Is crypto currency the future?

**Doc Dutch** · 01-14-2022, 05:32 AM

Originally Posted by Walt

They also mistakenly think it is completely private. There are a lot of alt right losers who have gotten money from Russia who will soon realize their mistake.

I'm fine with the stupid being arrested.

**Walt** · 01-14-2022, 05:36 AM

My two cents on distributed ledgers/smart contracts:

Right now, we have the most extensive world trade system ever. It is easy to move goods and services almost anywhere on earth, and to pay for them easily. More amazingly, contract disputes are well handled, without allowing local courts to rip off foreigners. So why do we need distributed ledgers/smart contracts?

That is all works because of a few large international banks. They are so complex no one really knows where the risk is, or even where they are making their money. There is no way to ring fence their operations, because they must by definition be inter-jurisdictional. It would not be clear which government should bail them out, if they failed.

So right now, I see distributed ledgers/smart contracts as a backup in case we lose our international finance system.

In the future, it might be a way to democratize international business. People too small to be supported by the international banks could trade internationally with ease... MAYBE. But who knows.

**Walt** · 01-14-2022, 05:56 AM

Originally Posted by Dutch Uncle

I'm fine with the stupid being arrested.

If criminals were smart, they could make money without having to commit crimes. All the fiction books have criminal masterminds, like Professor James Moriarty, but the reality is criminals are very stupid.... And thankfully so.

**Doc Dutch** · 01-14-2022, 06:08 AM

Originally Posted by Walt

If criminals were smart, they could make money without having to commit crimes. All the fiction books have criminal masterminds, like Professor James Moriarty, but the reality is criminals are very stupid.... And thankfully so.

Agreed. The real crooks put on a suit and go to DC or NYC.

**goat** · 01-14-2022, 08:35 AM

Originally Posted by Walt

Yes, but they can snatch you, so that is not much better. It becomes like a foreign bank account.

You can have a foreign bank account, and some countries will refuse to hand the money over to the US Government. But if the US Government finds out you have the bank account, they can arrest you and hold you until you hand over the money.

You refuse to accept the fact that the world knows the federal reserve is insolvent. Everyone is running away from the dollar. The markets are about to collapse for the 6th time in 35 years. Zombie companies are being kept buoyant with endless QE. Bitcoin City is preparing to sell Bitcoin bonds paying 6.7%. It's all about risk and reward.

**Walt** · 01-14-2022, 08:56 AM

Originally Posted by goat

You refuse to accept the fact that the world knows the federal reserve is insolvent. Everyone is running away from the dollar. The markets are about to collapse for the 6th time in 35 years. Zombie companies are being kept buoyant with endless QE. Bitcoin City is preparing to sell Bitcoin bonds paying 6.7%. It's all about risk and reward.

The Dollar is still the international currency, and there is no evidence that anyone will replace it.

**goat** · 01-14-2022, 09:13 AM

Originally Posted by Walt

The Dollar is still the international currency, and there is no evidence that anyone will replace it.

All the evidence points to the dollar going to zero. Markets are projected to lose 45% of their QE value. US national debt will be $50 trillion in 8 years. This is starting to look a lot like the dotcom scam.

**Walt** · 01-14-2022, 09:17 AM

Originally Posted by goat

All the evidence points to the dollar going to zero.

I seriously doubt that. It is extremely unlikely the Dollar is going to zero any time soon, and there is certainly no evidence that it is.

**goat** · 01-14-2022, 09:27 AM

Originally Posted by Walt

I seriously doubt that. It is extremely unlikely the Dollar is going to zero any time soon, and there is certainly no evidence that it is.

The dollar is projecting to go to zero sometime around 2030.

**Walt** · 01-14-2022, 09:33 AM

Originally Posted by goat

The dollar is projecting to go to zero sometime around 2030.

You can get a 30 year mortgage, which goes through 2052, at between 2 and 3 percent. You may project that the Dollar will go to zero in 2030, but the markets are predicting that it will do fine.

**goat** · 01-14-2022, 09:51 AM

Originally Posted by Walt

You can get a 30 year mortgage, which goes through 2052, at between 2 and 3 percent. You may project that the Dollar will go to zero in 2030, but the markets are predicting that it will do fine.

Go back and compare the dotcom scam to what we see today with the Uber and Peloton scam. Who the hell is investing in all these red ink companies? The dotcom scam resulted in the nasdaq dropping 90% in a very short time. All these millennial investors are about to learn a painful lesson on how the game is played.

**Walt** · 01-14-2022, 10:16 AM

Originally Posted by goat

Go back and compare the dotcom scam to what we see today with the Uber and Peloton scam. Who the hell is investing in all these red ink companies? The dotcom scam resulted in the nasdaq dropping 90% in a very short time. All these millennial investors are about to learn a painful lesson on how the game is played.

The Nasdaq Composite fell by 78%, which is a lot, but not the 90% of your claim. It caused almost no inflation. Inflation was very low at the time.

The Dot Com Bubble was bad for me... But it certainly was not a systemic threat like the Great Recession, 7 years later. Even if Uber and Peloton collapse completely, they are only 0.4% of the market or so. We would hardly notice it.

Do not get me wrong, the market is overvalued, and will contract (sooner or later), but that is hardly a disaster.

**goat** · 01-14-2022, 10:49 AM

Originally Posted by Walt

The Nasdaq Composite fell by 78%, which is a lot, but not the 90% of your claim. It caused almost no inflation. Inflation was very low at the time.

The Dot Com Bubble was bad for me... But it certainly was not a systemic threat like the Great Recession, 7 years later. Even if Uber and Peloton collapse completely, they are only 0.4% of the market or so. We would hardly notice it.

Do not get me wrong, the market is overvalued, and will contract (sooner or later), but that is hardly a disaster.

Anytime 90% of an industry goes bankrupt, it's considered a scam. There are thousands of companies like Uber and Peloton that never made a profit yet continue to get huge investments. Who are these inventors? Airbnb and Uber alone could start a dotcom type crash that sends the entire gig economy into a downward spiral. That won't be good for home and auto ownership.

**Walt** · 01-14-2022, 11:02 AM

Originally Posted by goat

Anytime 90% of an industry goes bankrupt, it's considered a scam.

90% of the tech business did not go bankrupt. It was mostly loss of value, without bankruptcy. For instance, Cisco lost 86% of its market value, but did not go bankrupt. They were unreasonably overvalued, and that was adjusted by the market. Their business continued to generate a profit, so they had no need of bankruptcy protection.

**goat** · 01-14-2022, 11:32 AM

Originally Posted by Walt

90% of the tech business did not go bankrupt. It was mostly loss of value, without bankruptcy. For instance, Cisco lost 86% of its market value, but did not go bankrupt. They were unreasonably overvalued, and that was adjusted by the market. Their business continued to generate a profit, so they had no need of bankruptcy protection.

Airbnb and Uber are also unreasonably overvalued yet continue to get huge investments that will lead to something other than a typical market adjustment. Again, economists are projecting a 45% drop in the markets. Bitcoin is expected to drop 60%. That would be a good time for anyone who understands risk/reward to get in.