The philosophical implications of exponential growth

[Cypress]

If you could fold a piece of paper in half 50 times, how thick would it be?

[Cypress]

About 112,000 kilometers, or more than half way to the Sun.

[Cypress]

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Humans are woefully inept at intuitively grasping exponential growth functions. Laypersons as well as political decision makers grossly underestimate exponential growth, regardless of being presented with numerical, graphical or non-quantitative representations. At the same time, however, humans are overconfident despite their poor judgements. The so-called ‘exponential growth bias' is of new relevance in the context of COVID-19, because it explains why humans have fundamental difficulties to grasp the magnitude of a spreading epidemic.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/d...98/rsos.201574

[Cypress]

"Humans are woefully inept at intuitively grasping exponential growth functions. At the same time, however, humans are overconfident despite their poor judgements."

This is partially why Darth "61" Omar was incredulous that COVID hospitalizations and mortalities could easily run into the millions.

[evince]

It’s too sciencey

[Cypress]

It’s too sciencey

Exponential growth is generally outside our everyday experience, and is difficult to mentally grasp in a tangible way beyond an abstract mathmatical concept.

[evince]

Which is why it’s so important to trust the people who actually work all this stuff out


The ones who just want to know the result for the edification for man kind


Truth seekers


There are idiots who attack the truth seekers as having ulterior motives


They are often lead to that belief by someone who wants to fleece them

And they are participating in their own fleecing

[Celticguy]

If you could fold a piece of paper in half 50 times, how thick would it be?

what is the thickness of the paper ?

[Cypress]

what is the thickness of the paper ?

Just regular printer paper.

Supposedly if you were able to fold it in half 109 times, it would be as thick as the observable universe, though I haven't seen the math verified on that particular example.

[evince]

First fold doubles the thickness second fold doubles that thickness

And on and on and on





Kinda like the lies of Fox News and the thickness of its viewers brains on lies

[Celticguy]

Just regular printer paper.

Supposedly if you were able to fold it in half 109 times, it would be as thick as the observable universe, though I haven't seen the math verified on that particular example.

not buying that.
a ream of paper is 500 sheets and is < 2" thick

[Cypress]

not buying that.
a ream of paper is 500 sheets and is < 2" thick

That's thickness which increases linearly, not exponentially.

[evince]

Maybe there is something special about trump supporters

[evince]

not buying that.
a ream of paper is 500 sheets and is < 2" thick

Wow


Am I psychic?


I answered him way before he showed he was confused


Actually I realized some might kinda get a little distracted and not think it through enough to understand the example


It’s a great one


Every child has tried to fold a paper as many times as the could


and realized how quickly it gets just to thick

[Cypress]

If one sheet of paper is 0.1mm thick, and each fold doubles the collective thickness, the formula for 50 folds is 0.1 x 2 exponent 50. That should work out to 112 million km.