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Thread: Recession?

  1. #31 | Top
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    Quote Originally Posted by anatta View Post
    it's gonna get worse. a recession brings lay offs.
    Interest rates are going to have to equal inflation numbers to tame inflation

    People are going to lose jobs, the economy contracts, we produce less and import more because we are consumers. I dont know where this ends. but a contracting economy is a death spiral
    We don't have "inflation." We have supply problems.
    Don't be afraid to see what you see

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    Quote Originally Posted by Guille View Post
    We don't have "inflation." We have supply problems.
    ya ya. we have a contracting economy if the Atlanta Fed is correct

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    Quote Originally Posted by anatta View Post
    ya ya. we have a contracting economy if the Atlanta Fed is correct
    Supply and Demand. It's a real bitch amirite? But there is no magical money fairy changing the value of our currency. It's all supply and demand.
    Don't be afraid to see what you see

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    Quote Originally Posted by Guille View Post
    Supply and Demand. It's a real bitch amirite? But there is no magical money fairy changing the value of our currency. It's all supply and demand.
    interest rate hikes will monetize debt service.
    our cheaper dollars will be needed more not to default = less for production

    Hawkeye is actually right. Buckle up. this one is gonna be a hard landing

  5. #35 | Top
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    Quote Originally Posted by anatta View Post
    interest rate hikes will monetize debt service.
    our cheaper dollars will be needed more not to default = less for production

    Hawkeye is actually right. Buckle up. this one is gonna be a hard landing
    The dollars aren't cheaper and hawkeye is an idiot. You may be too.

    Tell me how this works. And if you say anything about gold I'm going to laugh at your dumbass forever.
    Don't be afraid to see what you see

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    Quote Originally Posted by cawacko View Post
    Cassleman is a liberal economist for The NY Times. He references the Atl Fed number which did in fact turn negative. This would be two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth which usually, but not always, is the measure for a recession.

    Because unemployment is still pretty low this recession, if official, does have a different feel to it. Unemployment is expected to rise but at least as projected not tremendously higher.


    Try and understand this troll as an apparent economic ignoramus, inflation and recessions are not limited to specifically the U.S but a global issue, and to which that lawlessly hacked in creature tRump and the un-American and un-U.S. GQP got the COVID-19 conspiracy ball rolling at killing off over 800,000 Americas and killing businesses in particular with global implications, and at being within the gutter with the internal and external enemies to wage war on all of humanity who are working with the devil and its fallen angels. Yet, to the God Almighty be the glory!

    World Economic Situation and Prospects: June 2022 Briefing, No. 161
    Global growth prospects have weakened significantly amid the war in Ukraine
    The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2022 warns that the global economy may be on the cusp of a new crisis, while still recovering from the pandemic. The war in Ukraine has upended the fragile global recovery, triggering a devastating humanitarian crisis in Europe, pushing up food and commodity prices, slowing growth globally and exacerbating inflationary pressures worldwide. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties are dampening business confidence and investment and further weakening short-term economic prospects. Against this backdrop, the world economy is now projected to grow by only 3.1 per cent in 2022 and 2023 (figure 1), marking substantial downward revisions of 0.9 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively, from our previous forecasts released in January 2022. Our baseline outlook faces major downside risks from further intensification of the war in Ukraine, new waves of the pandemic, and faster-than-expected monetary tightening by developed country central banks.

    The downgrades in growth prospects are broad-based. Growth in the United States is forecast to slow to 2.6 per cent in 2022 due to high inflationary pressures, aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and a strong US dollar, which is weighing on net exports. In China, GDP is projected to expand by 4.5 per cent, a downward revision of 0.7 percentage points, with stringent zero COVID-19 policies adversely affecting growth prospects. Meanwhile, there is an exceptionally heavy toll on the economy of the European Union: its GDP is projected to expand by 2.7 per cent in 2022, 1.2 percentage points lower than expected in January.

    The economic prospects for the Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia are also sharply downgraded. The Russian Federation’s economy is projected to contract by about 10 per cent in 2022. Amid massive destruction of infrastructure, population displacement and disruption of economic activities, the Ukrainian economy is projected to contract by 30 to 50 per cent in 2022:

    https://www.un.org/development/desa/...four%20decades.

    Yet, I would not suggest with a President Biden hater and dumbass attitude to miss the mark on the following:

    The Biden Boom: Economic Recovery in 2021
    President Joe Biden took office one year ago amid one of the worst economies in generations, but the U.S. economy has since made tremendous progress toward recovery, and workers are benefiting.

    January 20 marks one year since President Joe Biden took office: It’s time to take stock of the historic economic boom under his leadership.

    Though the United States faces serious economic challenges amid the ongoing global pandemic, 2021 was an extraordinary year of economic growth and recovery. The country saw record job gains and an unprecedented drop in unemployment. The economy likely grew faster than in any year since 1984, as measured by real gross domestic product (GDP). In 2021, the economy not only regained all pandemic-related GDP losses—it also surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Despite elevated inflation, Americans’ disposable incomes were higher in 2021 in real (inflation-adjusted) terms than they were in 2019 and 2020. Additionally, by many important measures such as savings and bank balances, Americans are more financially secure. The United States also made dramatic progress in lowering its exceptionally high rate of child poverty.

    None of this was inevitable. Rather, it was the result of bold policies that bolstered the recovery and provided direct aid to households, most importantly the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) and the COVID-19 vaccine program. Much of this aid was disbursed to families hit hardest by the devastating economic impact of the pandemic: the unemployed, the poor, and families struggling with the high costs of raising children. Bold federal action helped families make ends meet through additional stimulus checks; expanded unemployment insurance benefits; expanded monthly child tax credit payments; and other policies. These policies addressed weaknesses in the social safety net that became more acute during the pandemic but existed well beforehand. And many of these interventions were temporary. Much work remains to not only ensure a strong recovery but also to extend progress beyond the pre-pandemic status quo toward an economy that works for all."

    https://www.americanprogress.org/art...overy-in-2021/
    Last edited by gemini104104; 07-01-2022 at 01:29 AM.

  7. #37 | Top
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guille View Post
    The dollars aren't cheaper and hawkeye is an idiot. You may be too.

    Tell me how this works. And if you say anything about gold I'm going to laugh at your dumbass forever.
    nothing about gold. im logging off,
    modern economies are controlled by how much money is "printed" (digitally created ).
    whatever the actual GDP is vs how many dollars are "in print" (circulation)
    determines the value of the currency. and currency are traded against one and another

    Dollars arent backed by gold, they are backed by how much we can produce (GDP)
    More dollars or less GDP ( or a disastrous combination of both) make the money have less purchasing power

  8. #38 | Top
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    Quote Originally Posted by anatta View Post
    nothing about gold. im logging off, modern economies are controlled by how much money is "printed" (digitally created ). whatever the actual GDP is vs how many dollars are "in print" (circulation) determines the value of the currenc.

    Dollars arent backed by gold, they are backed by how much we can produce (GDP)
    More dollars or less GDP ( or a disastrous combination of both) make the money have less purchasing power
    You are wrong about the dollars but you are right about logging off because I was about to spank your ignorant ass.
    Don't be afraid to see what you see

  9. #39 | Top
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guille View Post
    You are wrong about the dollars but you are right about logging off because I was about to spank your ignorant ass.
    What do you plan on doing about your ignorant ass????????????????????
    Lock Him Up

  10. #40 | Top
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guille View Post
    You think cawacko is a Trump guy?

    He's not and in a thread about economics you might want to pay attention to what he has to say.
    Yes, i do believe Cawackoff is a typical Trumptard!

    Next question?

  11. #41 | Top
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geeko Sportivo View Post

    Next question?
    Does your psychiatrist know you're off your meds?
    Don't be afraid to see what you see

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    Quote Originally Posted by Geeko Sportivo View Post
    No- I am not wealthy!

    I have lived 70 years of watching both good and bad economic times, and trust me- I have been a victim and benefactor to many of them.

    Economies eventually work their way through all Bad economic times. There are millions of factors and dynamics that have to do with how good or how bad an economy can be.

    It's not a switch a president has- he can flick to fix a bad economic time- it often times is not even a switch at the voters booth that fixes bad economies.

    Sometimes- it is patience- Sometimes it's perseverance- sometimes it's making the right decisions for you and your family- SOMETIMES IT'S JUST BLIND LUCK!

    But Pointing fingers does not help economies. Remaining disgruntled over losing an election doesn't help anything! Constantly blaming your political rivals doesn't resolve anything!

    Now again- Tell us what you would do to help resolve the inflation problems we are experiencing!

    Let me assure you- You want influence with others?- STOP THE FINGER-POINTING AND TELL US WHAT YOU WOULD DO TO HELP RESOLVE ISSUES.

    Constantly nagging about your political adversaries is just politics as usual. Political fights end up as Farting contests!

    You want a farting contest! Go ahead- You go first! Let's see how our farting contest helps our economy!
    Repeal all of the Executive Orders made on 1/20/2017, that would be a good start. Not a 1 does anything good for Americans.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Guille View Post
    We don't have "inflation." We have supply problems.
    Supply problems brought on by Covid shutdowns and Biden's hostile policies towards oil production in America.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Dillon View Post
    Repeal all of the Executive Orders made on 1/20/2017, that would be a good start. Not a 1 does anything good for Americans.
    Name one that is affecting you negatively and personally and tell us how!

    We get it- YOU HATE BIDEN!

    This is just more politically motivated hatespeak.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cawacko View Post
    Cassleman is a liberal economist for The NY Times. He references the Atl Fed number which did in fact turn negative. This would be two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth which usually, but not always, is the measure for a recession.

    Because unemployment is still pretty low this recession, if official, does have a different feel to it. Unemployment is expected to rise but at least as projected not tremendously higher.


    We have not had a second quarter of negative growth as of yet. It's possible that we will, but this entire 'recession' is not normal in any way. It's so much driven by supply issues. I do think we are about to overcorrect on inflation and may see a mild recession, but I don't think it's inevitable. Much of the gloom and doom is coming from either a) people who will benefit from a recession or b) people that have absolutely no understanding of economics. I don't necessarily think negative GDP is a good measure because it followed a year of massive GDP growth, with three of the four quarters at over 6% annualized. The slowdown was due more to Covid money running out and a significant spike in the Omicron variant. I don't see this as a normal cyclical downturn.

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