China has got to be doing this math

[Walt]

Russia has 1,014,000 regular troops, 2,000,000 reserve troops, and 554,000 paramilitary troops, for a combined number of 3,568,000. For a war with Ukraine, they could call up the reserves, but that would be difficult, and they have other obligations, so a more realistic number would be half a million troops they can use against Ukraine.

Ukraine had 209,000 regular troops, 900,000 reserve troops, and 102,000 paramilitary troops, for a combined number of 1,211,000. Not only could every last one of those troops be used against Russia, but a lot more are being quickly trained to work against the Russians. These troops will not be well trained, so might be called para-paramilitary, but the numbers have got to be above 4 million. I must stress we are not talking about 4 million well trained troops, but we are talking about a force 20 times larger in numbers than the regular troops.

Russia has a land border with Ukraine, and with a compliant Belarus, has a border within a hundred miles of Ukraine's capital Kyiv.

Russians were not welcomed as liberators. The Ukrainians have thrown everything they can at the Russian invaders. The Ukraine will not become part of Russia. This has all been a terrible mess.

China has 2,185,000 regular troops, 1,170,000 reserve troops, and 660,000 paramilitary troops, for a combined number of 4,015,000. They might be able to call up the reservists and paramilitary troops to take care of their other obligations giving them 2 million troops to bring against Taiwan.

Taiwan has 163,000 regular troops, 1,657,000 reserve troops, and 11,800 paramilitary troops, for a combined number of 1,831,800. They would be using all those troops against China, and would find far more. Huge numbers of the population went through military training and then aged out of reserves, or are going through pre-enlistment training. Also some basic/fun military training is common for civilians (including women). Taiwan has half the population of Ukraine, so could not expect as many new volunteers. They might only be able to get to 3 million all told.

There is over a hundred miles of ocean between China with no cover. The Chinese would need absolute air supremacy to not be completely wiped out in the crossing. There could be no missiles allowed in Taiwan. Taiwan has had a lot of time to hide missiles, so it is going to be hard to find them all.

Taiwan has been independent for 73 years, and assuming this happens in the future will be independent for even longer. Ukraine has only been independent for 31 years. We could expect the Taiwanese to even be less likely to greet the Chinese as liberators. Taiwan has a working democratic government, where Ukraine was still forming their democratic government. Taiwan has been expecting this invasion for literally 73 years, and is very prepared.

You will doubtless be saying there are a million variables I am not considering, and you would be very right.... BUT, that falls into my last point. The Chinese are far less risk takers than Putin is. Putin is very willing to throw the dice and see how it comes up. China wants a sure win.

Would China risk sending 2 million troops across an ocean they can be wiped out on, to attack 3 million moderately well trained, and extremely motivated troops who have been preparing for this for the better part of a century?

But what if the Chinese try to starve or bomb the Taiwanese out? The Taiwanese have a greater share of their economy in foreign reserves than any country with the possible exception of a few small oil rich countries. They have the largest per capita food stores in the world. They have been making bomb shelters for longer than most of us have been alive.

Sometimes brutalizing a country makes them want to surrender, but often it makes them want to fight harder.

China will get better technology in the future, but also anyone who remembers a link between China and Taiwan will slowly die. In 27 years, there will probably be no one alive who still remembers the time that the two countries were linked.



In short, the Ukrainians are fighting not just for their own protection, but for the protection of people living around the world. Russia is far less likely to invade Finland, Estonia, or Poland seeing what the Ukrainians were willing and able to do. China has also got to be doing the math right now, and wondering if is even possible. That is the real victory, convincing your enemy not to even try.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tary_personnel

[Jack]

China seeing Russia ostracized from the Global Community is also a factor being noticed by China.

[Walt]

China seeing Russia ostracized from the Global Community is also a factor being noticed by China.

China is looking for a way to invade Taiwan, but I doubt it is seeing a way in Putin's Ukrainian failure. I just do not believe the Chinese will try anything big until someone else has tested it successfully.