Few thoughts on Inflation;

[archives]

Inflation panic? Consumer confidence in the dumps? You wouldn’t know it from U.S. retail sales, since they just rose for a third month in a row, signaling households aren’t done spending. The value of overall retail purchases increased 1.7% last month, the most in seven months, following an upwardly revised 0.8% advance in September.

So how does one square that with the recent drop in consumer confidence? Well, the old axiom of watching what people do rather than what they say is a good starting point. Whine as they might, U.S. consumers are behaving right now as if everything is just fine

Wall Street seems to think so, too. Stocks rose on those retail sales numbers, with results from industry giants Walmart and Home Depot showing strong demand. The retail figures came alongside better-than-estimated factory output and homebuilder confidence. “It’s crystal clear that inflation isn’t standing in the way of consumers,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial. “Despite some hiccups on the labor market and inflation fronts, this could serve as the vote of confidence investors needed signaling that the economy is still chugging along nicely.”

Not quite the narrative Fox delivers daily

[ThatOwlWoman]

I shop at Meijer, a large chain of supermarket/household goods stores in the Great Lakes region. I eavesdropped on a staff pep talk a couple weeks ago in the baby/infant dept. The store manager was telling the staff that the store, which opened in 2018, had had its best year yet so far in 2021 -- and that's with all the shortages. Another positive sign that we've noted locally is that there are fewer help wanted signs on doors/windows.

[dukkha]

Inflation panic? Consumer confidence in the dumps? You wouldn’t know it from U.S. retail sales, since they just rose for a third month in a row, signaling households aren’t done spending. The value of overall retail purchases increased 1.7% last month, the most in seven months, following an upwardly revised 0.8% advance in September.

So how does one square that with the recent drop in consumer confidence? Well, the old axiom of watching what people do rather than what they say is a good starting point. Whine as they might, U.S. consumers are behaving right now as if everything is just fine

Wall Street seems to think so, too. Stocks rose on those retail sales numbers, with results from industry giants Walmart and Home Depot showing strong demand. The retail figures came alongside better-than-estimated factory output and homebuilder confidence. “It’s crystal clear that inflation isn’t standing in the way of consumers,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial. “Despite some hiccups on the labor market and inflation fronts, this could serve as the vote of confidence investors needed signaling that the economy is still chugging along nicely.”

link. is everyone too freaking LayZ?

The problem isnt sales is delivery of the product and the fact inflation is just beginning.
Yellin finally copped to inflation might moderate end of next year. that's more then supply chains snags

The FED has increased dollar 36% ( currency in circulation) and wage gains are lost to inflation and then some

But I dont see traditional stagflation either. What do the Dems want? more government spending-
unneeded and unwanted

[Yakuda]

Inflation panic? Consumer confidence in the dumps? You wouldn’t know it from U.S. retail sales, since they just rose for a third month in a row, signaling households aren’t done spending. The value of overall retail purchases increased 1.7% last month, the most in seven months, following an upwardly revised 0.8% advance in September.

So how does one square that with the recent drop in consumer confidence? Well, the old axiom of watching what people do rather than what they say is a good starting point. Whine as they might, U.S. consumers are behaving right now as if everything is just fine

Wall Street seems to think so, too. Stocks rose on those retail sales numbers, with results from industry giants Walmart and Home Depot showing strong demand. The retail figures came alongside better-than-estimated factory output and homebuilder confidence. “It’s crystal clear that inflation isn’t standing in the way of consumers,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial. “Despite some hiccups on the labor market and inflation fronts, this could serve as the vote of confidence investors needed signaling that the economy is still chugging along nicely.”

Not quite the narrative Fox delivers daily

No they are buying shit they have to but are paying more for it. Thats why confidence is down. What should happen when gas prices soar? Everyone stay the fuck home? The stock market isn't an indicator of economic health but it makes politicans feel better to claim they made it go up. That goes for trump as well btw.

[Walt]

Inflation panic? Consumer confidence in the dumps? You wouldn’t know it from U.S. retail sales, since they just rose for a third month in a row, signaling households aren’t done spending. The value of overall retail purchases increased 1.7% last month, the most in seven months, following an upwardly revised 0.8% advance in September.

So how does one square that with the recent drop in consumer confidence? Well, the old axiom of watching what people do rather than what they say is a good starting point. Whine as they might, U.S. consumers are behaving right now as if everything is just fine

Wall Street seems to think so, too. Stocks rose on those retail sales numbers, with results from industry giants Walmart and Home Depot showing strong demand. The retail figures came alongside better-than-estimated factory output and homebuilder confidence. “It’s crystal clear that inflation isn’t standing in the way of consumers,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial. “Despite some hiccups on the labor market and inflation fronts, this could serve as the vote of confidence investors needed signaling that the economy is still chugging along nicely.”

Not quite the narrative Fox delivers daily

There is a major disconnect here between claimed future inflation, and mortgage rates. Current mortgage rates are at 3 or 4 percent. If inflation is permanently high, banks will start collapsing as they lose money.

Most of the inflation is clustered in a few items. For instance, if you exclude used car prices and airline tickets, inflation drops by more than 1%. Used cars are expensive because new cars are having trouble finding very cheap computer chips. Airline tickets are expensive, because mainly the most expensive tickets are being sold. These are not monetary issues. It does not feel like "real inflation."

What makes me think inflation might be permanently high is that wages are going up. That means that there might be some inflation higher than 2%, but certainly not the unbounded inflation that some are claiming.

I keep seeing alt right posters predicting hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is annualized inflation above 10,000%... AND WE HAVE NOT EVEN SEEN DOUBLE DIGIT INFLATION!!! Much less triple digit inflation, much less quadruple digit inflation, and that would not even be hyperinflation.

[Truth Detector]

Inflation panic? Consumer confidence in the dumps? You wouldn’t know it from U.S. retail sales, since they just rose for a third month in a row, signaling households aren’t done spending. The value of overall retail purchases increased 1.7% last month, the most in seven months, following an upwardly revised 0.8% advance in September.

So how does one square that with the recent drop in consumer confidence? Well, the old axiom of watching what people do rather than what they say is a good starting point. Whine as they might, U.S. consumers are behaving right now as if everything is just fine

Wall Street seems to think so, too. Stocks rose on those retail sales numbers, with results from industry giants Walmart and Home Depot showing strong demand. The retail figures came alongside better-than-estimated factory output and homebuilder confidence. “It’s crystal clear that inflation isn’t standing in the way of consumers,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial. “Despite some hiccups on the labor market and inflation fronts, this could serve as the vote of confidence investors needed signaling that the economy is still chugging along nicely.”

Economists with far more education than a political blog troll would disagree with you. Inflation is a major concern. Particularly when it is at a 30 year high. I am old enough to remember the malaise of the Carter years when the term "stagflation" was coined.

Much of what we are seeing now is heading that direction.

So that brings us to the lie filled, and frankly, quite moronic narrative that suggests that if the Federal Government spends another $2 plus trillion, inflation will be tamed and GDP will skyrocket. That's moron math. There is ZERO evidence as far back as memory that governments can spend their way to utopia. In fact, the exact opposite is true. Governments who destroy businesses and print money to spend on social welfareism intended to buy votes lead to recession, societal decline and eventually depression.

I am always bemused when socialist leftists use the stock market as their evidence while decrying the wealthy as the enemy. So if this moron math were true, why stop at $2 trillion? Why not spend $10 trillion which, according to moron math, would be five times better!

Not quite the narrative Fox delivers daily

What is this FOX narrative you think is delivered daily?

[Truth Detector]

I shop at Meijer, a large chain of supermarket/household goods stores in the Great Lakes region. I eavesdropped on a staff pep talk a couple weeks ago in the baby/infant dept. The store manager was telling the staff that the store, which opened in 2018, had had its best year yet so far in 2021 -- and that's with all the shortages. Another positive sign that we've noted locally is that there are fewer help wanted signs on doors/windows.

I am always amused when leftists use personal anecdotes as if it were proof of how things are really going.

[Truth Detector]

No they are buying shit they have to but are paying more for it. Thats why confidence is down. What should happen when gas prices soar? Everyone stay the fuck home? The stock market isn't an indicator of economic health but it makes politicans feel better to claim they made it go up. That goes for trump as well btw.

I love it when morons in the media declare that Americans can afford it because they saved money during the pandemic.

[Bulletbob]

Inflation panic? Consumer confidence in the dumps? You wouldn’t know it from U.S. retail sales, since they just rose for a third month in a row, signaling households aren’t done spending. The value of overall retail purchases increased 1.7% last month, the most in seven months, following an upwardly revised 0.8% advance in September.

So how does one square that with the recent drop in consumer confidence? Well, the old axiom of watching what people do rather than what they say is a good starting point. Whine as they might, U.S. consumers are behaving right now as if everything is just fine

Wall Street seems to think so, too. Stocks rose on those retail sales numbers, with results from industry giants Walmart and Home Depot showing strong demand. The retail figures came alongside better-than-estimated factory output and homebuilder confidence. “It’s crystal clear that inflation isn’t standing in the way of consumers,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial. “Despite some hiccups on the labor market and inflation fronts, this could serve as the vote of confidence investors needed signaling that the economy is still chugging along nicely.”

Not quite the narrative Fox delivers daily

Yea only if your a idiot you wouldnt notice the higher prices for gasoline cars food services etc . Perhaps if you pulled your head out of bidens ass you would notice.

[Bulletbob]

I shop at Meijer, a large chain of supermarket/household goods stores in the Great Lakes region. I eavesdropped on a staff pep talk a couple weeks ago in the baby/infant dept. The store manager was telling the staff that the store, which opened in 2018, had had its best year yet so far in 2021 -- and that's with all the shortages. Another positive sign that we've noted locally is that there are fewer help wanted signs on doors/windows.

Great lakes and you shop at meijer thanks

[Truth Detector]

There is a major disconnect here between claimed future inflation, and mortgage rates. Current mortgage rates are at 3 or 4 percent. If inflation is permanently high, banks will start collapsing as they lose money.

Most of the inflation is clustered in a few items. For instance, if you exclude used car prices and airline tickets, inflation drops by more than 1%. Used cars are expensive because new cars are having trouble finding very cheap computer chips. Airline tickets are expensive, because mainly the most expensive tickets are being sold. These are not monetary issues. It does not feel like "real inflation."

You forgot gas prices through the roof and food prices skyrocketing. How predictable.

What makes me think inflation might be permanently high is that wages are going up. That means that there might be some inflation higher than 2%, but certainly not the unbounded inflation that some are claiming.

Wrong; the cause of inflation is devaluing your currency by printing more money than the economy needs.

There are two main causes of inflation: demand-pull and cost-push. Both are responsible for a general rise in prices in an economy. Right now we are witnessing BOTH.

I keep seeing alt right posters predicting hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is annualized inflation above 10,000%... AND WE HAVE NOT EVEN SEEN DOUBLE DIGIT INFLATION!!! Much less triple digit inflation, much less quadruple digit inflation, and that would not even be hyperinflation.

What you are posting is a strawman.

[Truth Detector]

Yea only if your a idiot you wouldnt notice the higher prices for gasoline cars food services etc . Perhaps if you pulled your head out of bidens ass you would notice.

[Yakuda]

I love it when morons in the media declare that Americans can afford it because they saved money during the pandemic.

They think everyone is as stupid as they are.

[Walt]

You forgot gas prices through the roof

We got used to the lower Obama level prices. They have returned to Bush levels now.

But once again, gasoline is just one item. We are seeing broad inflation, but a lot more tame broad inflation than the average inflation you refer to. There are definite inflation spikes.

and food prices skyrocketing

Beer prices have fallen... Beer is a form of food.

Wrong; the cause of inflation is devaluing your currency by printing more money than the economy needs.

The primary causes of inflation in our economy is not money printed, or even money created electronically (more common than actual printing), but the velocity of money and expectations of inflation. The velocity of money is easy to explain. If a dollar bill is spent 100 times in a year, it shows up in the statistics as $100. If it is spent no times, it shows up in the statistics as $0.

There is some of that, causing slightly higher than 2% inflation (remember 2% is the goal here). No one is denying that. But the used cars prices going up are about a shortage of new cars caused by a shortage of cheap computer chips. That has nothing to do with monetary policy, and is adding a noticeable amount of inflation.

[Truth Detector]

We got used to the lower Obama level prices. They have returned to Bush levels now.

Bullshit strawman and deflection.

But once again, gasoline is just one item. We are seeing broad inflation, but a lot more tame broad inflation than the average inflation you refer to. There are definite inflation spikes.

Inflation is at 30 year highs. Calling it tame is moronic and suggests that you are either stupid, or dishonest.

Beer prices have fallen... Beer is a form of food.

Absurdity; the last desperate refuge for the ignorant, the dishonest and the stupid. Yay you!

The primary causes of inflation in our economy is not money printed, or even money created electronically (more common than actual printing), but the velocity of money and expectations of inflation. The velocity of money is easy to explain. If a dollar bill is spent 100 times in a year, it shows up in the statistics as $100. If it is spent no times, it shows up in the statistics as $0.

Another example of your lack of education and proving you don't know what the F you are talking about.

There is some of that, causing slightly higher than 2% inflation (remember 2% is the goal here). No one is denying that. But the used cars prices going up are about a shortage of new cars caused by a shortage of cheap computer chips. That has nothing to do with monetary policy, and is adding a noticeable amount of inflation.

News for the moron:

The CPI has surged by 6.2% since last October, according to DOL data. The so-called "core index," or measure for all items except the more volatile food and energy indices, rose 4.6% over the last 12 months, the DOL's data indicates. This represents the largest one-year increase since August 1991.
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amer...ry?id=81110162