quarter, she said. That would be quite the turnaround after GDP contracted in the first and second quarters, leaving many to question whether the U.S. is already in the midst of a recession.

Markowska went on to argue that this week’s CPI data will show that June was the peak for U.S. inflation, meaning the Federal Reserve will be able to slow the pace of its aggressive interest rate hikes through the end of the year

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune...er-longer/amp/

[Lionfish]

U.S. Labor Productivity Suffers Biggest Crash Ever Recorded, Labor Costs Soar Most Since 1982

[Flash]

U.S. Labor Productivity Suffers Biggest Crash Ever Recorded, Labor Costs Soar Most Since 1982

The best economists always use Breitbart for their economic news

[Lionfish]

The best economists always use Breitbart for their economic news

Don't need Breitbart,

Bill Clinton: "A Recession Is Two Quarters Of Negative Growth"

[cawacko]

The best economists always use Breitbart for their economic news

I had the same thought. To each his own of course but I’ve seen people post economic news on here from rawstory and now Breibart. Not two sources I’d recommend for that info.

[Cypress]

Don't need Breitbart,

Bill Clinton: "A Recession Is Two Quarters Of Negative Growth"

Nope -->


There’s No US Recession Until an Obscure Panel of ‘Eggheads’ Says It Is So

-- In US, two negative GDP quarters isn’t an official recession --

While many countries define an economic downturn as two consecutive quarters of negative growth for gross domestic product, the US defers this assessment to elite academics at the National Bureau of Economic Research, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, whose leaders scoff at the two-quarter benchmark as simplistic and misleading.

Rather than two negative GDP readings, the NBER is looking for a substantial decline in activity over a sustained period of time. The committee sets dates of the peaks of economic activity and troughs based on six monthly data series, including nonfarm payrolls, personal consumption spending and industrial production.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-says-it-is-so

[Flash]

Don't need Breitbart,

Bill Clinton: "A Recession Is Two Quarters Of Negative Growth"

Now Bill Clinton is a trusted authority? Don't look at biased news sources or former presidents. Read the description from people who make those decisions.

Two quarters of economic growth is usually considered the benchmark for a recession but not entirely.

Recession | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

There is a big difference between the negative growth of two consecutive quarters in 2020 and 2022.

2020
Q1: -3.9
Q2: -32.4

2022
Q1: -1.6
Q2: -0.9

[LV426]

Bill Clinton: "A Recession Is Two Quarters Of Negative Growth"

Exactly, which means Trump's tax cut caused a recession to happen before COVID since...

The U.S. Entered a Recession in February 2020
August 8, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/b...sion-2020.html